Putting to rest.... Frances in waters supportive of CAT 5!

[ericinmia]

I have been preoccupied throughout the day, but have read many posts tonight regarding whether or not frances was weakening due to the waters cooling... etc. etc.

Here is proof that as of this afternoon FRI... the waters surrounding frances are capable of two things...

1. Supporting a storm of around 900mb.
2. Supporting a storm of CAT 5 strength.

With the decreasing shear i showed in this thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41445

We should see Frances begin to strengthen as early as the 11am tomorrow morning.



-Eric

[NateFLA]

Something about that is terrifying.

[hurricane_lover]

Whoa! :eek

[NateFLA]

Note also: look where Ivan is, look @ water temps !

And moving into cat 3 waters is still scary... garsh!

[btangy]

Hurricanes rarely each their "potential intensity," so it doesn't necessarily mean once the shear relaxes (if it does at all), we'll see Frances going to Cat 4 status. Those maps do give a good indication of the environment (minus shear) that the hurricane is in, i.e. instability and SSTs.

[ericinmia]

^ true, i did not mean to imply that would be the case. Thus why i said "capable" not that they would!

However i am trying to help people better undertand the thermo-dynamics behind hurricane strengthening, and weakening.
There have been too many posts be people that are basing claims on what frances can do based on hunches and guesses, not on empirical data.

-Eric

[ROCK]

^ true, i did not mean to imply that would be the case. Thus why i said "capable" not that they would!

However i am trying to help people better undertand the thermo-dynamics behind hurricane strengthening, and weakening.
There have been too many posts be people that are basing claims on what frances can do based on hunches and guesses, not on impircal data.

-Eric

good post and I agree.....empirical date btw.....

[ericinmia]

good post and I agree.....empirical date btw.....

lol, thanks!

Sorry its been a long week, i am sure you all know, and agree...

... I need sleep, damn little pebbles from the construction site next door occasionally slam into the shutters on my room window... sleep is not coming easy.
_Eric

[btangy]

Also, note that Ivan will be moving through an area of very high "potential intensities." Potential intensity is very useful in low shear environments, so watch out... Ivan could strengthen much more than indicated.

[dennis1x1]

youre leaving out important pieces to the puzzle....namely..that Frances is not in the condition to rapidly strengthen.....no inner core, spread out windfield, etc etc...

so its more than shear at this point...


there are times when a storm is primed for rapid intensification, times when storms can use the warm waters of the gulf stream......

time is running out on this one however, and its probably too late.

[ericinmia]

youre leaving out important pieces to the puzzle....namely..that Frances is not in the condition to rapidly strengthen.....no inner core, spread out windfield, etc etc...

so its more than shear at this point...


there are times when a storm is primed for rapid intensification, times when storms can use the warm waters of the gulf stream......

time is running out on this one however, and its probably too late.

Check my other thread... the shear is supposed to minimize or degrade completely by tomorrow afternoon:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41445
-Eric

[weatherlover427]

Do you think that it will still be moving at ~4-6 MPH tomorrow? If so then; with it still being about 200mi offshore the FL coast; it could really blow up if this holds true (the shear lessening that is).