Frances Advisories
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mf_dolphin
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golter
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TLHR
dennis1x1 wrote:frances definitely not looking better, looking worse every sat pic.
and no.....its shear....thats ripped it apart.....and the NHC says as much. relative humidities are higher now than they were 3 days ago.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/Regi ... llite.html
Looks beter to me....
Notice a few rain bands are off the GA coast heading towards central GA.
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TexasStooge
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dennis1x1
i dont see it...the storm is still be sheared from left to right based on latest satellite....
from NHC:
Also...shear analyses from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin now show 15-20 kt of westerly shear across
Frances. The SHIPS model forecast this shear to persist until just
before landfall.
from NHC:
Also...shear analyses from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin now show 15-20 kt of westerly shear across
Frances. The SHIPS model forecast this shear to persist until just
before landfall.
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Frances Brick-Walls
Looks like our feared monster is being weakened. Well, good, that way less people will get hurt.
To sweep up some mistakes, the second High was strengthening, but because it was a narrow slot it didn't have the depth to hard turn Frances. Not pseudo-science, just a failure to understand the specific nature of the turning High which can vary.
To show how crazy cyclone forecasting can be, the model that was rejected and criticized, GFDL, is the one that called for this gradual weakening.
My view of this is that the High wasn't strong enough to turn it, but it was strong enough to brace it so some weak shear combined with dry air could affect its structure. Nobody has mentioned what I think to be the real source. That is, the huge dry airmass over the Caribbean. I think storms like this get their real power from tropical air inflow drawn from their south. If you look at the Caribbean it has an unusually dry airmass throughout. That's a bad fuel-mix for cyclones.
I don't think physics would allow a slow-moving storm to not boost over the Gulf Stream.
Less people are signed on today. Hmmm. Fair-weather disaster fans. Guess they don't know what hurricanes can do.
Well, I learned a new cyclone lesson yesterday. Pigtail wobbles do not necessarily connote intensification. There's obviously a second type of wobble I didn't realize...
To sweep up some mistakes, the second High was strengthening, but because it was a narrow slot it didn't have the depth to hard turn Frances. Not pseudo-science, just a failure to understand the specific nature of the turning High which can vary.
To show how crazy cyclone forecasting can be, the model that was rejected and criticized, GFDL, is the one that called for this gradual weakening.
My view of this is that the High wasn't strong enough to turn it, but it was strong enough to brace it so some weak shear combined with dry air could affect its structure. Nobody has mentioned what I think to be the real source. That is, the huge dry airmass over the Caribbean. I think storms like this get their real power from tropical air inflow drawn from their south. If you look at the Caribbean it has an unusually dry airmass throughout. That's a bad fuel-mix for cyclones.
I don't think physics would allow a slow-moving storm to not boost over the Gulf Stream.
Less people are signed on today. Hmmm. Fair-weather disaster fans. Guess they don't know what hurricanes can do.
Well, I learned a new cyclone lesson yesterday. Pigtail wobbles do not necessarily connote intensification. There's obviously a second type of wobble I didn't realize...
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TLHR
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charleston_hugo_veteran
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Derek Ortt
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Hyperstorm
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x-y-no wrote:BigEyedFish wrote:Amazing how strong and dangerous Frances was and now only to be a shell of her former storm...as this thing falls apart the Weather experts look like they cried wolf and unnecessary panic
Yeah, unfortunately a lot of people would think that, but they'd be wrong.
Forecasting, particularly of intensity but also of path is just an incredibly hard problem, and unfortunately the logistics of getting our enormous coastal populations to safety is such a huge and time-consuming tast that the call has to be made long before we can confidently know what will happen.
The alternative is to put lots of lives at risk.
I ask people who mean lady about this something like this: Suppose you were seated in a room 6 feet wide, and you know that a bullet is going to fly though that room in the near future. You can just sit there, or you can buy yourself a bullet-proof vest for $400 or for $800 you can be let out of the room. If you stay there, there's only a 10% chance you'll actually get hit. What would you do?
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Edited because I used "huge" three times. I hate when I do stuff like that.
Great metaphor!
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Derek Ortt
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dennis1x1
.....but seriously....the SHIPS model does not have intensification...
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dennis1x1
Sanibel, it is very dry across the carribean for this time of year...It was this cutoff TUTT that originally helped Frances with her outflow a couple of days ago and now has entrained dry air and some vertical shear to her core structure...whether she recovers remains to be seen however she is running out of time..
Last edited by d on Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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