Frances Advisories

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wlfpack81
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#3201 Postby wlfpack81 » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:18 am

I can see that trough in the GOM kicking Frances a bit north but not far enough to make it a direct landfall into NC as a few are saying. It appears this ridging in the GOM is meeting that trough around the 90 deg W line based on satellite apperance and the 0Z 500mb analysis seems to support this:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_500.gif

I'm not ruling out a n-ward turn but not enough to take it into NC. I can see it going into se-ern Ga and maybe at an extreme s-ern SC but not NC ala Floyd etc.
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#3202 Postby Anonymous » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:18 am

It is a fluctuation IMO. I still think 140 mph at landfall.
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#3203 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:19 am

The thread was based on Charley's landfall location, not strength.
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#3204 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:20 am

wlfpack81 wrote:I can see that trough in the GOM kicking Frances a bit north but not far enough to make it a direct landfall into NC as a few are saying. It appears this ridging in the GOM is meeting that trough around the 90 deg W line based on satellite apperance and the 0Z 500mb analysis seems to support this:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/upper/upaCNTR_500.gif

I'm not ruling out a n-ward turn but not enough to take it into NC. I can see it going into se-ern Ga and maybe at an extreme s-ern SC but not NC ala Floyd etc.


Agreed. I called the GA/SC border a few days ago...
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#3205 Postby chris_fit » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:20 am

~Floydbuster wrote:It is a fluctuation IMO. I still think 140 mph at landfall.


I spoke to Jim Cantore about this and he even asked Dr. Lyons right in front of me.... they seemed pretty unsure saying " It coulddddd buttttt it's choking on dry air now, recon is reporting lighting which means dry air in the storm"

They said until it gets rid of the dry air it will be strengthening again.
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#3206 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:23 am

my bad about the Charley thread...

As for Frances, will she be able to get ride of the dry air and strengthen before landfall????


I wonder if the media should begin to play this down a bit, as they may have everyone thinking it'll be stronger than it really will be
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#3207 Postby chakalakasp » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:27 am

:fools:
Maybe this means it's headed for Charleston.
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#3208 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:29 am

I just wanted to add that I personally think it WILL be a Cat 4 at landfall with around 135 mph winds, ala Hugo.


But as of right now Frances is looking like an ugly lil girl....she's certainly blowing her chances to go down in the history books AS OF RIGHT NOW.

But as always, that could change...
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#3209 Postby ncbird » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:30 am

I myself have an issue with these remarks on posts... calling the poster wishcaster and other such things. Not only does it put down the poster, it makes other hesitant to post. The result is we could be missing some fine posts with new idea's out of a fear of being attacked or labeled.

I know there are some posts that are pretty far out there from reality, but instead of lashing out with names and put downs, we could give a reply as to why their thinking is not correct. We are not getting hot headed that way, don't make others hesitant to post, and all around are more contructive.

Just my thoughts
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#3210 Postby PanAmMIA » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:33 am

Someone with more knowledge can certainly correct me if I'm wrong but Frances, at it's present speed, will still get to spend a decent time over the Gulf Stream, which could lead to it's getting stronger, or at least maintaining Cat4 at landfall, no?
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Interesting map - shows landfall + locations

#3211 Postby Florida_brit » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:34 am

I have just found this excellent website showing where will get a direct hit. It shows path of hurricane (according to 5pm advisory 2/9/04) wind speed and the towns/cities in its path....

Please note usual disclaimer...subject to variation and should focus on the generally shape of the cone etc.

Image

For more info and the latest model: http://www.skeetobite.com
look at the front page under: Hurricane Frances Wind Field Graphics and select the latest map.
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#3212 Postby clearwater » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:36 am

Why is it you think the media should play down what you believe will be a CAT4 at landfall?
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#3213 Postby ncbird » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:43 am

I think its to early yet to count Francis out. There is still plenty of time for her to rev back up and agree with Mike that there is still the matter of her over the Gulf Stream for some time.
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#3214 Postby KeyLargoDave » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:45 am

I agree, we can all be nice about this and still have different points of view.

But I thought a person who wished a storm toward them was a "homer," while "wishcast" is a putdown for guessing rather forecasting based on facts.
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#3215 Postby hurricane_lover » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:45 am

ncbird, you guys stay prepared. This storm is still a big threat to you guys.
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#3216 Postby hurricane_lover » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:49 am

Like I have been saying...... Charelston/Myrtle Beach.
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2 AM FRANCES = 120 MPH

#3217 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:54 am

Hurricane Frances Intermediate Advisory Number 37a


Statement as of 2:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004



...Frances weakens slightly more ...still a dangerous category three
hurricane moving through the Bahamas...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
central and northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 2 am EDT...0600z...the eye of Hurricane Frances was located by
reconnaissance aircraft and radar near latitude 24.7 north...
longitude 75.7 west or near the northern end of Cat Island. This
is also about 310 miles...495 km...east-southeast of the Florida
lower East Coast.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph...14 km/hr
...And a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some decrease
in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On this
track...the core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move near or
over the central Bahamas this morning...and over the northwestern
Bahamas later today.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Frances is still a strong category three hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations in
intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 80 miles...130 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter
is 954 mb...28.17 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of Eleuthera island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.

Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 2 am EDT position...24.7 N... 75.7 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 5 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven
Last edited by yoda on Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#3218 Postby bahamaswx » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:55 am

230mph?
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#3219 Postby Derecho » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:55 am

At it's root, -removed- is deciding where you'd like the storm to go emotionally (and this, for internet weather board users, whether it's a snowstorm or hurricane, is usually towards their house) and then attempting to assemble or invent "facts" to support that claim, rather than rationally assessing the facts in an unbiased fashion and then making claims or assertions based on those facts.

It would be possible for someone to wishcast a storm AWAY from them, but that's much rarer.

Nothing cripples the usefulness and value of internet weather boards more than -removed-, actually. Any posters feeling "stifled" by -removed- accusations who no longer posted would improve the quality of the board.
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#3220 Postby yoda » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:55 am

WOAH CRAP!! SORRY... that is wrong... :eek: :lol:

its 120.
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