Frances Advisories

[Derek Ortt]

latest loops do show some expansion of the outflow, though there still appears to be slight shear form the west

[ncbird]

Thanks for keeping us updated Derek.

NCBird

[Anonymous]

Derek, I dislike the way you make he system whatever intensity you think.Make your forecast whatever you want, but make the current intensity what it is. In the case of Hurricane Frances, this is one you do not want to mess with.

[yoda]

hanging right off the coast...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054l.gif

LANDFALL
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_060l.gif


Basically Frances goes up the middle of FL on this run and then heads N and NE... I think. I am tired and have been up all night. Time for some sleep. Anyone who wishes to continue posting here may. See you guys at 11ish.

[Lowpressure]

Didn't the exact same thing happen to the strength in Isabel last year? Ripped through the Atlantic as a cat 5 ran out of gas (so to say) and hit NC around 105-110 mph. The core collapsed well before landfall and the wind radii spreads out dramatically. Maybe this is a repeat. Only Isabel did not really mess around, she knew where she was going.

[jlauderdal]

Derek, I dislike the way you make he system whatever intensity you think.Make your forecast whatever you want, but make the current intensity what it is. In the case of Hurricane Frances, this is one you do not want to mess with.

NHC does this also. In fact look at todays 5 am disco from NHC,

The minimum
central pressure has risen to 954 mb...and the maximum flight-level
winds on the last mission were 98 kt. The initial intensity is
reduced to 105 kt based primarily on the central pressure and
satellite intensity estimates...as the aircraft winds...including
dropsondes...do not currently support this intensity.


You might not agree with it floydbuster but it is common in hurricane analysis and forecasting.

Cheers

[GalvestonDuck]

Awesome map! Great detail.

Thanks for posting this.

[JMGNole]

[rainstorm]

its headed to me. i knew it

[quickychick]

JMGNole, check the backward slashes in your image link. FireFox chokes on them

p.s. thanks

[otowntiger]

In the 5:00 discussion the TPC says the intensity of Frances is problematic. I should say so! They have the hardest time figuring that out on these storms. So far they've blown it on Frances, saying she will be stronger than she may end up. In fact it seems that she is much weaker now than they are even telling us! They say she has 120 sustained winds on the Public advisory, but in the discussion they even doubt she's close to that! Charley was the opposite. They thought he wouldn't be any stronger than a cat 2 before landfall and look what happened. We here in Orlando got 105 mph winds nearly 120 miles inland! Now Frances could be much worse based on her overall size, speed and direction from which she is approaching us (much less land to traverse) but I'm beginining to think other than a tremendous amount of rain (due to the slow motion) we won't see much in the way of wind, at least not here in Orlando. They really need to get a handle at some point on these intensity forecasts. They don't have any real explanations for her current state of prolonged deteriation. And they are making a wild guess that she will strengthen before landfall, contradictory to the models. If they don't watch it this could be another case of crying wolf, if she makes landfall as a cat 1 all the while calling it something else.

[Anonymous]

You have to remember, Frances is still expected to be a 140 mph category 4 hurricane at landfall. In fact, it appears to be re-organizing...

[Nimbus]

She will be traveling slowly over the warm gulf stream just before landfall so we should not let our guard down yet.

[Thunder44]

Basically they are admitting that they don't know what is going to happen next with this storm as far as intensity goes. They have stated in the past that their intensity forecasts for hurricanes, are not very good.

[Anonymous]

I think you are jumping the gun on this personally, as Frances STILL has an incredibly well organized outflow and envelope in general. When it gets over the gulf stream its forecasted to strengthen again (due to low shear), so don't assume just yet. Although I really hope it stays weak.

[Dave C]

The TPC actully didn't mention the gulf stream in their discussion but this storm definately has it's work cut out to strengthen again before landfall. Dry air and 15-20 knts. west.shear vs good to ex. outflow and warm waters.

[otowntiger]

Basically they are admitting that they don't know what is going to happen next with this storm as far as intensity goes. They have stated in the past that their intensity forecasts for hurricanes, are not very good.

I know. They admit it all the time, that's why I say they need to try to get a better handle on it. They may even need to be more honest with the actual winds. We all know the storm was at one time a monster, it appears less that way now. Not that she couldn't reintensify, but if she doesn't, they need to call it for what it is.

[CFL]

I'm feeling a whole lot safer and happier up here in the panhandle! Now let's hope the weakening trend continues for our friends in South Florida.

[Dave C]

Respectively disagree about current trend. TPC 5am disc. shows a storm that continues to weaken with west shear(15-20knts) and dry air entrainment. The slow movement may give it time to reorganize and intensify before landfall so agree cat 4 strength is possible. The outflow is improving and gulf-steam may overcome negative factors.

[Tip]

This is one that will need to be analyzed after the event. A remarkable collapse of a borderline CAT 5 at one time to a 105mph storm with no discernible eye. Water temps were fine, no heavy duty shear, no dry air entrainment, no mountains. Whatever happened I will be interested to fin out.