Downgraded to cat 2 at 8

[cycloneye]

If nothing appears above but an error message, no current WTNT21 data were found.
** WTNT31 KNHC 032342 ***
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FRANCES INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 40A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
8 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004

...FRANCES WEAKENS SOME AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL PUMMEL THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM FLORIDA CITY NORTHWARD TO FLAGLER BEACH...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH NORTHWARD TO FERNANDINA BEACH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
FLORIDA KEYS FROM SOUTH OF FLORIDA CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE SEVEN MILE
BRIDGE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANCES WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.5 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES...
145 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND 200
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA LOWER EAST COAST.

FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4
MPH...6 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...STEERING CURRENTS HAVE BECOME WEAK AND
SOME ERRATIC MOTION CAN BE EXPECTED. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF
HURRICANE FRANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS TONIGHT...AND WILL BE NEAR THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...170 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THIS MAKES FRANCES A STRONG CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE. SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 185 MILES...295 KM. DURING THE PAST HOUR...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AT
ABACO ISLAND REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 88 MPH
AT GEORGETOWN...AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH AT LITTLE HARBOR. THE
SETTLEMENT POINT C-MAN STATION ON WESTERN GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH WITH A GUST TO 62 MPH
...AND A GUST TO 45 MPH WAS REPORTED AT THE LAKE WORTH FLORIDA
C-MAN STATION.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY A HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE WAS 960 MB...28.35 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 12 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE EYE
OF FRANCES ON THE NORTH SIDE OF GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND. STORM SURGE
FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE OTHER ISLANDS OF THE BAHAMAS. COASTAL STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH
LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL IN FLORIDA. STORM
SURGE FLOODING OF 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL LAKE WATER LEVEL IS EXPECTED
IN LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7 TO 12 INCHES...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 20 INCHES...
ARE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH FRANCES OVER THE BAHAMAS.

SWELLS GENERATED BY FRANCES WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE
DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENTS.

REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...25.9 N... 77.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 960 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 11 PM EDT.

FORECASTER STEWART

[Stephanie]

Yep. Dr. Steve Lyons is discussing this right now.

[hurricane_lover]

[msbee]

that's good news, but any chance she will re-strengthen before she gets to the coast?

[inotherwords]

Fabulous news! Let's hope it keeps up.

We're in for a lot of rain, but heck, I'll take that any day over deadly winds.

[FritzPaul]

Don't get to complacent. Look what Gaston did.

[cycloneye]

that's good news, but any chance she will re-strengthen before she gets to the coast?

There is always a chance to gain some strengh when it crosses the very warm waters however the inner core of the hurricane is not so good so it will take time to reorganise again but plenty of rain will go to Florida and as it moves slowly tons of rain will fall.

[weatherlover427]

Don't get to complacent. Look what Gaston did.

You mean Charley I suppose.

[Skywatch_NC]

Don't get to complacent. Look what Gaston did.

Amazing he really let LOOSE over VA after plodding through the Carolinas
...those scenes from Richmond and at least 8 killed!

Eric

[ilmc172pilot]

my niece is in VA, her house got flooded and shes a half mile from the creek......thankfully she had flood insuarnce and did not get hurt

[borderPatrol2329]

Frances may have a few tricks left in her bag yet. Look at the latest IR run. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-ir4-loop.html Notice not only the increased intensity, but how concentric the core area has become. It seems that perhaps Frances is getting a good feed of warm moisture laden air now. The anemic looking western periphery still seems to indicate the presence of shear coming from the WSW. The effects of the shear appear to be limited to the southwestern quadrant. Therefore, if Frances gains some forward momentum, she may outflank the shear and eaperience some significant re-intensification. The next recon will either verify this, or place my analysis in the conical filing cabinet.