Frances Advisories

[jlauderdal]

iF YOU LIVE ON THE sE COAST YOU CAN LISTEN TO BAHAMAS RADIO ON 810 AM. ITS ALL HURRICANE COVERAGE AND PEOPL ARE CALLING IN FROM ALL OVER THE CHAIN. THE HOST KEEPS TELLING EVERYONE STAY INSIDE AND PRAY.

[Hyperstorm]

I disagree about the dry air being a factor for the weakening. This system has been ingesting dry air since it came off the African coast and has been able to strengthen gradually. Humidity values are expected to rise as it approaches the Florida coast, so no weakening because of that.

The main reason for the weakening was an outflow restriction initially and some westerly shear since last evening. This shear is expected to abate somewhat just before it's expected to reach the shore, so if it can maintain a well-defined inner core...this could rapidly strengthen the 12 hours before landfall.

There are signs that the inner core has collapsed somewhat so it could take time for it to strengthen...

[Terry]

This messasge comes from Sinclair, owner of the Abaco Message Board who also rode out Floyd.

" Treasure Cay 7 AM

Power, water off, telco operational, setting up in TC Admin bldng with generator, even AC. Intermittent heavy rain, blowing rain in between. Leaves beginning to come off, no significant breakage. NE-E wind at least 40.

More after a little work at house and a tour.

Sinc "

[caneman]

I disagree about the dry air being a factor for the weakening. This system has been ingesting dry air since it came off the African coast and has been able to strengthen gradually. Humidity values are expected to rise as it approaches the Florida coast, so no weakening because of that.

The main reason for the weakening was an outflow restriction initially and some westerly shear since last evening. This shear is expected to abate somewhat just before it's expected to reach the shore, so if it can maintain a well-defined inner core...this could rapidly strengthen the 12 hours before landfall.

There are signs that the inner core has collapsed somewhat so it could take time for it to strengthen...

Dry air indeed played a role. Steve Lyons showed it yesterday and stated it could play a role in some weakening. He was right. Even showed it on his map.

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 031054
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/1054Z
B. 25 DEG 13 MIN N
76 DEG 18 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2718 M
D. 30 KT
E. 140 DEG 116 NM
F. 223 DEG 89 KT
G. 144 DEG 043 NM
H. 957 MB
I. 9 C/ 3049 M
J. 18 C/ 3075 M
K. 12 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF861 2106A FRANCES OB 07
MAX FL WIND 89 KT SE QUAD 1042Z.

Pressure still going up. And also winds aren't very strong but this is just their pass, so we have wait to see if they can find any stronger winds in the NW Quad.

[Trader Ron]

If Frances doesn't pass over the Gulf Stream, she is a great Broad Jumper.

No pun intended.

[AussieMark]

only 89kts

thats 105 mph.

Category 2

[das8929]

Wow and thats flight level wind. Geez what is happening to this storm? Is it pulling a Lili?

[Hyperstorm]

This is one that will need to be analyzed after the event. A remarkable collapse of a borderline CAT 5 at one time to a 105mph storm with no discernible eye. Water temps were fine, no heavy duty shear, no dry air entrainment, no mountains. Whatever happened I will be interested to fin out.

No heavy duty shear, that's right, but a hurricane of this strength needs perfect outflow. Hurricanes and especially strong hurricanes need to ventilate themselves in order to maintain their strength. If there's an outflow restriction, the air cannot be evacuated as effectively...thus weakening takes place. Any kind of shear will cause the pressure to rise as it has...

Actually it got sheared, which is why it weakened.

That may be, but they had no idea that was going to happen, and as it was happening they didn't seem to know what was going on, maybe still don't. Just now they mentioned shear in the forecast, but they didn't offer that as an explanationg to what has happened so far.

Actually, believe it or not, this was forecast by the SHIPS and GFDL long before it has come to fruition. They even mentioned in some of their discussions that shear was possible late in the period as it approached the Florida peninsula. They just decided to ignore the models forecast because it appeared to be "unrealistic"...

[Lowpressure]

Wait to see what is in the NE and NW quad.

[AussieMark]

seems to be getting killed off by shear

[AussieMark]

but Dry air would be the main problem.

As dry air rips even the strongest storms apart

[Cyclone Runner]

Don't be so quick to write off Frances. Eleuthera North Harbour reporting sustained 120 mph with higher gusts in the eye wall. So any weakening may well have levelled off.

[Derek Ortt]

I do take things into consideration when setting the intensity, not what the over zealous intensity people thinks

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I do take things into consideration when setting the intensity, not what the over zealous intensity people thinks

Derek..thanks for the reply to my post!

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I do take things into consideration when setting the intensity, not what the over zealous intensity people thinks

Derek..thanks for the reply to my post!

[Thunder44]

The 8am advisory shows says that eye is right over Eleuthra in Bahamas. So interaction with land might be causing some slight weakening now.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... ublic.html

[AussieMark]

ooh.

Thought she was going through like a rapid decay type of phase

[tampastorm]

as once was, the visible loop of the outer bands looks somewhat better. Does anyone else notice this?

[Lutrastorm]

Eleuthera's highest elevations are only about 115 feet. Would that really have much effect on Francis, as opposed to an island like Hispanola?