Is she getting her act together again?

[sea oat]

After looking at the water vapor and visual loops she seems to be pulling in tighter and more compact. Is that good or bad?

[chris_fit]

I agree

Think she got away from land a little bit and the center is completely over that warm water. Also, some convection is starting to wrap on the west side of the system.

[StrongWind]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Looks like the center is starting to blossom up again.

SW

[dennis1x1]

i say no....hasnt changed much in the last 12-24 hours.....still restricted to the west, still no eye wall reported.

pressures steady, winds down to 105 (liberal estimate as recon flight level winds support about 95-100)

[hurricane_lover]

chris,

Great point about her getting away from land and the center being over warmer water. That might be the reason why she has wekened so much the last 24 hours. Once she gets back over warm water, she might restrengthen.

Great observation.

[bwstg]

chris,

Great point about her getting away from land and the center being over warmer water. That might be the reason why she has wekened so much the last 24 hours. Once she gets back over warm water, she might restrengthen.

Great observation.

ah hurricane, I think thats what chris just said...

[Brent]

Who the heck knows?

It's times like these that I'm glad I'm NOT a professional met.

[dennis1x1]

the bahamas probably had little if any effect on a hurricane this size.....until the westerly shear lets up the warm water means little.

[chris_fit]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Check out that COD

Something is brewing again.

Waitin for the lates Vortex should tell us something.

[sea oat]

another nice look at her. i don't think the fat lady has sung yet. notoffense to anyone. just the old saying

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[sea oat]

she's not moving west either. wouldn't it be funny if she turned out to be a fish storm after all?

[Derek Ortt]

just a little late to be a fish

[tronbunny]

another nice look at her. i don't think the fat lady has sung yet. notoffense to anyone. just the old saying

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Any thoughts on that blob of dry air over SW FLa?
Looks to me like its going away and being fed some humidity, no longer a threat to Frances' core, and not be wrapped in, any longer.

Stewart, Stewart, Stewart....

[sea oat]

just a little late to be a fish

indeed sir. my apologies

[Guest]

She's dying.

[tallywx]

Hey all, just remember how Hugo weakened from a cat 4 to cat 2, only to re-strengthen in the 24 hours before landfall. See below:

29 16.60 -62.50 09/17/12Z 125 949 HURRICANE-4
30 16.90 -63.50 09/17/18Z 125 945 HURRICANE-4
31 17.20 -64.10 09/18/00Z 130 934 HURRICANE-4
32 17.70 -64.80 09/18/06Z 120 940 HURRICANE-4
33 18.20 -65.50 09/18/12Z 110 945 HURRICANE-3
34 19.10 -66.40 09/18/18Z 105 958 HURRICANE-3
35 19.70 -66.80 09/19/00Z 100 959 HURRICANE-3
36 20.70 -67.30 09/19/06Z 90 962 HURRICANE-2
37 21.60 -68.00 09/19/12Z 90 964 HURRICANE-2
38 22.60 -68.60 09/19/18Z 90 966 HURRICANE-2
39 23.50 -69.30 09/20/00Z 90 957 HURRICANE-2
40 24.40 -70.10 09/20/06Z 90 957 HURRICANE-2
41 25.20 -71.00 09/20/12Z 95 958 HURRICANE-2
42 26.30 -72.20 09/20/18Z 95 953 HURRICANE-2
43 27.20 -73.40 09/21/00Z 100 950 HURRICANE-3
44 28.00 -74.90 09/21/06Z 100 950 HURRICANE-3
45 29.00 -76.10 09/21/12Z 110 948 HURRICANE-3
46 30.20 -77.50 09/21/18Z 120 944 HURRICANE-4
47 31.70 -78.80 09/22/00Z 120 935 HURRICANE-4