This is why south fla, is not getting many squal lines...

[ericinmia]

Here is the latest wind shear chart... notice the shear transversing from the tampa area down through south-east fla. This is pushing the majority of the storms over the ocean, keeping them just offshore.

The second image below is the expected change in shear currents. If you look at the same south fla area... The shear is supposed to drop greatly over the next 24 hours. This should have implications on how far the storms begin to track across the peninsula.





-Eric

[ROCK]

great post....thanks

[MWatkins]

Good post...hope this is wrong of course...this could allow for a little more strengthening during the afternoon tomorrow.

MW

[wlfpack81]

Yea those shear maps are handy. Few days ago they showed the shear tendancy just e of FL increasing so I guess I shouldn't be too surprised at some of the weakening that is going on now. It is a good thing to watch those tendacy maps as they'll be able to help with telling hwo the storm may increase/decrease in strength in the future.

[ericinmia]

Thanks.

This is bad news as it continues crawling wnw. I think given less shear, we could see the eye begin to emerge tomorrow, followed by quick and steady strengthening upto landfall.

Here is the link to the other thread with the water heat potential graphic:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41450

-Eric

[ericinmia]

A newer image has loaded since i originally posted...

The new image shows the even stronger shear... even farther east. This is the main reason for multiple things. Why Frances is lopsided, why she hasn't intensified, and why south fla hasn't recieved very many storm bands.

Had the original outlook of the shape of Frances actually played out, and this shear not present... south fla would have been battered by 30-60 mph sustained winds all afternoon, evening, and now this early morning.

We really lucked out.
My personal weather station in extreme northern dade has recorded only about a quarter of an inch of rain, and sustained average winds of 15-20mph, with a high gust of 28. At times we recieved rain storms that were dropping over 2 inches and hour, however they were such quick moving, and so few that the totals never accumulated.

-Eric

[ericinmia]

It appears now that the Upper Level Shear has begun to weaken, and move southward!
Watch this progression...











-Eric

[NateFLA]

I've been calling this based on radar hours ago

Seems like the storm is working its way up. First there were squall lines developing (feeder bands).

Now, more toward the center, things are growing for the first time, not shriking. Looks like she could gain some ummph.

[yankeelmbb]

so....you think she'll stregnthen? By brain hurts to bad to figure out those maps..sorry

[ericinmia]

She has already started to re-organize....

With less north-easterly shear....

She has been re-organizing.
She should Strengthen.
She should also head more westerly.
-Eric

[Kiern]

Man this is nuts.

[yankeelmbb]

your guess as to winds at landfall?

[ericinmia]

I don't see her getting much above a cat3...
The farther north (in FL) she landfalls, the weaker she'll be.
The waters around miami/lauderdale are warmer than those around palm beach.

The storm is visibly becoming much more organized on radar and sat.

soo.. cat3, mabye.. mabye.. weak cat4

It all depends on landfall location and speed now. Since the shear is subsiding, the longer she sits out there the better organized she will become!
-Eric

[wsquared77]

I'm sure this is a really stupid question but are we ever going to start seeing any of the weather here in Miami-Dade? (I'm in Kendall.) It seems like the bands come through up north but never really reach us.