WOW!! NEW GFS

[jwcaneme]

baygirl--they're taking precautions due to expected rain. A very good idea. I wish we had here in Richmond.

[CFL]

I'm really shocked at this. I had convinced myself a few hours back that this was a done deal.

[Janie34]

Maybe the UKMET wasn't on crack after all.

[rockyman]

So now the Euro has jumped on this western solution...that makes 3 of the major models...I'm watching out my window as the tourists pour onto Dauphin Island...maybe I should tell them all to just go home now

[FritzPaul]

It's a holiday wknd, so there are probablly preparing now so that there will be a couple of less things to do over the holiday.

[baygirl_1]

jw-- I hope you're right. But... according to latest NHC track we'd be on the west side as it slid over East Alabama/West Georgia. That is the weaker side, so we shouldn't be getting that much rain. I am so confused--- but I'm not alone, from reading everything here, so that's something!
I guess we just keep a wary eye on her.

[Ixolib]

jw-- I hope you're right. But... according to latest NHC track we'd be on the west side as it slid over East Alabama/West Georgia. That is the weaker side, so we shouldn't be getting that much rain. I am so confused--- but I'm not alone, from reading everything here, so that's something!
I guess we just keep a wary eye on her.

Has any of this verified? Realizing she's done very strange things over the last day, is it strange to believe we could have a hit on the N. Central GOM? What are the pro's lataest opinions?

[wxman57]

I have no idea what you are looking at. The link to the GFS (AVN) on that page is to a run from last night, and it takes Frances inland into Florida then northward into eastern Alabama, as did the 12Z and 18Z runs. There is no model taking Frances into Mobile Bay.

[CFL]

Would there be anything left of Frances by the time she got up here except a lot of rainfall? Actually . . . that would be bad enough.

[Ixolib]

I have no idea what you are looking at. The link to the GFS (AVN) on that page is to a run from last night, and it takes Frances inland into Florida then northward into eastern Alabama, as did the 12Z and 18Z runs. There is no model taking Frances into Mobile Bay.

Thanks, WX...

[frederic79]

but not completely implausible given the fact that Frances hasn't moved much lately according to projections (specifically where it's supposed to be and WHEN it's supposted to be there) would be for Frances to meander towards the Florida southern coast (due west) and strengthen as shear abates. After landfall, due to low terrain and a slightly quicker movement, Frances enters the warm Gulf as a strong TS. It wouldn't take long for a slow (emphasis on slow) moving storm to rapidly deepen over the 87+ SST's (i.e. Charley) as it moves SLOWLY N or NW. This is not at all likely but still, all residents of the north central and eastern Gulf should still be on guard because of how fast things could change as steering currents remain weak.
-Ed

[Dean4Storms]

I made a post this morning about a further west turn and that GOM residents need to stay tuned. I pointed out that a weaker Frances could get steered more around the ridge now that she is weaker. Stay up to date!

[CFL]

Dean, do you think she would spend enough time over GOM to gain back any significant strength?

[Dean4Storms]

Dean, do you think she would spend enough time over GOM to gain back any significant strength?

I would'nt think anything too significant, maybe tops 75mph.

[Weddermang]

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/USLoca ... dnav=d2_12

This link has a forecast I pray is accurate. My experience with Intellicast has been very positive for the past several years.

[jes]

wxman
I think they are talking about this -http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200406_model.html