Frances Advisories

[ncbird]

lost on this one also

[NC George]

What an incredible waste of bandwidth. They are having problems keeping this site going, esp. around the time of new advisories. How about links to the advisories and discussions? We don't need a cut and paste of the text, that's what hyperlinks are for. We all know where to find them anyway: tropicalupdate.com or the NHC site.

[Derek Ortt]

outflow does seem as if it is starting to become better defined

[KBBOCA]

It would be wonderful for FL if she does weaken. I'd be happy for her to be remembered as the "big one that wasn't"

However, even if her winds decrease dramatically, I think she still could be devastating due to her huge size and the LARGE amounts of rainfall projected. One graphic I just saw is projecting 17-18 inches of rain for SE/Central FL. Just that kind of rainfall could make Frances a killer and a storm to be long long remembered.

What a great answer to prayer it will be if she does fall apart. More dry air sucked in please...!

[Aslkahuna]

The combination of shear and dry air has weakened the storm and is expected to continue to do so in the short term. The problem is that the shear is not supposed to relax until just before landfall consequently the intensity forecast is very uncertain at this time. Some aspects of the situation suggest continued weakening before landfall as far as the synoptic and dynamic patterns are concerned while others suggest that the storm could reintensify as it moves over the Gulf Stream and the shear relaxes. Right now, everything is dependent upon the storm being able to maintain its central core. In short, nobody knows what's going to happen and nobody will for the time being. Until then, go with some reintensification just in case. Remember the three P's of forecasting are Prognostication, Prevarication, and Procrastination.

Steve

[yoda]

What an incredible waste of bandwidth. They are having problems keeping this site going, esp. around the time of new advisories. How about links to the advisories and discussions? We don't need a cut and paste of the text, that's what hyperlinks are for. We all know where to find them anyway: tropicalupdate.com or the NHC site.

true. But people would rather save time and read it here then have to go to the sites and read it themselves. They can also respond to people's posts much faster if its done this way.

[mobilebay]

What he is saying is - he don't know if it will weaken or strengthen.

[yoda]

The combination of shear and dry air has weakened the storm and is expected to continue to do so in the short term. The problem is that the shear is not supposed to relax until just before landfall consequently the intensity forecast is very uncertain at this time. Some aspects of the situation suggest continued weakening before landfall as far as the synoptic and dynamic patterns are concerned while others suggest that the storm could reintensify as it moves over the Gulf Stream and the shear relaxes. Right now, everything is dependent upon the storm being able to maintain its central core. In short, nobody knows what's going to happen and nobody will for the time being. Until then, go with some reintensification just in case. Remember the three P's of forecasting are Prognostication, Prevarication, and Procrastination.

Steve

I understood that part Steve. It was the first paragraph I did not understand at all! The one w/ movement of Frances, not the second paragraph dealing with intensity.

[Hyperstorm]

There shouldn't be reason for being "lost" or "confused".

It clearly states that it is possible the system might re-strengthen just before landfall because of possible shear relaxation and the Gulf Stream just before landfall. This is indicated by the SHIPS and GFDL models. On the other hand, since it has become so disorganized and broad, it could stay as it is or weaken some.

There are two bandwagons here. This is a LOW-confidence intensity forecast...

[yoda]

ok sorry. I meant explain this part please. Thank you.

The initial motion is 300/8. Frances is on the southwest side of a
complex ridge that has one anticyclone center east of Frances and
another to the north. Large-scale models forecast heights to rise
north of Frances through 72 hr as a short wave ridge moves through
the eastern United States. After 72 hr...heights rise over the
western Atlantic as a trough develops over the central United
States. This pattern evolution should steer Frances west-
northwestward to northwestward for 24-36 hr...followed by some turn
toward the left and slower motion from 36-48 hr...then faster
motion toward the northwest and then north. NHC track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario...with a tight clustering of
guidance through the first 48 hr and and some spread between a
northwestward motion and a northward turn thereafter. The official
forecast is similar to...but slower than the previous package in
deference to the GFS and GFDL...which slow Frances to 4 kt just
prior to landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The forecast slow
forward speed will prolong the adverse and hazardous conditions
associated with Frances.

[Hyperstorm]

ok sorry. I meant explain this part please. Thank you.

The initial motion is 300/8. Frances is on the southwest side of a
complex ridge that has one anticyclone center east of Frances and
another to the north. Large-scale models forecast heights to rise
north of Frances through 72 hr as a short wave ridge moves through
the eastern United States. After 72 hr...heights rise over the
western Atlantic as a trough develops over the central United
States. This pattern evolution should steer Frances west-
northwestward to northwestward for 24-36 hr...followed by some turn
toward the left and slower motion from 36-48 hr...then faster
motion toward the northwest and then north. NHC track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario...with a tight clustering of
guidance through the first 48 hr and and some spread between a
northwestward motion and a northward turn thereafter. The official
forecast is similar to...but slower than the previous package in
deference to the GFS and GFDL...which slow Frances to 4 kt just
prior to landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The forecast slow
forward speed will prolong the adverse and hazardous conditions
associated with Frances.

They are going with the GFS and GFDL models on this one in terms of the forward motion...only 4kts! Expect a continued WNW-NW motion for 24-36 more hours. Then a bend toward the left should occur after 36 hours due to a slight strengthening of the ridge to the Northeast. After 48 hours, it is expected to move more NW due to a "sandwich" play here where we will have a trough in the Central USA and a ridge in the Western Atlantic. By that time, it should be moving inland in Florida...

[yoda]

ok sorry. I meant explain this part please. Thank you.

The initial motion is 300/8. Frances is on the southwest side of a
complex ridge that has one anticyclone center east of Frances and
another to the north. Large-scale models forecast heights to rise
north of Frances through 72 hr as a short wave ridge moves through
the eastern United States. After 72 hr...heights rise over the
western Atlantic as a trough develops over the central United
States. This pattern evolution should steer Frances west-
northwestward to northwestward for 24-36 hr...followed by some turn
toward the left and slower motion from 36-48 hr...then faster
motion toward the northwest and then north. NHC track guidance
generally agrees with this scenario...with a tight clustering of
guidance through the first 48 hr and and some spread between a
northwestward motion and a northward turn thereafter. The official
forecast is similar to...but slower than the previous package in
deference to the GFS and GFDL...which slow Frances to 4 kt just
prior to landfall on the Florida Peninsula. The forecast slow
forward speed will prolong the adverse and hazardous conditions
associated with Frances.

They are going with the GFS and GFDL models on this one. It's fairly simple...WNW-NW for 24-36 hours, then W-WNW after 36 hours due to a slight strengthening of the ridge to the Northeast. After 48 hours, it is expected to move more NW due to a "sandwich" play here where we will have a trough in the Central USA and a ridge in the Western Atlantic.

Great. Thanks Hyperstorm... now again the question for landfall is in the air, and now I fear that wobbles will be posted more and more today.

[Hyperstorm]

No problem...anytime.

[ncbird]

There shouldn't be reason for being "lost" or "confused".


Well maybe you know a little more and understand a little better. Please be kind and understanding to those of us who don't. Please don't degrade us because we are seeking knowledge on the subject. Last I knew this board was for all who share interest in weather... pro's and amatures alike.

NCBird

[Robin1122]

Just curious with Francis just sort of "sitting out there". Are those of us in the Jacksonville, FL/St. Marys, GA still pretty safe? Even if the hurricane does come accross land in south FL, should we be expecting any adverse weather later on this weekend? Also, I am confused as I read the posts...is the projected path starting to move more north and east or is that just my imagination? Thanks from one who does not know very much about hurricanes but have two little ones and live on the intercoastal waterway on the GA/FL border.

[yoda]

:?:

Just curious with Francis just sort of "sitting out there". Are those of us in the Jacksonville, FL/St. Marys, GA still pretty safe? Even if the hurricane does come accross land in south FL, should we be expecting any adverse weather later on this weekend? Also, I am confused as I read the posts...is the projected path starting to move more north and east or is that just my imagination? Thanks from one who does not know very much about hurricanes but have two little ones and live on the intercoastal waterway on the GA/FL border.

You should be watching Frances very carefully over the next couple of days.

[yoda]

Its coming out now... lets see where it goes... if it follows the ETA or goes off on its own.

[Hyperstorm]

There shouldn't be reason for being "lost" or "confused".


Well maybe you know a little more and understand a little better. Please be kind and understanding to those of us who don't. Please don't degrade us because we are seeking knowledge on the subject. Last I knew this board was for all who share interest in weather... pro's and amatures alike.

NCBird

I'm sorry if I offended someone. It was NOT my intent. I just thought the discussion was self-explanatory, but I was wrong...

[ncbird]

ache... sounds like a Floyd.

And no I don't mean path, I mean rain and flooding.

[yoda]

through 30 hrs....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030l.gif