What are the chances of re-intensification?

[slosh]

Looking at the Satellite loop, it sure looks like deep convection is building, yet the forecast indicates that Frances should continue to weaken. May we see an eye form again tonight?

Is it the wind shear the reason for the less circular appearance - especailly on her west side?

[Stephanie]

Is it the wind shear the reason for the less circular appearance - especailly on her west side?

Exactly. That and the dry air that was to her NW helped to weaken her. I don't think that the dry air is as much of a problem anymore, so that's why we maybe seeing some intensifcation of the eye (from the looks of it at any rate).

[Brent]

I don't know. This storm has been so fickle I'm afraid to say anything. Personally I don't expect much change(10 mph one way or the other), but if the bad conditions relax, she could easily rapidly intensify.

[slosh]

Can someone post a link that graphically shows the wind shear in this area? Thanks - Just trying to learn.

[STORMSURGE]

wouldn't it be difficult to strengthen now that she has been in the same area for so long turning the waters over and cooling them?

[slosh]

My guess is that the water there is pretty warm, any expert opinions on upwelling?

[slosh]

wow, I'm a tropical low.

[HurricaneGirl]

Can someone post a link that graphically shows the wind shear in this area? Thanks - Just trying to learn.

Here's a water vapor loop that shows the dry air.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float-wv-loop.html

[deguy50]

upwelling is only a cause for degradation of the hurricane if it occupies the same relative position for more than two days.
this is from larry cosgrove a met

[ColinD]

Looking at the Satellite loop, it sure looks like deep convection is building, yet the forecast indicates that Frances should continue to weaken. May we see an eye form again tonight?

Is it the wind shear the reason for the less circular appearance - especailly on her west side?

The 5pm forecast was to increase 5kts between 12 and 24 hours. According to the probability chart given by the NHC at 5am tomorrow morning the probabilities are given as

10% Category 4 or 5
50% category 3
25% category 2
15% category 1

[dennis1x1]

the dry air is subsidence because of the hurricane, it is present in every hurricane...it has nothing to do with the weakening......the weakening is caused by westerly winds that interere with the cloud structure.they could be dry, wet, or in between.....

dry air and shear are 2 completely different things......and the asymmetry is caused by the shear...dry air would wrap into the core...the CDO does not show this happening.

[sea oat]

woot! congrats slosh!

[PTPatrick]

Lest Wwe remember charley...he was cat 2, only 12 hours before landfall...Frances has at least 24. Things could still get interesting. NEVER underestimate these things.

[dennis1x1]

can you link that colind....ive never heard of that probability chart from the NHC.

thanks.

[STORMSURGE]

boy I bet it seems like its been 2 days for those in the Bahamas

[debbiet]

Great explaination Dennis...I remember seeing very DRY air wrap right into the eye of Hurricane Isabel just before landfall, which caused her dramatic weakening too. This just isn't happening with Frances...she's flat on the west side. Thanks for clearing it up for me.

[chakalakasp]

Can someone post a link that graphically shows the wind shear in this area? Thanks - Just trying to learn.

Ask and ye shall receive:

Miami:

[ColinD]

can you link that colind....ive never heard of that probability chart from the NHC.

thanks.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 32058T.gif

[dennis1x1]

thanks alot colin...bookmarked that.....i wasnt aware they produced that kind of product for hurricanes.

is it updated every 6 hours like the rest?

[Ziplock48]

Shallow water equals warm water. She has already thoroughly mixed the shallow water. If you can find an aireal view of the Islands, you will see large exspanses of very bright tourquoise water. These are shallow sand banks, from 4-20 or 25 feet deep. Upwelling is just not an issue. there isnt anything down there to well up. There are also lots of areas called "flats" which are extremely shallow, and very, very warm. These areas will appear a very pale tan tinged with blue in an ordinary color photograph. Outsid the Bahama Island grouping, the waters drop off on one side to 5,000 feet. Now that is some deep water.

There won't be a problem with upwelling when Frances moves over the Gulfstream. Thje current runs deep, and also fast. Freah, warm water will be flowing under her like a river, even if she is stalled.

Occaisionally, there are eddies in the Gulfstream current, and the western edge of the current somtimes runs from 3 miles offshore Miami to 10 miles offshore...the current moves around.

It is a distinct entity within the larger body of the Atlantic. It rushes through the space between south Florida and the Bahamas. Offshore Jacksonville, near the Fla Ga border, one has to run 40miles offshore to find the Gulf stream.

Hope this helps. Again...shallow water among the Bahama bank means that there is no resivoire of deep, colder water to come up due to mixing.
Zip