Accuweather 6 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 3, 2004 6:14 p.m.


Hurricane Frances, as of 5 P.M. EDT, is centered at 25.9 north and 77.5 west, or 171 miles east southeast of West Palm Beach, Florida. The hurricane is moving to the west-northwest at about 8 mph with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph and gusts to 140 mph. The west northwest movement at 8 mph should continue over the next 24 hours with a further decrease in forward speed possible. This means that the storm will continue to pummel the northern Bahamas into Saturday. Nassau had a wind gust to 111 mph Friday afternoon and winds were reaching tropical storm force over Grand Bahama into southeast Florida by late Friday afternoon.

The hurricane will approach the Florida coast Saturday night and it could make landfall between 6 P.M. and midnight Saturday night between West Palm beach and Melbourne Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 115 mph, making the storm a powerful category 3 storm on Saffir-Simpson scale. The satellite presentation looked somewhat ragged during Friday morning and early Friday afternoon. However, recent images both by satellite and radar suggests the hurricane is attempting to strengthen. Reports from reconnaissance aircraft in the hurricane show a slight drop in pressure during late Friday afternoon. So, there is still plenty of time for this hurricane to become stronger. Another concern is that as the hurricane slows it's foreword motion will become more erratic. A large wobble to the north or south could affect landfall time and location

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for Florida's east coast, from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys, from south of Florida City, to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay. And, a hurricane watch is now in effect from north of Flagler Beach, to Fernandina Beach.

Now that we have discussed the possibilities, here is the current expectation. While Frances is not a growing category 4 like Charley or even Andrew it still is a major hurricane. Current thought is that it will remain a category 3 hurricane and could intensify back to a category 4. A slower motion could cause upwelling under the hurricane causing it to weaken to a category 2 hurricane. But we are still talking about winds of more than 100 mph with gusts over 130 mph even with a category 2 which can still cause tremendous damage. The slow movement of this hurricane will translate into torrential, flooding rains, over several hours within a couple of hundred miles along the path Frances takes into the deep south or southeast U.S. A storm surge of 6-10 feet appears likely near and north of where the eye crosses the coast. The storm surge will be limited to 6-10 feet by the fact the the coast curves northwestward, and therefore the storm will not be coming in perpendicular to the coast. Another aspect of landfalling hurricanes is the threat for tornadoes. This will be a big concern throughout the state of Florida from Saturday into Sunday.

As of 5 EDT, Tropical Storm Ivan was located near 8.9 north and 34.6 west or about 865 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 50 mph and the storm is moving west near 20 mph. Current forecast tracks by model output show this system tracking nearly due west for the next several days then maybe turning northwest. Current trends in satellite images suggest Ivan is in a good position to intensify into a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours. Long range forecast models take Ivan into the Caribbean Tuesday night then into the western Caribbean by the end of next week. There is great uncertainty where this system will end up toward the end of next week.

We are also keeping an eye on two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located about 1300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 25 north and 40 west or well northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both features have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. The system well northeast of the Leewards is moving west northwest and there is some concern it could develop into a depression in a day or two.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I lot of people were complaining of it begin a boring year just a month ago. Ivan could be terrible. I haven't looked at the GFDL tonight, but last night it had it at 929 mb in the Caribbean. I've seen GFDL over-intensify a storm many times, but the general consensus so far is that we'll have another powerful system to worry about in 5 days.

[Skywatch_NC]

Let us pray and hope there's some hostile shear and dry air intrusion, etc., to meet up w/ Ivan...

Eric