Frances Advisories

[Anonymous]

Note on next model runs...

1. Pressure is slowly rising
2. Winds speeds will drop to 100-110
3. Eye and eye wall gone
4. Organization is falling apart
5. Dry slot will continue her weakening

Bottom line...Better news for Florida...much less wind and less damage...biggest threat will be flooding...Frances will only be a Cat 1 or 2 at landfall.

[cycloneye]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE FRANCES (AL062004) ON 20040903 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040903 1200 040904 0000 040904 1200 040905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 25.3N 76.3W 26.2N 77.1W 26.8N 77.9W 27.4N 78.8W
BAMM 25.3N 76.3W 26.1N 77.6W 26.6N 78.9W 26.8N 79.9W
A98E 25.3N 76.3W 26.2N 77.5W 26.8N 78.3W 27.3N 79.0W
LBAR 25.3N 76.3W 26.3N 77.6W 27.2N 78.9W 28.0N 80.1W
SHIP 105KTS 98KTS 98KTS 98KTS
DSHP 105KTS 98KTS 98KTS 98KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040905 1200 040906 1200 040907 1200 040908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 28.4N 79.5W 31.1N 82.7W 34.4N 85.2W 37.8N 83.6W
BAMM 27.2N 80.9W 29.4N 83.1W 32.5N 84.7W 35.8N 82.9W
A98E 27.3N 80.5W 22.5N 86.6W 19.8N 89.5W 19.5N 92.8W
LBAR 28.7N 81.4W 30.9N 83.0W 34.6N 82.7W 38.6N 79.4W
SHIP 100KTS 104KTS 100KTS 82KTS
DSHP 53KTS 36KTS 27KTS 27KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.3N LONCUR = 76.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 24.2N LONM12 = 74.9W DIRM12 = 305DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 23.2N LONM24 = 73.5W
WNDCUR = 105KT RMAXWD = 35NM WNDM12 = 115KT
CENPRS = 957MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 160NM RD34SE = 150NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 140NM

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

do you have a link to help me decipher this?? thanks!

[tailgater]

I also saw when Dr. Steve Lyons was talking about dry air getting into this system, it was on the north and nortwest side of the outflow boundry. Isn't there usally dry air (sinking air) on the edge of the outflow. Checkout AFM reasoning from last night.

[cycloneye]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

[LaBreeze]

I sort of figured this would be the case.

[canegrl04]

Frances fizzles while Ivan the Terrible waits in the wings

[Hyperstorm]

I also saw when Dr. Steve Lyons was talking about dry air getting into this system, it was on the north and nortwest side of the outflow boundry. Isn't there usally dry air (sinking air) on the edge of the outflow. Checkout AFM reasoning from last night.

It's mainly westerly shear. I can tell you that if the hurricane had perfect outflow right now, it would be a dangerous category 4 hurricane. If there's any dry air, it isn't causing much, if any, weakening.

I just love using facts to support ideas:

ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 33
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2004

RECON THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING INDCIATED THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAD
DECREASED TO 939 MB. A DROPSONDE AT 01/1904Z INDICATED WINDS OF 154
KT...OR 177 MPH...AT THE 850 MB LEVEL. THE HIGHEST 700 MB RECON
FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND AT 2210Z WAS 134 KT...EQUAL TO ABOUT A 121-KT
SURFACE WIND. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...FRANCES IS BEING HELD AT
120 KT...WHICH MAY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/12. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERBALE
WOBBLE IN THE TRACK THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLES THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING. FRANCES HAS BEEN MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN INTACT
THROUGH AT LEAST 48 HOURS. THE GULFSTREAM-IV JET AND AN AFRES C-130
HAVE BEEN RELEASING DROPSONDES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF FRANCES. THE
SONDE DATA HAS PRODUCED SOME INTERESTING AND DISTURBING RESULTS.
THE HEIGHT DATA FOR THE VARIOUS PRESSURE LEVELS...COMPARED TO 18Z
SURROUNDING UPPER-AIR DATA...APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW. HOWEVER...THE WIND DATA CLEARLY INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 30N 75W...OR ABOUT 500 NMI NORTHWEST OF
FRANCES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTH
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO. IN THE SHORT TERM...
THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT FRANCES SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING AT 295 OR
EVEN 290 DEGREES MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALSO...00Z
UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT THE 18Z NOGAPS AND 12Z UKMET MODELS
HAVE VERIFIED THE 00Z 500 MB RIDGE AND HEIGHTS THE BEST...WHILE THE
18Z GFS AND GFDL MODELS WERE MUCH TOO WEAK...AT LEAST 20 METERS TOO
LOW...WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE. SINCE THE 00Z MODEL RUNS WILL
HAVE THE NEW GPS DROPSONDE DATA INCLUDED IN THOSE RUNS FOR THE 06Z
ADVISORY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IS BEING MADE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED TO THE
NORTHWEST OF FRANCES...I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO THE 00Z MODEL
TRACKS SHIFT A LITTLE MORE WESTWARD.

FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER NEAR AND WITHIN THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS CHAIN IN 24-48 HOURS. GIVEN THE ALREADY IMPRESSIVE
OUTFLOW PATTERN...SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS PLAUSIBLE.
ALSO...THE VERY DRY MID-LEVEL AIR...30-40 PERCENT HUMIDITY...THAT
FRANCES HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THROUGH AND INGESTING OVER THE PAST 5
DAYS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO MORE THAN 60 PERCENT IN 36-60HR...
WHICH MAY ALSO HELP WITH THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Hurrilurker]

Hurrilurker: Check this thread for the latest:

Thanks!

[Stormcenter]

http://net-waves.com/weather/modelplot.htm

The A98E track looks very reasonable to me.

[lurkerinthemidst]

I appreciate Dereks Ortt forecast. He has been right on the money so far.

Yes, I didn't understand the category difference with wind differences either when ANYONE was giving them but just like he stated it seems to be a across the board way to track/forecast hurricanes that I have seen so far.

I think you are doing a GREAT job Derek!

[Dean4Storms]

GOM Residents should stay up to date on Frances. The current forecasts have been initializing a Cat. 4 storm which is not so easily steered by a ridge as a weakening Cat. 3. I would not be suprised if at her weakened state if she doesn't get turned westward by the ridge to her north and over into the GOM alot earlier and further south than the current NHC track suggests. Alot will depend on how strong the ridge remains and Frances condition today.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

TWC just said will prob. be a more n fla landfall??

[Dean4Storms]

TWC just said will prob. be a more n fla landfall??

TWC will only go by what model trends are indicating, see my post above. They would not be on top of this that closely.

[Terry]

7:58 a.m. From Steve Rutledge, part of the HAM network set up during Floyd and again for Frances:

**************
Talked to Bob Ball, C6ALD, Little Harbour. He is reporting barometer of 29.38 and falling, seas 6-8 feet, tides one foot above normal. He reports gusts (estimated) of 100 mph. No damage at this time.

Another amateur radio operator, KF4TRG/C6A, somewhere in the Abacos, reported at 0830, winds 69 degrees at 37 mph gusting to 50. Barometer 999.0 and falling. She reported measured winds at Tilloo Cay at 0810L of 77 mph, measured winds at Guana Cay, Fisher's Bay, at 0830L of 74 mph.

[lookout]

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html

Im glad to see you have backed away from that unrealistic track yesterday, however i still believe you are still too far west. taking a look at the upper level flow in about 48 hours, i just dont see it moving that far out in the gulf. instead, i believe a consensus of the tropical model suite is a pretty good picture of my thinking currently. or if you want, very similiar to the the 12z gfdl taking frances inland somewhere between melbourne and daytona then moving her solidly northwest after that with a gradual turn to the north and possibly just east of north at the end of the period. this imo is a major flooding event for the interior southeast, including Ga, eastern Tn, western carolinas, and possibly extreme eastern alabama. Frances in my view will never make it back into the gulf and i fairly confidant about that.

[Stormcenter]

GOM Residents should stay up to date on Frances. The current forecasts have been initializing a Cat. 4 storm which is not so easily steered by a ridge as a weakening Cat. 3. I would not be suprised if at her weakened state if she doesn't get turned westward by the ridge to her north and over into the GOM alot earlier and further south than the current NHC track suggests. Alot will depend on how strong the ridge remains and Frances condition today.

As slow as Frances is moving right now we could be talking about her this
time next week so I guess anything is possible.

[vbhoutex]

Thanks for the updates. Keep us posted as you learn more.

[Windfall]

Here are some important considerations...

Is Frances moving a little slower than anticipated? I heard that a local meteorologist said that in the next advisory Frances's moving speed might be reduced to 3 or 4 mph. If so, Frances may move even slower making the NHC's projected track subject to change.

What I noticed though is that in the NHC's projected model, as soon as about Saturday morning, after making landfall, Frances was forecasted to make a shift more towards the west as a result of a high pressure being strengthened by the trough moving from the Central U.S. That trough has amost made it to Louisianna now.

If Frances stalls out until Saturday moring, in or around its current position, this may allow ample time for the High pressure ridge over the Southeast to strengthen and move Frances farther south than anticipated.

Another scenario is that the trough may dig so deep and move fast enough that by Saturday it could steer Frances away from Florida. My main point is that as Frances slows down more, uncertainty increases. South Florida could still be under the gun if Frances does not move north of its latitude by the time the high pressure ridge steers it west.

Any comments are welcome.

[The Big Dog]

As slow as Frances is moving right now we could be talking about her this
time next week so I guess anything is possible.

Oh, please don't say that. I can't take much more.