South Florida can breathe a sigh of relief??

[Windfall]

I just don't get it?! If there is a strengthening high pressure above frances, why isn't it moving more west if not due west. In fact, this high pressure ridge was found worthy enough for hurricane hunters to investigate it tonight. As far as I know, current forecast models downplay the strenght of the high. The only sign that I have received of a rapidly intensifying high pressure is that Frances' forward speed has become nearly stationary. Once it starts moving, I suspect it will move more westerly. However, where it makes landfall depends on when the high can start moving it to the west. The question of the high pressure's ability to steer Frances off to the west is inevitable, or there wouldn't be hurricane warnings posted for the east coast of Florida. However, I have noticed that Frances has become stationary near latitude 24.5 (about the same latitude as Key Largo and the northern keys). The longer it stays at this latitude, the more of a threat it becomes to S. Florida, even miami. This storm was originally forecasted to move rapidly W to WNW under the strong Bermuda High until another high from the central U.S. would move it wnw to due west after a period of stationary movement. So the question left is...has frances reached the point where it will remain at almost the same latitude until being definitely influenced by a rigorous high pressure. When will this high pressure come into play? By forecast track, Frances is not expected to move much from where it is currently in the next 24 hours. This will probably leave enough time for the strengthening ridge to move Frances west and threaten areas from Miami to possibly as far north as Jupiter. I do not feel that anywhere north of this area will face direct impact. My gut feeling is a North Dade to South Palm Beach impact. This is certainly not set in stone. These are just some modest observations. God will have the last laugh. Goodnight to all...

[mobilebay]

I just don't get it?! If there is a strengthening high pressure above frances, why isn't it moving more west if not due west. In fact, this high pressure ridge was found worthy enough for hurricane hunters to investigate it tonight. As far as I know, current forecast models downplay the strenght of the high. The only sign that I have received of a rapidly intensifying high pressure is that Frances' forward speed has become nearly stationary. Once it starts moving, I suspect it will move more westerly. However, where it makes landfall depends on when the high can start moving it to the west. The question of the high pressure's ability to steer Frances off to the west is inevitable, or there wouldn't be hurricane warnings posted for the east coast of Florida. However, I have noticed that Frances has become stationary near latitude 24.5 (about the same latitude as Key Largo and the northern keys). The longer it stays at this latitude, the more of a threat it becomes to S. Florida, even miami. This storm was originally forecasted to move rapidly W to WNW under the strong Bermuda High until another high from the central U.S. would move it wnw to due west after a period of stationary movement. So the question left is...has frances reached the point where it will remain at almost the same latitude until being definitely influenced by a rigorous high pressure. When will this high pressure come into play? By forecast track, Frances is not expected to move much from where it is currently in the next 24 hours. This will probably leave enough time for the strengthening ridge to move Frances west and threaten areas from Miami to possibly as far north as Jupiter. I do not feel that anywhere north of this area will face direct impact. My gut feeling is a North Dade to South Palm Beach impact. This is certainly not set in stone. These are just some modest observations. God will have the last laugh. Goodnight to all...

Nobody said the high was strengthening. What the NHC was saying is that the models is Under estimating the strength of the ridge. The high does strengthen in about 72 hours because of the trough diigging down.

[hurricane_lover]

I tried telling you that this was not a S Florida event and never was. That's wh yI never even considered evacuating. I know these things too well. That through in GOM is the key and has been. Watch it.

[Windfall]

You said it was a Carolina event! Face the facts, Florida is just as vulnerable as the Carolinas, especially South Florida. I saw on the weather channel that Florida is the state with the most tropical storm/hurricane impacts. There is no invisible shield protecting Miami from hurricanes. One day you will realize this with a rude awakening.

[hurricane_lover]

And I still say it will be a Carolinas event.

[FritzPaul]

Well, it won't be long for this thread gets deleted.

[hurricane_lover]

:sigh: Yet another personal attack.

Grow up.

[deadcities]

No one's out of the woods yet.
I'd save the redicule until after it's made landfall somewhere.

[dennis1x1]

based on the current trend, an eyewall doesnt even exist, noone may have to worry about anything worse than a spring texas thunderstorm.

[FloridaDiver]

:sigh: Yet another personal attack.

The reason why people are attacking you is because you constantly jump into threads with this Carolina event cry of yours and the childish “I told you so…” statements, yet you don’t back it up with anything of substance. Opinions are like… well you know everyone has one (and the opinion), if you want people to back off a bit then expand on your theory. People will respect substantiated opinions, either right or wrong since this is an amateur meteorology board. So my suggestion is for you to do some major growing up, you mentioned you tracked storms for 15 years.. so tell us anything that would make that statement believable…

[Lowpressure]

If she stalls in or near the gulf stream, all bets are off for landfall. It would not be unheard of for her to go out to sea if she sits there long enough for the trough to dig in. Florida looks to be the target, but lets all face the fact that the events of the past 24 hours have left all of us a bit uncertain. In 4 days we might all be going wow, I did not expect Frances to do that, just like none of us saw this collpase coming.

[bree4bryce]

I may get bashed for saying this but I too believe it is not a s fla threat. I am not going to say carolina but I think n fla. So hurrican_lover you do have people on your side. I also don't have anything to back up my "feeling" except looking at predictions 24hrs ago and comparing them to now. Some people here can be quite mean and take things way too personally.
(hurricane_lover it's trough not through.)

[hurricane_lover]

trough indeed.

[GalvestonDuck]

Crap, I answered wrong -- the first question (topic title) and second question are opposites.

[Wacahootaman]

I think she could still hit Miami.

If the blocking high to the north strengthens and the finger of high pressure to the west weakens she could veer abruptly west and pick up strength.

The latest infrared sats are showing a big expansion to the west and sw of the core of the storm.

Plus look at this map of the steering currents and tell me if you dont think the high is strengthening to the North East and weakening to the west.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 2java.html