5 PM Ivan=50 mph moving WSW

[cycloneye]

Center Advisories
Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT24 KNHC 032047 ***
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092004
2100Z FRI SEP 03 2004

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 34.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 8.9N 34.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 33.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 8.7N 37.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 8.7N 40.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 9.0N 43.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 75NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 9.8N 46.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 11.5N 53.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 8.9N 34.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH


$$


If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT24 data were found.
** WTNT34 KNHC 032048 ***
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM IVAN ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM AST FRI SEP 03 2004

...IVAN CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...

AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 8.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 34.6 WEST OR ABOUT 865
MILES...1395 KM... WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

IVAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH
...32 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH... 85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES
... 95 KM FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION... 8.9 N... 34.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 PM AST.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

[das8929]

WSW? Thats rather odd!

[cycloneye]

Data from the Plymouth State Weather Center.
Click here for more tropical weather information.

** WTNT44 KNHC 032047 ***
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM IVAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

METEOSAT-8 VISIBLE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CURVED BAND
WRAPPING ABOUT TWO-THIRDS AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER. DVORAK T
NUMBERS ARE 3.0 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS 45 KT BASED ON THESE ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IS
WELL-DEFINED AND EXPANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS...INDICATIVE OF WEAK
VERTICAL SHEAR. THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND BRINGS IVAN TO
HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 36 HOURS AND TO 100 KNOTS BY 120
HOURS...WHICH IS LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFDL.

IVAN IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SOUTH OF DUE WEST...NOW 255/17. THE
TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY CURRENT SOUTH OF
A STRONG RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OR BUILD WESTWARD
ALONG WITH IVAN FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS OR SO...THEREFORE A GENERAL
WESTWARD AND EVENTUALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE NOGAPS AND GFDN TURN IVAN TO THE
NORTHWEST WELL EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...BUT THIS SCENARIO
SEEMS LESS LIKELY GIVEN THE INITIAL MOTION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS...ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER KNABB/PASCH

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 8.9N 34.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 8.7N 37.1W 55 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 8.7N 40.3W 60 KT
36HR VT 05/0600Z 9.0N 43.4W 65 KT
48HR VT 05/1800Z 9.8N 46.6W 75 KT
72HR VT 06/1800Z 11.5N 53.0W 90 KT
96HR VT 07/1800Z 13.0N 59.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 08/1800Z 15.0N 64.5W 100 KT

[Derek Ortt]

sadly to say, this will be destructive storm #4 this year (charley, frances, and gaston being the other 3).

I wonder what the 2010 name list will be? I do know that many names form this year wont be appearing

[STORMSURGE]

Yeah derek, I agree, Ivan looks more than ready to take center stage when Francis is done. and the way things are shaping up, Hes probably not the last whopper to come down the pipeline this season.

[Matthew5]

Some of you would be pulling your hair out of your head if this was 1995 or 1933???

[Guest]

the pattern with storms this season has been weird... notice alex and bonnie didn't affect land that much, and then charley hit as a major. danielle and earl didn't hit land, and frances will probably hit as a cat 3/4. Gaston and Hermine hit land, Gaston had the bigger impact however it wasn't that much, and Ivan could affect land as a major too. 1, 2 THREE 1,2, THREE. lol.

[STORMSURGE]

I DID pull my hair out in 95, but it grew back, so I shaved it prior to this season!

[cycloneye]

I am very worried here in Puerto Rico because if it hooks more right than what the forecast says it may slam into here as a cat 3-4.

[ilmc172pilot]

It's been a wild season so far.......what does the future hol?

[HURAKAN]

Which storm in the Atlantic moved the closest to the Equator? I know that globally was Typhoon Vamei which was in 1.5 N when it reached storm status.

[Derek Ortt]

at least in 1995, most stayed out to sea. This is more reminicent of 1933 or 1996, and probably more accurately, 1999 where nearly everything that forms hits land and does so very hard

[cycloneye]

And this will not slam into South America as it appears because it will resume a west track and then a WNW one before it reaches the lesser antilles.

[Matthew5]

It is a very interesting hurricane season so far!

[NJCane]

Yea, then NW which I am sure is what is making you so watchful of this one cycloneye

[Hyperstorm]

The furthest south a storm has formed in the Atlantic was probably Tropical Storm Pablo in October 1995. It formed near latitude 8.3.

[opera ghost]

It's the Hurricane Waltz!

On a more serious note- I'm keeping an eye on Ivan... but he's less stressful to watch than Frances at the moment. He's not doing anything too bizzare and is a few days from any kind of land.

Kinda relaxing.