A leftward hook...

Windfall · #1 Postby **Windfall** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:18 am

I know you guys don't like wobble watching, but from the latest animated satellite frances appears to have made a leftward shift. If this confirms, Florida is right on track for landfall and the Carolinas can just forget about it. Again, notice the NHC's forecasted cone of error. It suggests a sharp left turn because the southernmost extent of the cone is almost due left, which still encompasses Dade county. All I am trying to say is that the chances of a Florida event increase with each significant wobble left.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html (use the zoom option)

http://www.weather.com/maps/news/atlsto ... mated.html

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... odnav=none

#2 Postby **tracyswfla** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:24 am

Wow, I did see that...hmmm perhaps that is why she is slowing down? Who knows.. Thanks

CourierPR · #3 Postby **CourierPR** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:32 am

I'm glad I'm not the only one to see this, lest I be accused of -removed-. There does appear to be a more western component to what little movement there is. One local met, John Gerard, just said that the NHC expects a slowing of forward speed to four or five miles per hour.

BonesXL · #4 Postby **BonesXL** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:37 am

OK...I must be going crazy but it looks like its begin to go more west.

ColinD · #5 Postby **ColinD** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:37 am

I don't see it.

#6 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:38 am

BonesXL wrote:OK...I must be going crazy but it looks like its begin to go more west.

lol...i love this board!

Guest · #7 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:44 am

She is drifting..The slower she goes the more south the leftward track will occur because the timing will be off.

#8 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:32 am

MIA_canetrakker wrote:She is drifting..The slower she goes the more south the leftward track will occur because the timing will be off.

Is this true? I thought now that she is moving slower it was better for us? Now I am really confused..or maybe just tired.. or both! :lol:

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:34 am

Deenac813 wrote:
MIA_canetrakker wrote:She is drifting..The slower she goes the more south the leftward track will occur because the timing will be off.

Is this true? I thought now that she is moving slower it was better for us? Now I am really confused..or maybe just tired.. or both!

How could it? The slower motion means the longer over water, the later it will hit, and the MORE RAIN you will get. There will be 20" of rain in some spots and maybe more.

#10 Postby **seahawkjd** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:35 am

A drift just means it has more chance to do uncertain things, strenghen, weaken, move north, move west, make peak minute calls on my cell phone.....

#11 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:36 am

It's very hard to track on satellite right now.

There's consensus that shear is an issue in the SW quadrant, and as Mike indicated earlier,
that may be starting to relax. If so, the storm
will regain its composure quickly.

Despite shear, the convection continues to erupt
new stuff in each new image.

#12 Postby **DelrayMorris** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:45 am

Deenac813 wrote:
MIA_canetrakker wrote:She is drifting..The slower she goes the more south the leftward track will occur because the timing will be off.

Is this true? I thought now that she is moving slower it was better for us? Now I am really confused..or maybe just tired.. or both!

hehe I'm with you. I don't know what is good for me or bad for me anymore at this point! Every jog to the north, I celebrate. Every jog to the west scares me. And slowing down just makes me insane. Everything is done, I'm living in a dark cave and at this point I just want it to be over with, one way or another. With nothing left to do to prepare, I find myself at loose ends, checking and rechecking everything until I pass out for a couple of hours.

So I would say.. both. At least I am. I'm both confused and tired. The only thought I still hold to is that I'm still under a hurricane warning and should be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best.

#13 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:50 am

[quote]

hehe I'm with you. I don't know what is good for me or bad for me anymore at this point! Every jog to the north, I celebrate. Every jog to the west scares me. And slowing down just makes me insane. Everything is done, I'm living in a dark cave and at this point I just want it to be over with, one way or another. With nothing left to do to prepare, I find myself at loose ends, checking and rechecking everything until I pass out for a couple of hours.

So I would say.. both. At least I am. I'm both confused and tired. The only thought I still hold to is that I'm still under a hurricane warning and should be prepared for the worst, but hope for the best.[quote]

You nailed my feeling exactly. The new advisory says NW motion now. I am just going to throw my hands up and turn the computer off! :roll:

JQ Public · #14 Postby **JQ Public** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:52 am

Its not a westward movement...its an explosion of clouds around the center of the storm. The western side was pretty much void of cold cloud tops earlier this morning, but now it has some so it looks like she just jumped west.

#15 Postby **DelrayMorris** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:54 am

Yeah, I've had to step away from the computer several times in the last couple of days, lest I find myself staring at a satellite picture for 2 hours at a time, wondering if the northward jog means anything..

I think I'll go eat now.. that's constructive anyway :lol:

Nimbus · #16 Postby **Nimbus** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 10:55 am

Thanks for the explanation JQ hope you are correct. Frances suckered me in this time though, I will be watching this wobble.

A leftward hook...

A leftward hook...

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