Frances Advisories

[Terry]

Permament new Abaco Message Board set up at:
http://coconuttelegraph.net/forums/forumdisplay.php?f=2

The temp board on 2coolfishing was discontinued.

[Derek Ortt]

I actually want the season to end early this year. there has been enough suffering

[Hyperstorm]

When you say TWC, are you referring to Steve Lyons? If not, then most likely he told the OCMs to say that as he does briefings on the tropics with the OCMs.

I don't expect this to be a north Florida landfall at this point with such a strong ridge in place...

[lookout]

I should have just gone with what I had expected in previous forecasts...better be on the safe side. Frances is definitely down to a Category 2 hurricane by now, although, we all know NHC will be reluctant to downgrade, understandably so no one will let their guard down too early. This shear is monsterous right now, and is really starting to rip apart the system. The pressure is starting to increase as expected, and it won't be long before all this gets to the inner core--which is really fighting off the shear well for now. But another 24 hours of this shear, and the core may begin to collapse. It's not impossible that we'll have a tropical storm tomorrow--although I do have my majority doubts with this. For now, expect pressures to increase roughly into the 970s today.

its not the shear that is hurting frances, its a lot of dry air being wrapped around her western flank from the north and west. that is clearly visible on water vapor imagery. the shear is "monsterous right now" is laughable. as well as the idea it will become a tropical storm. more than likely she will level off in the 960 to 965mb range today but she will NOT strengthen unless that dry air lessons. which, looking at the water vapor, there is plenty of it across florida so i wouldnt expect any strengthening or very little today or tonight. i still belive she will be a strong cat 3 or low cat 4 on landfall but the strengthening wont happen until tomorrow. if that dry air does not let up, she will remain in the 110 to 120 range.

[dennis1x1]

its kind of amazing that we cant detect a forecast shear so strong that it rips apart a cat4 hurricane in the matter of hours even a day in advance....

[Cyclone Runner]

Thanks! Found it!!

[Anonymous]

Certainly better to be safe than sorry, IMO.

Just find it amazing how many storms are forecast incorrectly...all storms...tropical, winter, etc.

Just shows what an inaccurate science weather really is.

[dennis1x1]

probably borderline cat 2......maybe cat 1....or at least very soon.

with the continued forecast shear up till nearly landfall and weakening we may be dealing with a tropical storm at landfall (of course the official advisories will have her 10-15 mph stronger than reality from here on out).

[dhweather]

There are so many things at work right now, it is extremely hard to say.

Last night, Stewart indicated in the discussion that the SW shear should stop in 24-26 hours.

[bree4bryce]

It was Steve Lyons at the 950am update.

[Stormcenter]

same link as before http://www.nwhhc.com/atl062004forecast.html


Ivan is coming soon, just have been waiting for the ATCF to update. You wont like the ivan forecast

She looks stalled right now. Would that affect your future track?

[canegrl04]

Steve Lyons is an idiot when it comes to tropical forecasting

[Three Blind Mice]

excuse me........

[d]

[quote="dennis1x1"]its kind of amazing that we cant detect a forecast shear so strong that it rips apart a cat4 hurricane in the matter of hours even a day in advance....[/quote]

It's not shear, it's dry air...look at a water vapor and you can see this...

[x-y-no]

Please, ease off everyone. Ncweatherwizard is at least laying it on the line by puttin a forecast out there. I, for one, haven't ventured to put my ass on the line to that extent yet, although I'm tempted to try soon.

[TLHR]

Frances is looking better.

Any calls for its death are pre-mature.

[Hyperstorm]

I should have just gone with what I had expected in previous forecasts...better be on the safe side. Frances is definitely down to a Category 2 hurricane by now, although, we all know NHC will be reluctant to downgrade, understandably so no one will let their guard down too early. This shear is monsterous right now, and is really starting to rip apart the system. The pressure is starting to increase as expected, and it won't be long before all this gets to the inner core--which is really fighting off the shear well for now. But another 24 hours of this shear, and the core may begin to collapse. It's not impossible that we'll have a tropical storm tomorrow--although I do have my majority doubts with this. For now, expect pressures to increase roughly into the 970s today.

its not the shear that is hurting frances, its a lot of dry air being wrapped around her western flank from the north and west. that is clearly visible on water vapor imagery. the shear is "monsterous right now" is laughable. as well as the idea it will become a tropical storm. more than likely she will level off in the 960 to 965mb range today but she will NOT strengthen unless that dry air lessons. which, looking at the water vapor, there is plenty of it across florida so i wouldnt expect any strengthening or very little today or tonight. i still belive she will be a strong cat 3 or low cat 4 on landfall but the strengthening wont happen until tomorrow. if that dry air does not let up, she will remain in the 110 to 120 range.

Dry air is NOT the root of the problem. The MAIN reason for the weakening is the outflow restriction on the western side due to westerly shear. I agree, the shear is NOT monstrous, but it sure is a factor. BECAUSE of the shear we're seeing dry air just west of the storm. Don't you understand that the hurricane has been traveling over a pool of dry air throughout its ENTIRE lifetime? Why do we have that same dry air on its western flank? Because of the SHEAR...THAT is the root of the problem.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

NO...I heard niece say that....

[joseph01]

Steve Lyons is an idiot when it comes to tropical forecasting

I would wager a considerable amount of money, that he knows considerably more than you.

[dennis1x1]

frances definitely not looking better, looking worse every sat pic.

and no.....its shear....thats ripped it apart.....and the NHC says as much. relative humidities are higher now than they were 3 days ago.