18z GFDL for Ivan=Scary for the islands

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cycloneye
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18z GFDL for Ivan=Scary for the islands

#1 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:06 pm

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP UNCOUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM IVAN 09L

INITIAL TIME 18Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 9.0 33.2 255./17.1
6 9.2 34.6 278./13.6
12 9.6 36.1 284./15.7
18 9.5 37.8 264./16.3
24 10.0 39.3 288./15.7
30 9.8 40.6 262./13.4
36 10.7 42.5 296./20.2
42 10.6 44.5 267./19.4
48 10.7 45.8 275./13.0
54 11.2 47.4 287./17.1
60 11.4 49.3 277./18.2
66 11.5 50.9 272./15.9
72 11.9 52.7 281./17.5
78 12.0 54.4 275./17.6
84 12.0 56.0 272./14.8
90 12.6 57.4 291./15.0
96 13.0 59.0 284./16.1
102 13.4 60.2 291./12.2
108 14.2 61.5 301./15.5
114 15.1 62.9 304./16.2
120 16.0 64.3 302./16.1
126 16.9 65.7 302./15.4

Not good at all especially if it becomes a major cane.
Last edited by cycloneye on Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby JPmia » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:11 pm

Well Cycloneye...let's discuss your storm until Frances makes up her mind....is Ivan projected to hit PR?
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#3 Postby dhweather » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:13 pm

I think right now, Ivan is forecast to be south of PR, but that's past my 72 hour rule. :)
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#4 Postby guanaskip » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:16 pm

Let's get the ball rolling. I feel sorry for the poor guy (idiot?) who keps says NC for Frances. So I am saying not doubt in my mind NC for this.
All the models showit, they just dont know it.
How's that for pure rank speculation 2000 miles out.
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#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:17 pm

JPmia wrote:Well Cycloneye...let's discuss your storm until Frances makes up her mind....is Ivan projected to hit PR?


When I say scary for the islands I am talking about all the islands in the lesser antilles chain and yes includes Puerto Rico and the virgin islands.Too early to say if PR will be threatened directly.
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#6 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:17 pm

cycloneye
translate those numbers for me please?
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#7 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:20 pm

msbee wrote:cycloneye
translate those numbers for me please?


It will pass south of ST Marteen according to this model.But of course it is far away to say for sure however this one will not track as Frances did as a strong ridge will keep it from going fish.
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#8 Postby msbee » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:23 pm

thanks cycloneye
I know we are all guessing at this point.
what a season!
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#9 Postby Renata » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:39 pm

Most models are clustering across the islands of the southern Eastern Caribbean from Grenada north to about Guadeloupe
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#10 Postby Renata » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:47 pm

Guess Frances that since Frances is much more important at this time than Ivan that both floaters are focussed on the las from Africa.

Don't you just dislike it how this "Africans" come across and wreak havoc in our beautiful islands?
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#11 Postby Scott_inVA » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:49 pm

GFDL is extremely overcooked. Ivan won't be a C-4 in 72 hrs.

Scott
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#12 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:53 pm

The floater can't be put on Ivan until he gets around 35-40 W.
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#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:56 pm

Tommorow the floater will be moved to Ivan.
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#14 Postby BigO » Fri Sep 03, 2004 7:59 pm

I have the same gut feeling about Ivan that I had about Georges several years ago.

My first evacuation.
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#15 Postby AlabamaDave » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:00 pm

I predict landfall for Ivan between Florida City and Ft. Lauderdale, followed by entry into the GOM and a second strike up the Mouth of the Mississippi River and over New Orleans. Ivan will then recurve and emerge off the NC coast, where he will reintensify in the Gulf Stream and make a third landfall on Staten Island. :eek:
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#16 Postby BigO » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:02 pm

You make me feel soooooooo much better Dave.
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#17 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:03 pm

The 0z GFDL run has it just south of Puerto Rico at the end of the run moving NW. Very bad news if that happens. :eek:
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#18 Postby AlabamaDave » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:08 pm

Brent wrote:The 0z GFDL run has it just south of Puerto Rico at the end of the run moving NW. Very bad news if that happens. :eek:


Let's just hope this doesn't threaten Florida. In fact, Ivan can dissipate now for all I am concerned. Following Frances has been exhausting. We needed a brief respite before Ivan. Sheesh.

Remember a few years ago when we made it up to Roxanne or maybe even farther with the storms?? I wonder whether we will repeat that again this year!
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#19 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:09 pm

AlabamaDave wrote:
Brent wrote:The 0z GFDL run has it just south of Puerto Rico at the end of the run moving NW. Very bad news if that happens. :eek:


Let's just hope this doesn't threaten Florida. In fact, Ivan can dissipate now for all I am concerned. Following Frances has been exhausting. We needed a brief respite before Ivan. Sheesh.

Remember a few years ago when we made it up to Roxanne or maybe even farther with the storms?? I wonder whether we will repeat that again this year!


1995. Made it to Tanya. We actually BEAT the number of August 1995 storms this year(but they had more storms in June and July).
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#20 Postby hurricane_lover » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:11 pm

Enough with the personal attacks on myself.
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