Frances' weakening

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mascpa
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Frances' weakening

#1 Postby mascpa » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:20 pm

I don't recall seeing any predictions that showed Frances' weakening like she has. Which leads to two questions; 1) Why did it happen, what caused it? and 2) why didn't anyone see it coming? Thanks.
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#2 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:21 pm

Shear.

It actually was predicted by several models but the NHC discounted it.
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bwstg

#3 Postby bwstg » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:22 pm

Brent wrote:Shear.

It actually was predicted by several models but the NHC discounted it.


exacto mundo brent, as always on top of things...
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Rainband

#4 Postby Rainband » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:39 pm

Brent wrote:Shear.

It actually was predicted by several models but the NHC discounted it.
Thats bs the NHC predicted flucuations and after all it's weather. Sorry Like I said before, don't criticise the pros if you acn't do better :roll:
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#5 Postby Brent » Fri Sep 03, 2004 8:41 pm

Rainband wrote:
Brent wrote:Shear.

It actually was predicted by several models but the NHC discounted it.
Thats bs the NHC predicted flucuations and after all it's weather. Sorry Like I said before, don't criticise the pros if you acn't do better :roll:


I'm not criticizing the NHC. I discounted the shear as well. Intensity forecasts are just so dang hard to predict.
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