0Z GFS....Arrgh!

[MWatkins]

The slowdown we have seen tonight is significantly affecting the 0Z GFS.

Now...the model wants to skirt the coast...keeping the hurricane mostly off shore through 48 hours...then take 1/3 of the system into SE/SC Fl...then crawl it north through 60 hours...before dragging the core of it in over north-central FL in 72 hours.

I betha it lifts the hurricane back out over the Atlantic after that but I dont plan to stay up to see the extended solution.

This slow down is going to scatter the globals...I can assure you. And if the sytem goes stationary in the next 24 hour...well...I'll get into that tomorrow.

MW

[Matthew5]

This hurricane is playing some games with us

[yoda]

The slowdown we have seen tonight is significantly affecting the 0Z GFS.

Now...the model wants to skirt the coast...keeping the hurricane mostly off shore through 48 hours...then take 1/3 of the system into SE/SC Fl...then crawl it north through 60 hours...before dragging the core of it in over north-central FL in 72 hours.

I betha it lifts the hurricane back out over the Atlantic after that but I dont plan to stay up to see the extended solution.

This slow down is going to scatter the globals...I can assure you. And if the sytem goes stationary in the next 24 hour...well...I'll get into that tomorrow.

MW

Yes, I know. I can't wait to see what happens if they become stationary as you say above.

Through 84 hrs...
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[mobilebay]

The slowdown we have seen tonight is significantly affecting the 0Z GFS.

Now...the model wants to skirt the coast...keeping the hurricane mostly off shore through 48 hours...then take 1/3 of the system into SE/SC Fl...then crawl it north through 60 hours...before dragging the core of it in over north-central FL in 72 hours.

I betha it lifts the hurricane back out over the Atlantic after that but I dont plan to stay up to see the extended solution.

This slow down is going to scatter the globals...I can assure you. And if the sytem goes stationary in the next 24 hour...well...I'll get into that tomorrow.

MW

Mike The only difference from the 18Z run is it is a little to the right from the begining. Compare the two. All the features on the model are in the exact same place the last three runs. Just go up 6 hours with the next run. It wen't it little east from 12Z to 18Z also.

[JQ Public]

looks like she's gonna go through the daytona beach/cocoa beach areas if the same path continues.

[mobilebay]

Lets see what the CMC, UKMET, NOGAPS and EURO have to say. IF they begin to turn more right then I will buy this scenerio. THe GFS has not handled this hurricane well at all.

[shortwave]

mike, how likely of a scenario is that solution for you given its current location, strength and movement?

[yoda]

Well Mike at 96 hours, here it is... not over the Atlantic, but in the FL/GA area...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

[jagesq]

Wow i need to go to bed, i must be hallucinating because I see her heading north east in the last frame or two.

[MWatkins]

Please see...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41004

For an answer. Maybe the glodals and the GFDL wont scatter at all and I'll be very wrong...but I'm thinking this will break the model coalition we have been seeing lately.

MW

[Dmetal81]

CMC has changed its tune also, this could be very bad.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

Now runs it up the coast of Florida instead of across the peninsula.

[yoda]

I see. Thanks Mike. I will be watching the models closely.

[MWatkins]

Nogaps too...check out the 3 day plot....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

MW

[yoda]

CMC has changed its tune also, this could be very bad.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

Now runs it up the coast of Florida instead of across the peninsula.

Not really... at the 50s in hours it makes landfall in C FL. What I can't understand is it goes to the panhandle... moves West.. and then stalls in the MI/AL/LA area...

[Dmetal81]

MW, how do you think this will affect evacuations, everyone is heading up the coast right now (I-95 still backed up at midnight)... they might be going the wrong direction.

[MWatkins]

CMC has changed its tune also, this could be very bad.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

Now runs it up the coast of Florida instead of across the peninsula.

Not really... at the 50s in hours it makes landfall in C FL. What I can't understand is it goes to the panhandle... moves West.. and then stalls in the MI/AL/LA area...

Aw come on....there's an easy answer for this crazyness.

It's the Canadian model.

MW

[LaBreeze]

What happened to the "so-called" west turn that so many were saying would take place? Don't think (and never did think) that it will happen. Just my thoughts.

[PurdueWx80]

Yes, but then the CMC takes it across the peninsula slowly towards Alabama, where it sits for over 60 HOURS!!! I hope to God that doesn't happen, becuase that spells flooding like Allison all over again. I think a move up the EC of FL is almost impossible given the shape of the coast...but then again, this does seem to be the season of extreme anomalies. That is probably the worst case scenario, as the storm would have much of its circulation over the Gulf Stream - which is boiling hot that far south.

[yoda]

CMC has changed its tune also, this could be very bad.

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/cmc ... =Animation

Now runs it up the coast of Florida instead of across the peninsula.

Not really... at the 50s in hours it makes landfall in C FL. What I can't understand is it goes to the panhandle... moves West.. and then stalls in the MI/AL/LA area...

Aw come on....there's an easy answer for this crazyness.

It's the Canadian model.

MW

The CMC is the Canadian? So are you saying that this model should be thrown out or what?

[MWatkins]

MW, how do you think this will affect evacuations, everyone is heading up the coast right now (I-95 still backed up at midnight)... they might be going the wrong direction.

Hopefully very little...I do not think the folks down here are heading north.

Of couse...this illustrates the inherent problem with trying to evacuate FL with a WNW moving storm that could skirt the coast.

MW