Look out SC?

Guest · #1 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:25 am

FRIDAY POST / ACCUWEATHER
CONCERNS ABOUT A NON-HIT TO FLORIDA GROWING....

I maybe wrong this morning by saying this, but I'm very concerned that Frances glances Florida and heads towards South Carolina. Here's why...

1. The storm has slowed down and is about even with the southern tip of Florida, so nay dramatic turn to the west will not happen until later in the game if it does at all.

2. Radar now shows the eye of the storm passing over the north shore of Eleuthera Island on a more north-northwest course.

3. The trough over Arkansas is lifting northeast and is actually blocking any westward advance of the storm. Check the cloud and moisture movement on the Water Vapor imagery.

4. Once the Arkansas trough lifts northeast, the ridge will re-build across the East in the advance of the western trough. The ridge axis in 48 hours will be from the eastern Great Lakes to the Florida Panhandle. The storm will sense the axis and try to head towards the center point which will bring the storm towards South Carolina.

Look folks, this has been a concern all along. I know I have been bullish on a Florida hit, but as I have watched things evolve this morning, I'm growing more concerned that we have another Floyd type track. That's not to say that folks in Florida should head back home. They should continue prepare and follow local FEMA and EMA's directions.

The 12z model runs are about to come in and once they have I will let you know my thoughts...

dennis1x1 · #2 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:28 am

well there would be PLENTY of time to prepare should this unlikely scenario play out.

also....now that shes but a memory of her former self the importance and scope of possible evacuations are much diminished.

#3 Postby **charleston_hugo_veteran** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:28 am

#4 Postby **seahawkjd** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:28 am

I was about to write this off until I read it. Getting too trained in the definetely hitting florida school of thought. Very interesting read, any else want to comment on it?

AlexiBlue · #5 Postby **AlexiBlue** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:34 am

All I have to say is that it is nice that if someone is going to speculate on such a dramatic turn of track - that at least this time they have good, solid reasoning behind their idea! And they admit that they might be wrong!

THIS is the kind of reasoned, humble speculation that I have come to respect and appreciate on this board. Bravo.

And I do hope you are wrong. I live in Charleston, SC. And after what little ole' Tropical Storm Bonnie and little ole' Tropical Storm Gaston did around this area - I don't even want to THINK about even a Cat 1 storm heading this way!

Guest · #6 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:35 am

dennis1x1 wrote:well there would be PLENTY of time to prepare should this unlikely scenario play out.

also....now that shes but a memory of her former self the importance and scope of possible evacuations are much diminished.

"Unlikely"? Please elaborate.

TLHR · #7 Postby **TLHR** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:35 am

Ugh.

Did hurricane_lover re-register...

Look.

Charleston has been in the cone for many days now. So there has always been a remote chance that the storm could come our way.

But we all have to trust the trained professionals covering this storm.
I'm sorry, but I am more likely to trust the NHC and The Weather Channel than a handful of people on some message board.

Even if Frances comes our way, we will have DAYS to prepare.

Enough with the "Sky Is Falling" sh!t.

:grr:

Guest · #8 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:36 am

The Weather Channel? LMAO!!!

Website · #9 Postby **Brent** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:36 am

No. Florida.

dennis1x1 · #10 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:37 am

im sorry...i should have defined that i put too much trust in the NHC so any forecast, while i would not completely discount, that tracks hundreds of miles from the official forecast i call unlikely.

#11 Postby **seahawkjd** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:37 am

Good grief man, you berate hurricane_lover for not giving evidence and making claims to scare people, then when someone makes a reasoned forcast backed up with evidence you attack them too. Who exactly is the heckler here?

quickychick · #12 Postby **quickychick** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:38 am

Enough with the "Sky Is Falling" sh!t.

Aw, now, CLTRDU made a good post with cogent arguments to back up his/her opinion and that's the best most of us could do. Yes, there are pro's covering all bases, but CLTRDU didn't make the case that Floridians have nothing to worry about. His/her forecast is unlikely but stranger things have happened.

Basically the type of post the poster-who-shall-not-be-named would be better off making.

#13 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:39 am

TLHR wrote:Ugh.

Did hurricane_lover re-register...

Look.

Charleston has been in the cone for many days now. So there has always been a remote chance that the storm could come our way.

But we all have to trust the trained professionals covering this storm.
I'm sorry, but I am more likely to trust the NHC and The Weather Channel than a handful of people on some message board.

Even if Frances comes our way, we will have DAYS to prepare.

Enough with the "Sky Is Falling" sh!t.

Well said!!!!!

TLHR · #14 Postby **TLHR** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:40 am

If I am wrong and Frances comes our way.
I will humbly apologize once power is restored.

In the meantime, I've been dipping into my hurricane supplies.
Mmmmm....Luna Bars....

#15 Postby **seahawkjd** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:40 am

Ah, the heckler who shall not be named. I think its a myth propogated by the creators of this board to create a utopian society where hurricane forcasts are reasoned and thought out once they fled from the other boards where heckling and -removed- were rampant. A myth I tell you!!!

Guest · #16 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:42 am

TLHR wrote:Ugh.

Did hurricane_lover re-register...

Look.

Charleston has been in the cone for many days now. So there has always been a remote chance that the storm could come our way.

But we all have to trust the trained professionals covering this storm.
I'm sorry, but I am more likely to trust the NHC and The Weather Channel than a handful of people on some message board.

Even if Frances comes our way, we will have DAYS to prepare.

Enough with the "Sky Is Falling" sh!t.

That's just wrong and unreasonable.

BTW, don't scold me for "sky-is-falling" sh!t when a great deal of unsupported posts on this site are from people who are in panic mode.

Guest · #17 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:43 am

seahawkjd wrote:Ah, the heckler who shall not be named. I think its a myth propogated by the creators of this board to create a utopian society where hurricane forcasts are reasoned and thought out once they fled from the other boards where heckling and -removed- were rampant. A myth I tell you!!!

TLHR · #18 Postby **TLHR** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:44 am

So it's like Voldemort??

#19 Postby **seahawkjd** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:45 am

No, the village.

Guest · #20 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:46 am

Please?

Look out SC?

Look out SC?

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