Frances Advisories

[yoda]

A VERY TINY one at best... lets see what happens to it over the next few hours...

[siobhan222]

I'm no expert but after looking at these things for the last few days, I think that does look like an eye.

[Eyes2theSkies]

Looks like an eye is forming. Also yellow ring forming around that eye area seems like it might be strengthening. She's having a hard time breathing all that dry air, but she's getting over humidity soon and I think she's gonna crank up again...

[NateFLA]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 97L.INVEST

8:02 is out and looks funky, but maybe some strengthening. These images are intresting at the least.

[siobhan222]

More strengthening? Oh no. I was wishful thinking that she was falling apart.

[NateFLA]

Don't take my word, I'm NO expert. I'm just looking at the maps and saying "Yellow... looks stronger... could be gaining some gusto, and it's starting to look eyeish"

I don't really know... I am posing it as more of a hypothetical for the experts around here.

[ncbird]

Sigh... guess I was too siobhan222. Was really hoping the dry air and shear would tear her apart and spare Florida.

[logybogy]

Is that pinhole eye moving directly due west?

[yoda]

Don't take my word, I'm NO expert. I'm just looking at the maps and saying "Yellow... looks stronger... could be gaining some gusto, and it's starting to look eyeish"

I don't really know... I am posing it as more of a hypothetical for the experts around here.

Hmm. I don't know either. If it is an eye forming, we will have to see in the coming hrs. if it can sustain itself. Pro mets won't be on for about another 2-3 hrs... so we will see what happens.

[NateFLA]

Yuck. Animate it javascript, large, with Most_Recent.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... 97L.INVEST,

If size is any indicator, its sure looks favorable for strenght to me. Also, more yellow. Whats all this mean?

[siobhan222]

Wow. That's a lot more yellow. Anyone know what that means?

[weatherlover427]

It says yellow means -80°C cloud tops. So that is colder (stronger) convection if I am correct...

[Tertius]

Wow. That's a lot more yellow. Anyone know what that means?

Well, on that radar it means stronger convection is building. Might be strengthening up some.

[siobhan222]

Thank you Joshua.

[siobhan222]

Tertius, what exactly do they mean when they say convection? I'm a dummy, sorry!

[ncbird]

Don't feel sorry siobhan and your not a dummy. Dummies are those who don't wanna take the time to learn. There are a bunch of great people here that are always willing to help educate us who don't know.

NCBird

[yoda]

Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 38


Statement as of 09:00Z on September 03, 2004



a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
central and northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

Hurricane center located near 24.9n 76.0w at 03/0900z
position accurate within 20 nm

present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 8 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 954 mb
Max sustained winds 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt.
64 kt....... 70ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt.......120ne 90se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt.......160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 24.9n 76.0w at 03/0900z
at 03/0600z center was located near 24.7n 75.7w

forecast valid 03/1800z 25.7n 77.1w
Max wind 110 kt...gusts 135 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 04/0600z 26.4n 78.3w
Max wind 115 kt...gusts 140 kt.
64 kt... 75ne 75se 40sw 75nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 100nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 04/1800z 27.1n 79.5w
Max wind 120 kt...gusts 145 kt.
64 kt... 70ne 60se 40sw 60nw.
50 kt...120ne 90se 70sw 90nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 100sw 140nw.

Forecast valid 05/0600z 27.6n 80.7w...inland
Max wind 105 kt...gusts 130 kt.
50 kt...120ne 90se 60sw 50nw.
34 kt...160ne 150se 80sw 80nw.

Forecast valid 06/0600z 29.0n 83.0w...over Gulf of Mexico
Max wind 45 kt...gusts 55 kt.
34 kt... 75ne 75se 75sw 75nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 07/0600z 32.0n 86.0w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.

Outlook valid 08/0600z 35.0n 86.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 24.9n 76.0w

next advisory at 03/1500z

forecaster Beven

[Tertius]

Tertius, what exactly do they mean when they say convection? I'm a dummy, sorry!

Nah, don't be sorry. It just means higher cloudtops, thus colder. Generally that mean harder rain underneath and is indicative of a storms energy. When convection builds, it means a stronger storm.

[yoda]

And the track stays the SAME!!!? Hmmm... looks like Mike loses $1000.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

[cape_escape]

And the track stays the SAME!!!? Hmmm...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Thank you Yoda. Any views on it?