Totally confused now

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piedmontnc
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Totally confused now

#1 Postby piedmontnc » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:32 am

Been reading posts, and I am soooo confused now. Is she not moving or has she changed directions? Do you mean by moving the track right that it's out of Florida or just higher in Florida? What's the general feeling with the new data?
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Re: Totally confused now

#2 Postby MWatkins » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:37 am

piedmontnc wrote:Been reading posts, and I am soooo confused now. Is she not moving or has she changed directions? Do you mean by moving the track right that it's out of Florida or just higher in Florida? What's the general feeling with the new data?


This system could still cause a serious problem for Florida even if the main core of the winds do not come into SFL if it gets close to the coast.

She has not changed directions now...but the upper systems to the north of Frances are changing. Exect more changes in track...this is a very low-confidence forecast situation.

MW
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Re: Totally confused now

#3 Postby shortwave » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:40 am

MWatkins wrote:
piedmontnc wrote:
She has not changed directions now...but the upper systems to the north of Frances are changing. .

MW

whats changing about the systems to the north?
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#4 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:42 am

The overall track has not changed much except it goes further north before going inland. None of the models take this back into the Atlantic once it goes inland. all the models put it in the big bend area of Florida at different times. Then some bend it left ( NOGAPS,CMC), and some take it NNW (GFS,ETA). This is in response to the timing and streanth of the trough that is digging down. Stay tuned... This could all change at 06Z...
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#5 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:45 am

Is the ridge weakening? I thought they just said it was getting stronger.
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#6 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:51 am

southerngale wrote:Is the ridge weakening? I thought they just said it was getting stronger.

NOTE- The GFS did not change it's track in responce to the Data on Wednesday until the 06Z run On Thursday. The 06Z run of the GFS will be interesting. The high is not getting stronger, what they were saying was that the models have been under estimating the streangth of the high.
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#7 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 03, 2004 12:54 am

Ok, is it weakening though?
Why is Frances slowing so much?
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#8 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:00 am

southerngale wrote:Ok, is it weakening though?
Why is Frances slowing so much?

Honestly I have no idea and I don't think the NHC does either. None of the models stalled it here. For example the 00Z GFDL says it is supposed to be moving at 8 Knots now...
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#9 Postby southerngale » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:02 am

Ok, thanks. I guess she really does have a mind of her own. :eek: ;)
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#10 Postby hurricane_lover » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:02 am

Folks, it's slowing because it's making a northern turn. This is normal.
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#11 Postby mobilebay » Fri Sep 03, 2004 1:07 am

hurricane_lover wrote:Folks, it's slowing because it's making a northern turn. This is normal.

Even if your scenerio is true ( I highly doubt), The amplifiying Ridge in response to the trough will slam it west WAY before it could escape the Florida coast line. You can quote me on this... This Huricane will make landfall in the State of Florida...
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