Dry Air has choked Frances

caneman · #1 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:30 pm

Forgiving me if it's been posted already. There are just too many posts to go thru. You can clearly see the dry air on the West of Frances. In fact, it looks like every time a moisture feed tries to wrap around and come over the state it dries it right up. If this keep up, it doesn't look like the flooding will be as big of a problem.

dennis1x1 · #2 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:32 pm

its not dry air...its shear...the shear is blowing the convection east and you have the signature that you see....

tampastorm · #3 Postby **tampastorm** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:33 pm

WHAT!!!! Flooding not a big problem, are you kidding me????

caneman · #4 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:34 pm

dennis1x1 wrote:its not dry air...its shear...the shear is blowing the convection east and you have the signature that you see....

I disagree. You can clearly see the dry sinking air to the West of Florida on Water Vapor and for back up it has been mentioned by Steve Lyons more than once.

Rainband · #5 Postby **Rainband** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:35 pm

Looks better on the WV :eek:

dennis1x1 · #6 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:36 pm

i agree....first of all the air is not dry....relative humidities are rather high...

the signature of dry air choking a storm is not just one half of the storm without cold cloud tops....the air gets wrapped around and you can see streaks throughout the storm..

the asymmetry of frances is clearly caused by westerly shear....hence all the bright white to the right, and nothing to the left, of the CDO.

caneman · #7 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:36 pm

tampastorm wrote:WHAT!!!! Flooding not a big problem, are you kidding me????

I said! MIFGHT NOT BE AS BIG OF A PROBLEM> Not it wouldn't be a problem but perhaps not as much as advertised. Of course, this can change.

#8 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:36 pm

According to a GPS meteorological site in Miami, the precipitable water vapor is still near or over 2". That is a CLEAR indicator that the air is not at all dry. Anything over 1.75" is a lot, and 2"+ is tropical by all means. The dewpoint did go down into the 60's along the SE FL coast for a bit, but they have been on the upswing as of late.

dennis1x1 · #9 Postby **dennis1x1** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:37 pm

the sinking air west of florida is subsidence in the wake of the storm.....like in every hurricane.

caneman · #10 Postby **caneman** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:39 pm

PurdueWx80 wrote:According to a GPS meteorological site in Miami, the precipitable water vapor is still near or over 2". That is a CLEAR indicator that the air is not at all dry. Anything over 1.75" is a lot, and 2"+ is tropical by all means. The dewpoint did go down into the 60's along the SE FL coast for a bit, but they have been on the upswing as of late.

What is your take do you concur with Dennis. Last analysis on shear values I saw was that shear wasn't a problem. If so, where is the shear coming from?

Anonymous · #11 Postby **Anonymous** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:39 pm

I dont think this hurricane will weaking anymore before it hits land, i think it will hit with winds of 110-125 mph when averaged. Warm water may help it get up to 120 mph winds, instead of 115 mph before it hits land. Any comments on this?

Derek Ortt · #12 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Fri Sep 03, 2004 6:41 pm

its mid-level dry air. surface RH values are high, but its the ML features that can prevent intensification

plus, it has been sheared

Dry Air has choked Frances

Dry Air has choked Frances

Who is online