Slight strengthening forecast.
Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 41
Statement as of 03:00Z on September 04, 2004
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
the southwest Florida coast from Bonita Beach eastward to south of
Florida City. A Tropical Storm Warning reamins in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 11 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
Florida West Coast from north of Bonita Beach northward to the
Suwannee River.
Hurricane center located near 26.1n 77.8w at 04/0300z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 5 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 960 mb
eye diameter 40 nm
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 95ne 60se 45sw 75nw.
50 kt.......145ne 100se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt.......175ne 160se 120sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 26.1n 77.8w at 04/0300z
at 04/0000z center was located near 26.0n 77.6w
forecast valid 04/1200z 26.5n 78.6w
Max wind 90 kt...gusts 110 kt.
64 kt... 95ne 45se 45sw 75nw.
50 kt...145ne 100se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt...175ne 140se 120sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 05/0000z 27.0n 79.8w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 95ne 45se 45sw 75nw.
50 kt...145ne 100se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt...175ne 140se 120sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 05/1200z 27.6n 81.2w...inland
Max wind 55 kt...gusts 65 kt.
50 kt...145ne 100se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...175ne 140se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 06/0000z 28.7n 83.1w...over Gulf of Mexico
Max wind 35 kt...gusts 45 kt.
34 kt... 60ne 60se 60sw 60nw.
Forecast valid 07/0000z 31.9n 86.2w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 08/0000z 35.0n 87.0w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Outlook valid 09/0000z 40.0n 84.5w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 30 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.1n 77.8w
next advisory at 04/0900z
forecaster Stewart
11pm Frances-105 mph winds, 960 mb pressure
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Brent
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Greg wrote:OK, 2 questions. How do you get the report so early and why isn't it all in caps like the public release?
Weather Underground. First place to have the info.
Marine also comes out first.
Last edited by Brent on Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#neversummer
Lower wind estimates...
No intensification.
Slightly south track.
Orlando gets a less-than Charley wind forecast.
As a Central Floridian, I am now concerned about water.
Never been overly worried about flood insurance, no recorded flood history data for my locale.
The boarding up feels a bit of wasted effort in the Orlando/Daytona area.
Maybe no loss of power?
A lot of people in Orlando breathing sigh of relief, but only about winds.
No intensification.
Slightly south track.
Orlando gets a less-than Charley wind forecast.
As a Central Floridian, I am now concerned about water.
Never been overly worried about flood insurance, no recorded flood history data for my locale.
The boarding up feels a bit of wasted effort in the Orlando/Daytona area.
Maybe no loss of power?
A lot of people in Orlando breathing sigh of relief, but only about winds.
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Brent
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Canelaw99 wrote:Interesting that they put the TS warning all the way south to FL City....does that mean that they're thinking it might go a little south of their projected path, or are they just being extremely cautious????
I don't know. They have a second landfall in the Apalachicola area as a Weak Tropical Storm BTW.
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#neversummer
Us 
Frances
I hate to see her strengthen, but I can't say I didn't expect it to an extent.
Frances
I hate to see her strengthen, but I can't say I didn't expect it to an extent.
Last edited by NateFLA on Fri Sep 03, 2004 9:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Brent
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Canelaw, the wind field expanded.
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 41
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004
...Frances slowly approaching Grand Bahama Island...
...High winds and heavy rainfall continue to Rake the
northwestern Bahamas...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
the southwest Florida coast from Bonita Beach eastward to south of
Florida City. A Tropical Storm Warning reamins in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 11 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
Florida West Coast from north of Bonita Beach northward to the
Suwannee River.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 26.1 north...longitude 77.8 west or about 70 miles
...110 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. This is
also about 150 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach Florida.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
... 9 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and
some erratic motion can be expected. On the forecast track...the
large core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move slowly over
the northwestern Bahamas overnight...and will be very near the
Florida East Coast by late Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Frances a strong category two hurricane. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 110 miles...175 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km. A sustained wind of 81 mph was recently
reported on north Eleuthera island. During the past hour...ham
radio operators at Hopetown on abaco island reported wind sustained
winds of 69 mph with gusts to 81 mph at Hopetown. The Settlement
point C-man station on western Grand Bahama Island recently
reported a sustained wind of 59 mph with a gust to 75 mph...while a
sustained wind of 44 mph with a gust to 52 mph were reported at the
Lake Worth Florida C-man station.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches. A
ship in Marsh Harbor recently reported a pressure of 960 mb.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye
of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on
the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm
surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Storm
surge flooding of 5 feet above normal lake water level is expected
in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida coast...storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide level can be expected.
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances over the Bahamas.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...26.1 N... 77.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 41
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2004
...Frances slowly approaching Grand Bahama Island...
...High winds and heavy rainfall continue to Rake the
northwestern Bahamas...
a Hurricane Warning is in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas.
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
within the warning area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect from
north of Flagler Beach northward to Fernandina Beach.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for
the southwest Florida coast from Bonita Beach eastward to south of
Florida City. A Tropical Storm Warning reamins in effect for the
middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City southward
to the Seven Mile Bridge...including Florida Bay.
At 11 PM EDT...a tropical storm watch has been issued for the
Florida West Coast from north of Bonita Beach northward to the
Suwannee River.
At 11 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
near latitude 26.1 north...longitude 77.8 west or about 70 miles
...110 km...east-southeast of Freeport Grand Bahama Island. This is
also about 150 miles east-southeast of West Palm Beach Florida.
Frances is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph
... 9 km/hr...and this general motion is expected to continue for
the next 24 hours. However...steering currents remain weak and
some erratic motion can be expected. On the forecast track...the
large core of Hurricane Frances will continue to move slowly over
the northwestern Bahamas overnight...and will be very near the
Florida East Coast by late Saturday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts. This makes Frances a strong category two hurricane. Some
fluctuations in intensity are possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 110 miles...175 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 200 miles...325 km. A sustained wind of 81 mph was recently
reported on north Eleuthera island. During the past hour...ham
radio operators at Hopetown on abaco island reported wind sustained
winds of 69 mph with gusts to 81 mph at Hopetown. The Settlement
point C-man station on western Grand Bahama Island recently
reported a sustained wind of 59 mph with a gust to 75 mph...while a
sustained wind of 44 mph with a gust to 52 mph were reported at the
Lake Worth Florida C-man station.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches. A
ship in Marsh Harbor recently reported a pressure of 960 mb.
Storm surge flooding of 5 to 12 feet above normal tide levels...
along with dangerous battering waves...can be expected near the eye
of Frances on the north side of Grand Bahama Island. Storm surge
flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be expected on
the west side of the other islands of the Bahamas. Coastal storm
surge flooding of 4 to 5 feet above normal tide levels...along with
large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to
the north of where the center makes landfall in Florida. Storm
surge flooding of 5 feet above normal lake water level is expected
in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida coast...storm surge
flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide level can be expected.
Rainfall amounts of 7 to 12 inches...locally as high as 20 inches...
are possible in association with Frances over the Bahamas.
Swells generated by Frances will be affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 11 PM EDT position...26.1 N... 77.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 6 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 am EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 am EDT.
Forecaster Stewart
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#neversummer
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