Frances Advisories

[yoda]

And the track stays the SAME!!!? Hmmm...

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

Thank you Yoda. Any views on it?

Let me read the discussion first.

[yoda]

Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 38


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004


...Center of dangerous Frances approaching Eleuthera island in the
northwestern Bahamas...

a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
central and northwestern Bahamas.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch are in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

At 5 am EDT...0900z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 24.9 north...longitude 76.0 west or just east of
Eleuthera island. This position is also about 285 miles...460
km...east-southeast of the Florida lower East Coast.

Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
...15 km/hr...and a west-northwest to northwestward motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move
near or over the northwestern Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph...195 km/hr...with higher
gusts. While aircraft and radar data indicates that Frances has
become somewhat disorganized...it is still a strong category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 85 miles...140 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. Eleuthera has just reported sustained winds
of 81 mph.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb...28.17 inches.

Storm surge flooding of 6 to 14 feet above normal tide levels...
along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected
near the eye of Frances on the west side of Eleuthera island...and
on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge flooding of
4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on the west
side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm surge
flooding of 6 to 11 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida.

Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances.

Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.

Repeating the 5 am EDT position...24.9 N... 76.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 9 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...120 mph. Minimum central pressure... 954 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 8 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 11 am EDT.

Forecaster Beven

[mobilebay]

YODA. Mke is very nice please don't do that. I think they are just waiting for more model runs before changing, or they know the models have been wrong with the high to its north.

[Derek Ortt]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

[Tertius]

And the track stays the SAME!!!? Hmmm... looks like Mike loses $1000.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... _5day.html

It looks as if it is exactly on the forecast track. Doesn't quite look it since the heaviest convection if on the east side but the center looks dead on the track.

[yoda]

YODA. Mke is very nice please don't do that. I think they are just waiting for more model runs before changing, or they know the models have been wrong with the high to its north.

What do you mean? He said it in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 37e1e039b5

you can read it yourself...

[siobhan222]

Thanks Tertius. It's hard to grasp why cold cloud tops mean strengthening. The NHC seems to think it's becoming disorganized. is that good or bad?

[yoda]

If NHC says its becoming disorganized, that is good because it would signal weakening.

[NateFLA]

"While aircraft and radar data indicates that Frances has
become somewhat disorganized...it is still a strong category three
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. Some fluctuations
in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours. "

I think that is what he is referring too.
Lets hope the fluctuations on the sats show only temp changes.

[siobhan222]

I *really* hope it is weaking. That would be such a relief.

I'm watching TV right now and I'm not crazy about where they're still predicting landfall though. It's a bit too close to home!

[yoda]

I can't wait to read the discussion, and find out why the track DID NOT move north ANY. But its being delayed...

[Hyperstorm]

One thing has changed: The time it is forecast to move inland! We're looking at Sunday landfalling in Florida now...

[mobilebay]

YODA. Mke is very nice please don't do that. I think they are just waiting for more model runs before changing, or they know the models have been wrong with the high to its north.

What do you mean? He said it in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 37e1e039b5

you can read it yourself...

What I meant was, Dont rub it in. It looks like we will all be wrong 50 times before this thing moves inland. Note

[siobhan222]

I can't wait to read the discussion, and find out why the track DID NOT move north ANY. But its being delayed...

I was thinking the same thing. Where on earth is the discussion? I wonder if there's something new and that's why they're holding it up.

[yoda]

YODA. Mke is very nice please don't do that. I think they are just waiting for more model runs before changing, or they know the models have been wrong with the high to its north.

What do you mean? He said it in this thread:

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... 37e1e039b5

you can read it yourself...

What I meant was, Dont rub it in. It looks like we will all be wrong 50 times before this thing moves inland. Note

Oh sorry. He just seemed so sure of himself. I did not mean to rub it in, was just stating it.

[spaceisland]

The last few IR and water vapor frames seems to show reestablishment of outflow and a healthy burst of convection... I would expect that the 8am advisory, and certainly the 11 am, would bump Frances back up in wind with a lower pressure. I think you are right, Derek, to maintain cay 3 status.

[yoda]

Here it is...

Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 38


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004



Frances continues to slowly weaken. While it continues to generate
cold convective tops over the center...Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter and Bahama radar data show that the tops are coming from
eyewall fragments in the northeastern quadrant. The minimum
central pressure has risen to 954 mb...and the maximum flight-level
winds on the last mission were 98 kt. The initial intensity is
reduced to 105 kt based primarily on the central pressure and
satellite intensity estimates...as the aircraft winds...including
dropsondes...do not currently support this intensity.
The initial motion is 300/8. Frances is on the southwest side of a
complex ridge that has one anticyclone center east of Frances and
another to the north. Large-scale models forecast heights to rise
north of Frances through 72 hr as a short wave ridge moves through
the eastern United States. After 72 hr...heights rise over the
western Atlantic as a trough develops over the central United
States. This pattern evolution should steer Frances west-
northwestward to northwestward for 24-36 hr...followed by some turn
toward the left and slower motion from 36-48 hr...then faster
motion toward the northwest and then north. NHC track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario...with a tight clustering of
guidance through the first 48 hr and and some spread between a
northwestward motion and a northward turn thereafter. The official
forecast is similar to...but slower than the previous package in
deference to the GFS and GFDL...which slow Frances to 4 kt just
prior to landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The forecast slow
forward speed will prolong the adverse and hazardous conditions
associated with Frances.
The intensity forecast is very problematic. On one side...the
hurricane wind field has become very spread out as the central core
weakens...and it is often difficult for this type of spread out
system to re-consolidate. Also...shear analyses from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin now show 15-20 kt of westerly shear across
Frances. The SHIPS model forecast this shear to persist until just
before landfall. On the other hand...the storm has a good cyclonic
envelope and is still generating strong convection. The intensity
forecast will go with the scenario that Frances will gradually
re-consolidate before landfall and re-gain some strength. An
alternative scenario is that Frances does not re-intensify or
perhaps weakens more as indicated by the SHIPS and GFDL models.
This part of the forecast is low confidence.

The 64 and 50 kt wind radii were modified in the NW quadrant based
on aircraft data...which reported a 95 kt flight-level wind 90 nm
northwest of the center.

At this time...changes in the warnings and watches are not
necessary.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/0900z 24.9n 76.0w 105 kt
12hr VT 03/1800z 25.7n 77.1w 110 kt
24hr VT 04/0600z 26.4n 78.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 04/1800z 27.1n 79.5w 120 kt
48hr VT 05/0600z 27.6n 80.7w 105 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/0600z 29.0n 83.0w 45 kt...over Gulf of Mexico
96hr VT 07/0600z 32.0n 86.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/0600z 35.0n 86.5w 25 kt...inland

[spaceisland]

Any evidence that the SW shear would relax before landfall, allowing reintensification over warm water just offshore? .... a bad scenario for folks letting their guard down. (or will interaction with land limit the storm despite less shear?)

[yoda]

OK you people... explain what the he!! we are talking about cause I have NO clue what is going on here.


Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 38


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on September 03, 2004



Frances continues to slowly weaken. While it continues to generate
cold convective tops over the center...Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter and Bahama radar data show that the tops are coming from
eyewall fragments in the northeastern quadrant. The minimum
central pressure has risen to 954 mb...and the maximum flight-level
winds on the last mission were 98 kt. The initial intensity is
reduced to 105 kt based primarily on the central pressure and
satellite intensity estimates...as the aircraft winds...including
dropsondes...do not currently support this intensity.
The initial motion is 300/8. Frances is on the southwest side of a
complex ridge that has one anticyclone center east of Frances and
another to the north. Large-scale models forecast heights to rise
north of Frances through 72 hr as a short wave ridge moves through
the eastern United States. After 72 hr...heights rise over the
western Atlantic as a trough develops over the central United
States. This pattern evolution should steer Frances west-
northwestward to northwestward for 24-36 hr...followed by some turn
toward the left and slower motion from 36-48 hr...then faster
motion toward the northwest and then north. NHC track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario...with a tight clustering of
guidance through the first 48 hr and and some spread between a
northwestward motion and a northward turn thereafter. The official
forecast is similar to...but slower than the previous package in
deference to the GFS and GFDL...which slow Frances to 4 kt just
prior to landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The forecast slow
forward speed will prolong the adverse and hazardous conditions
associated with Frances.
The intensity forecast is very problematic. On one side...the
hurricane wind field has become very spread out as the central core
weakens...and it is often difficult for this type of spread out
system to re-consolidate. Also...shear analyses from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin now show 15-20 kt of westerly shear across
Frances. The SHIPS model forecast this shear to persist until just
before landfall. On the other hand...the storm has a good cyclonic
envelope and is still generating strong convection. The intensity
forecast will go with the scenario that Frances will gradually
re-consolidate before landfall and re-gain some strength. An
alternative scenario is that Frances does not re-intensify or
perhaps weakens more as indicated by the SHIPS and GFDL models.
This part of the forecast is low confidence.

The 64 and 50 kt wind radii were modified in the NW quadrant based
on aircraft data...which reported a 95 kt flight-level wind 90 nm
northwest of the center.

At this time...changes in the warnings and watches are not
necessary.

Forecaster Beven

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 03/0900z 24.9n 76.0w 105 kt
12hr VT 03/1800z 25.7n 77.1w 110 kt
24hr VT 04/0600z 26.4n 78.3w 115 kt
36hr VT 04/1800z 27.1n 79.5w 120 kt
48hr VT 05/0600z 27.6n 80.7w 105 kt...inland
72hr VT 06/0600z 29.0n 83.0w 45 kt...over Gulf of Mexico
96hr VT 07/0600z 32.0n 86.0w 30 kt...inland
120hr VT 08/0600z 35.0n 86.5w 25 kt...inland

[siobhan222]

I'm completely confused. It's weakening, but it might be strengthening? It might not strengthen before landfall but it might strengthen before landfall. The shear might affect it or it might not affect it. Like hello ... this is anyone's best guess if you ask me.