Will she weaken or strengthen?

[hurricane_lover]

I say weaken to a cat 2 by landfall.

[PurdueWx80]

I don't know, but I wonder if she'll go to North Carolina now?? Hmmmmm.....

[Skywatch_NC]

I don't know, but I wonder if she'll go to North Carolina now?? Hmmmmm.....

Just rain from her in western and possibly central NC by Tues. and Wed.

Eric

[quickychick]

I don't know, but I wonder if she'll go to North Carolina now?? Hmmmmm.....

And I bite my lip to keep the mirth in.

And I'll put my last 50 cents on winds up 10 mph before landfall, with not a thing to base it on except a coin flip.

[jagesq]

Uncalled for. I didn't necesarrily agree with Hurricane_Lover's forecast, but I certainly never criticiized it because quite frankly, everybody is entitled to their own opinion. I think its time we drop this BS.

[vbhoutex]

From the local discussion out of Melbourne NWS.

SAT-MON...WHILE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND SLP CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY RISE OWING TO CONTINUED WRAPPING IN OF RELATIVELY LOW PWAT
AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR FROM A H20 CYCLONE WHICH FORMED SOUTH
OF CUBA ...RECON CONFIRMS REFORMING OF A BROKEN EYEWALL AND IT'S
PRESENTATION ON VIS/IR SATELLITE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT TAKES PLACE TONIGHT/SAT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LINGERING
ALONG FRANCES' WRN FLANK INTO THE ERN GOMEX. IT'S SLOW MOTION WILL
ALLOW FRANCES TO LUMBER NWWD OVER HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
INCLUDING THE GULF STREAM. ALSO...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H20
HIGH CENTER SOUTH OF CUBA DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING AS AN
AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAUSES A RIDGE TO POP FROM
THE NRN GOMEX INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO PLACE FRANCES IS
AN AREA OF LESSENING SHEAR IN THE COL BTWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE ONE OVER THE WRN ATLC. FRANCES SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
HOLD HER OWN.

[PurdueWx80]

From the local discussion out of Melbourne NWS.

SAT-MON...WHILE THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED AND SLP CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY RISE OWING TO CONTINUED WRAPPING IN OF RELATIVELY LOW PWAT
AIR AND UPPER LEVEL SW SHEAR FROM A H20 CYCLONE WHICH FORMED SOUTH
OF CUBA ...RECON CONFIRMS REFORMING OF A BROKEN EYEWALL AND IT'S
PRESENTATION ON VIS/IR SATELLITE IS A LITTLE BETTER THAN THIS
MORNING. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT TAKES PLACE TONIGHT/SAT.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW RELATIVELY DRIER AIR LINGERING
ALONG FRANCES' WRN FLANK INTO THE ERN GOMEX. IT'S SLOW MOTION WILL
ALLOW FRANCES TO LUMBER NWWD OVER HIGH UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...
INCLUDING THE GULF STREAM. ALSO...SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE H20
HIGH CENTER SOUTH OF CUBA DRIFTING WESTWARD AND WEAKENING AS AN
AMPLIFYING WRN CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAUSES A RIDGE TO POP FROM
THE NRN GOMEX INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS APPEARS TO PLACE FRANCES IS
AN AREA OF LESSENING SHEAR IN THE COL BTWN THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE
AND THE ONE OVER THE WRN ATLC. FRANCES SHOULD BE ABLE TO AT LEAST
HOLD HER OWN.

That's a very insightful discussion. I was noticing that Miami and FLL's dewpoints were down in the 60's for a few hours - so the storm was throwing some of that dry air all the way to the surface. That and the shear is obviously what has been weakening her. It makes sense to me that the slower she moves, the more dry air she'll be able to mix out (by mix out I mean that the storm will be able to mix in more moist air from the surface and get rid of the dry air, as long as it doesn't keep getting ingested in). If this happens, and the shear lessens as forecast, it is entirely possible to regain strength. How much depends how long she sits over the Gulf Stream without having much land interaction. I honestly think everyone should still prepare for a Cat 4 - not that a Cat 3 is better, but her otherwise excellent satellite presentation seems to indicate regeneration is possible.

[ilmc172pilot]

I say a weak cat 3 at landfall

[ncbird]

I thought this Tropical Weather Discussion by Gary Gray was very good on the difficutly of this subject.

http://millenniumweather.com/tropt2/discuss.html

NCbird

[ncbird]

opps wrong link try this one... sorry

http://millenniumweather.com/tropical/discuss.html

[Janie34]

Regeneration is certainly a possibility, not that she is exactly a slouch right now. In fact, we may be seeing the beginning of this process as we type. The shear is going to move off rather soon, I think. However, she will have a limited time frame in which to regenerate. Basically, I'm in agreement. Prepare for a Cat 4 to be on the safe side. However, I do have a caveat: I don't see her regaining Cat 4 status unless she stalls over the Gulf Stream and everything is in place for such a great regeneration. My estimation is a weak to moderate Cat 3.

[Brent]

I don't really expect much either way. I expect 115 or 120 mph at landfall.