Climatology Is Alive And Well

[tropicstorm]

Frances was going to make history as the first major landfalling hurricane on the east central Florida coast since 1899. Many days ago, I thought Frances would most likely take the historical curvature hard to the NW - probably South Carolina. But I became really fascinated by the very unusual prospects of this hurricane making some kind of history to strike the central Florida coastline as a major. Really kind of bought into it. Well, once again, it's not going to happen. No major on the Florida coast this time. The 105 year lull is still intact. Major hurricanes just don't landfall in east central Florida - climatology says they don't.

[Indystorm]

If we could figure out from a scientific perspective why your climatological observation is true for this part of Florida maybe we would be able to refine our forecasts. Is it merely randomness, or steering currents, or geography or something else?

[dhweather]

The trend is always for the subtropical high
to end somewhere just east of Florida.

There's a magical spot in NE florida and GA
that just seems to be protected by the typical tropical patterns.

[mf_dolphin]

Frances was going to make history as the first major landfalling hurricane on the east central Florida coast since 1899. Many days ago, I thought Frances would most likely take the historical curvature hard to the NW - probably South Carolina. But I became really fascinated by the very unusual prospects of this hurricane making some kind of history to strike the central Florida coastline as a major. Really kind of bought into it. Well, once again, it's not going to happen. No major on the Florida coast this time. The 105 year lull is still intact. Major hurricanes just don't landfall in east central Florida - climatology says they don't.

I'll have a helping of crow ready if Francis rebuilds. This story isn't over....

[bahamaswx]

Andrew.

[janieb]

Well, once again, it's not going to happen. No major on the Florida coast this time. The 105 year lull is still intact. Major hurricanes just don't landfall in east central Florida - climatology says they don't.

Could there possibly be a connection with this and the Bermuda Triangle?
Just a thought.

[tropicstorm]

To mf_dolphin

With all due respect as an administrator on this board, the helping of crow you speak of might be self serving. My clear point was that the 105 year record of no major landfallers on the east central Florida coast will stand. How do you figure otherwise? With a new NHC projected landfall just north of West Palm Beach? This is not east central Florida. How about a track more to the right of the new models to possibly reach east central Florida? Well, now you have problems with SW wind shear and dry air undercutting the western side & disrupting reorganization - weakening has been persistent for 18 hours. The GFS/GFDL doesn't weaken shear for another 18-24 hours. Anyway, this hurricane is projected to be a Cat 1-2 at some landfall south of an east central Florida coastline - an interesting storm to say the least, but no major to eclipse the 1899 mark. Let's have another discussion later to divvy up the crow.

[mf_dolphin]

To mf_dolphin

With all due respect as an administrator on this board, the helping of crow you speak of might be self serving. My clear point was that the 105 year record of no major landfallers on the east central Florida coast will stand. How do you figure otherwise? With a new NHC projected landfall just north of West Palm Beach? This is not east central Florida. How about a track more to the right of the new models to possibly reach east central Florida? Well, now you have problems with SW wind shear and dry air undercutting the western side & disrupting reorganization - weakening has been persistent for 18 hours. The GFS/GFDL doesn't weaken shear for another 18-24 hours. Anyway, this hurricane is projected to be a Cat 1-2 at some landfall south of an east central Florida coastline - an interesting storm to say the least, but no major to eclipse the 1899 mark. Let's have another discussion later to divvy up the crow.

And you don't count West Palm Beach as East Central Florida? No one should write off Frances until she is ashore. I don't see much movement out of her yet and people better not let their guard down. We'll see what happens in the next 24 hours. If she doesn't regenerate then that's great! It won't be the first helping of crow I've eaten in 30 years of watching the tropics

[wlfpack81]

Andrew.

That was a se FL storm. FOr the record while areas like Jville, and other parts of cent FL don't often get landfalling 'Canes you have to remember that overall FL is still a magnet for these storms like NC/SC. Just that on avg southern FL and the panhandle get hit the most but still for those who say FL rarely gets hurricanes, you're still wrong. Since 1900 31% of all landfalling hurricanes have hit FL (NC 2nd with 24%).

[bahamaswx]

Sorry. Read east Florida.