Look out SC?

[quickychick]

I'm afraid if you say his name three times he'll come back, like Beetlejuice.

[OklahomaWeather]

Thank you CLTRDU for giving reasonings! They are valid concerns!

[AlexiBlue]

How about for once we have a reasonable discussion of the possibilities of a more Northern track of the Hurricane without name-calling, bashing, flaming or other issues?

It seems that it is impossible for anyone to discuss the theory of the storm taking a more northern track without it causing a flame war. Even if it is NOT a post from the-one-who-shall-not-be-named.

How about reasonable, thoughtful, explained responses to the whys and why nots of such a track shift?

Because I LIVE up here folks, and I would really like to see at least one reasonable discussion of the outside possibility!

I know everyone is in Florida panic mode, and YES, that is the most, most, most likely landfall - and where I personally believe it will go. But I don't think it is too much to ask for ONE thread with reasonable discussion of a more Northern track for us folks who aren't in Florida and have enough sense to at least keep our guard up and have perfectly reasonable worries about the unpredictable nature of hurricanes.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

I'm afraid if you say his name three times he'll come back, like Beetlejuice.

[seahawkjd]

I'm sorry, I got sucked into the humour of the replies and was trying to revert it from a flaming session. Maybe the actual forcast and reasoning should be posted again in another post, it was a good read.

[TLHR]

OK. Granted.

At least you did offer some plausible hypothesis.

But look at my original statement.

"Charleston has been in the cone for many days now. So there has always been a remote chance that the storm could come our way.

But we all have to trust the trained professionals covering this storm.
I'm sorry, but I am more likely to trust the NHC and The Weather Channel than a handful of people on some message board.

Even if Frances comes our way, we will have DAYS to prepare."

This is unreasonable?

I have a hurricane kit.
Why?
Because for the past 3 to 4 days, Charleston has been in the cone!
There has always been a chance that Frances could curve to the north.
Floyd did.

But until there is CLEAR evidence that a major turn is happening, I find posts like these unreasonable because I know for a fact that there are inexperienced people , who live in SC, who have never been through a hurricane before, who read posts like these and freak out.

Frances is coming ashore in Florida until trained professionals say otherwise.

[seahawkjd]

You made good comments and then degraded your post into a flame. Its been stated over and over that this is a place for people to learn and post their forcasts, of course people should pay attention to the NHC and follow any local emc mandates. But, there is always enough uncertainty that all posibilities should be examined. Which is better, to know its a chance and be prepared or not know till there's 12 hours till it hits and get caught off guard?

[Guest]

But until there is CLEAR evidence that a major turn is happening, I find posts like these unreasonable because I know for a fact that there are inexperienced people , who live in SC, who have never been through a hurricane before, who read posts like these and freak out.

Frances is coming ashore in Florida until trained professionals say otherwise.

Two points...

1.) People in Florida aren't "freaking out"? People will freak out no matter where they live, no matter what their experience (or lack of) with previous storms.

2.) "Professional Forecasters" predicted Charlie would hit Tampa, predicted Floyd would hit Florida, predicted Gaston was history after a romp through central NC...

I started a new thread for people who want to think and discuss...

[RevDodd]

I've heard stranger scenarios. Heck, I've SEEN stranger. This solution is similar to the Floyd blocker, just later in development.

It's like a frind of mine who SWEARS Duke can win the ACC football title. As long as he can rationally support the notion, I'll listen. I won't buy it, but I'll listen.

[GaryOBX]

Would it surprise any of you that the post made by CLTRDU IS from a trained professional forecaster?

[Guest]

I'm sorry, I got sucked into the humour of the replies and was trying to revert it from a flaming session. Maybe the actual forcast and reasoning should be posted again in another post, it was a good read.

It's been reposted. Thank you for the suggestion and support of intelligent discussion and support of the notion that this site is also about learning.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Would it surprise any of you that the post made by CLTRDU IS from a trained professional forecaster?

i can tell by his terminology that he is....

[Guest]

Would it surprise any of you that the post made by CLTRDU IS from a trained professional forecaster?

[quickychick]

Frances is coming ashore in Florida until trained professionals say otherwise.

I think Frances, who is clearly not interested in being a clear-cut storm, will probably have the last say in that...and not wait to see what the forecasters tell her to do. :lol

[Guest]

Frances is coming ashore in Florida until trained professionals say otherwise.

I think Frances, who is clearly not interested in being a clear-cut storm, will probably have the last say in that...and not wait to see what the forecasters tell her to do. :lol

Exactly!

[das8929]

All I can say is it is nice to see some more people I disagree with from SC. Folks this storm is NOT hitting SC just because a few models have it hitting Jacksonville. If you see the path, SC is NOT in the cone of probability. Just because it is moving NW, like it was yesterday as well, doesnt mean its hitting SC. If you see the center, it clearly takes it just east of WPB, and into St Lucie County. It then rides up the FL peninsula into GA.

[c5Camille]

this is starting to look more and morel like a
Florida State / South Carolina fan base...

[quickychick]

Exactly!

Don't get me wrong, CLTRDU, based on what MWatkins and Derek Ortt have posted, and NHC discussions, I believe she's hitting Florida and sticking close to those tracks. But I enjoy reading your thoughts as to your disagreement with that.

I just don't think Frances and Mother Nature take direction from any measly human being and the thought that she WILL do "whatever" until a forecaster says "nuh uh" whereupon she'll go, "oh, my bad," and do as the forecaster says was a rather amusing thought. Frances, she is an insolent teenager.

[Guest]

All I can say is it is nice to see some more people I disagree with from SC. Folks this storm is NOT hitting SC just because a few models have it hitting Jacksonville. If you see the path, SC is NOT in the cone of probability. Just because it is moving NW, like it was yesterday as well, doesnt mean its hitting SC. If you see the center, it clearly takes it just east of WPB, and into St Lucie County. It then rides up the FL peninsula into GA.

I love the use of this word, "wishcaster". I'm guessing you actually hope this storm hits you.

The point was this COULD MAYBE not make landfall in Florida. As a Florida resident, I would assume this would make you HAPPY not jealous!!!

Man, you are sick.

[c5Camille]

this is starting to look more and more like
a College football Florida State / South Carolina
fan base...