A LITTLE HELP HERE PLEASE!!!!

[rtd2]

most of y'all know my track(w to wnw into S.FLA-gomex) and I'm not one to call every wobble or jog....please look at I.R. below and give me your thoughts....iS IT DRIFTING WEST OR IS the west side of the storm just building back up giving a false west mvt. look? thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[Canelaw99]

I was just looking at that and wondering the same thing, so I'd love to see some informative answers on this...

[x-y-no]

The problem is that with no eye, it's real hard to judge the center of circulation ...

The motion since last night has been just west of NW - somewhere between 300 and 310 I think.

Even if the eye does wind up forming again a little to the left of the forecast track, I don't think it's enough to make a big difference. Major effectts look likely to be from West Palm north.

[Downdraft]

No it is not drifting west. It is moving right along with the guidance west-northwest.

[rtd2]

I see other post has local mets mentioning this they (nhc) are giving it a look i'm sure

[GalvestonDuck]

most of y'all know my track(w to wnw into S.FLA-gomex) and I'm not one to call every wobble or jog....please look at I.R. below and give me your thoughts....iS IT DRIFTING WEST OR IS the west side of the storm just building back up giving a false west mvt. look? thanks!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

One of the things I've learned here at S2K...for amateurs like me - don't look at the IR, look at the visible satellite http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html when trying to determine direction. Our eyes tend to follow the convection and not the circulation.

[Brent]

The convection is rapidly expanding westward, but the center isn't moving much and it's not due west when it does.

[rtd2]

Qoute"One of the things I've learned here at S2K...for amateurs like me - don't look at the IR, look at the visible satellite http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html when trying to determine direction. Our eyes tend to follow the convection and not the circulation"






You are 100% correct! and I really hate to bring this up with my previous west(270*-285*) chants and tracks but.....VISIBLE LOOKS WEST TOO!

[x-y-no]

One of the things I've learned here at S2K...for amateurs like me - don't look at the IR, look at the visible satellite http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html when trying to determine direction. Our eyes tend to follow the convection and not the circulation.

Yes, or better still consult both. Also, sometimes one can get a better feeling for it by looking at the overall circulation rather than trying to focus on a point.

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p.s. Looky there ... I went from "tropical low" to "tropical depression" ... I feel so important now, LOL!

[rtd2]

Man tose Islands are getting hammered! almost looks stalled AGAIN

http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~rickk/frances.html

[Janie34]

You have to keep in mind that the west side of Francis has been sheared pretty badly over the last several hours. The shear seems to have displaced the upper-level anticyclone, which means it can't ventilate itself properly. So, you have the weakening. I think its the storm trying to recover from the effects of that and thus you have some convective build-up in that quadrant.