WOW!! NEW GFS

mobilebay · #1 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:49 pm

shows that frances is over Gulf longer and much further west, more toward my neck of the woods :eek:

The GFDL has also been trending more west, so this may get interesting up here in the GOM!

#2 Postby **HURAKAN** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:51 pm

mobilebay, can you post the webpage?

#3 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:51 pm

What the heck is that all about? In that model it looks like she goes northwest then south a little while over land?? huh?

#4 Postby **skysummit** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:52 pm

Link please????

#5 Postby **Deenac813** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:53 pm

here is a link to all of the models.

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/

SunnyThoughts · #6 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 5:55 pm

Yeah Mobile, watching closely here In Pensacola....as you are in Mobile. I just want to relay my best wishes to everyone on the east coast of FLorida, wherever she decides to cross the coast. We will have all of you in our thoughts. I sincerely hope the damage is minimal and all of you make it through safely.

AL Chili Pepper · #7 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:01 pm

Another link to GFS.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/

Website · #8 Postby **FritzPaul** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:03 pm

That GFDL for Ivan looks scary. Carib. storms like to get in GOM. :eek:

rsm · #9 Postby **rsm** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:12 pm

That model is pretty old considering all that has happened in the last few hours. Wait for the 090400Z to come out.

mobilebay · #10 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:16 pm

rsm wrote:That model is pretty old considering all that has happened in the last few hours. Wait for the 090400Z to come out.

That model is updated as of 18Z conditions. In fact, the 06z, and 18Z runs of that model has verified alot better than the 00z, aand 12Z. Also, this westwerd trend started with the 12Z run. Check it out..

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:32 pm

New change to gfdl
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

mobilebay · #12 Postby **mobilebay** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:36 pm

Frederic1979 wrote:New change to gfdl
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... model.html

wow. we are not out of the woods.

Janie34 · #13 Postby **Janie34** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:47 pm

NWS-Mobile considers things as well:

...POTENTIAL HURRICANE FRANCES IMPACTS ON CENTRAL ALABAMA...

HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST THIS AFTERNOON...TRAVELING WEST
NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE AROUND 115 MPH.
AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TROPICAL PREDICTION
CENTER (TPC) HAS THE REMNANTS OF FRANCES MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHWEST...TOWARD SOUTHEAST ALABAMA LATE MONDAY NIGHT...AND ACROSS
PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
OFFICIAL HURRICANE FORECAST TRACK FOR DETAILS.

THERE REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
REMNANTS OF HURRICANE FRANCES. MUCH OF THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND APPEARS
FREE OF ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS. BUT RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN
INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...FRANCES WOULD BE A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA ON TUESDAY. LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY WITH AS MUCH AS TWO TO FOUR INCHES
OCCURRING LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS
WOULD OCCUR CLOSE TO THE ALABAMA GEORGIA STATELINE...IN THE VICINITY
OF US 431. POTENTIAL WIND GUST MAY REACH AS HIGH AS 35 MPH.

A SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK WESTWARD WOULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...THUNDERSTORMS...AND WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS ADVERSE WEATHER WOULD BECOME MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD. A
SHIFT IN THE FORECAST TRACK EASTWARD WOULD GREATLY IMPROVE THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH LOWER RAIN
AMOUNTS AND LOWER WIND GUSTS.

HOLIDAY TRAVELERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL BE
IMPACTED BY THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES TO SOME EXTENT. DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK THIS FAR OUT...PLEASE REMAIN AWARE
OF THE PROGRESS OF FRANCES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND

AL Chili Pepper · #14 Postby **AL Chili Pepper** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:48 pm

Ships must still be on it's coffee break. Strengthening while over land? Not!

* I see they fixed it.

Guest · #15 Postby **Guest** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:18 pm

More

http://weather.unisys.com/ecmwf/ecmwf_500p_4panel.html

#16 Postby **baygirl_1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:25 pm

One thing I did not understand on the local news (WPMI) tonight: They were talking about readying some of the high schools (Baker, Theodore, etc.) as shelters... buses being moved away from low-lying areas... sandbags being prepared. :eek:

They know something they're not telling the rest of us? Or just extremely cautious??

#17 Postby **dhweather** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:29 pm

Well, Frances isn't doing anything anyone says,
so they are just throwing stuff out now.

Quite interesting with the westward shift in model consensus.

Janie34 · #18 Postby **Janie34** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:30 pm

Looks like they are just being extra cautious. I rather doubt anyone at Barton Academy knows more about Frances than the NWS.

#19 Postby **baygirl_1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:33 pm

Here's a link to that story on their website:
http://www.wpmi.com/news/local/story.as ... 01D55B3371

(Hope that works... first time I've tried to post a link.)

Janie34 · #20 Postby **Janie34** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:33 pm

Quite interesting with the westward shift in model consensus.

Hrmmmm, I haven't the time at the moment to investigate, but perhaps the models are weakening the trough moving in from the west?

WOW!! NEW GFS

WOW!! NEW GFS

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