Frances Being Stationery Has Helped

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Sean in New Orleans
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1794
Joined: Thu Aug 28, 2003 7:26 pm
Location: New Orleans, LA 30.0N 90.0W
Contact:
Contact Sean in New Orleans

Frances Being Stationery Has Helped

#1 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:09 am

It's a good thing that Frances has been stationery for the last day..it has helped the storm to weaken as the system has churned deep cooler waters to the surface which is weakening the system before our eyes. This is a real blessing to see this storm weaken. Frances could strengthen, though, just before reaching West Central Florida when the system moves over warmer waters...
0 likes   
Top
ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

#2 Postby ericinmia » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:14 am

refer to...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41450
-Eric
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#3 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:21 am

Bahamas -- Baja Mar -- Shallow Seas.

No "deep cooler" water to upwell.

Image
Last edited by bahamaswx on Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:25 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
ROCK
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9492
Age: 54
Joined: Tue Aug 17, 2004 7:30 am
Location: Kemah, Texas

Re: Frances Being Stationery Has Helped

#4 Postby ROCK » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:21 am

Sean in New Orleans wrote:It's a good thing that Frances has been stationery for the last day..it has helped the storm to weaken as the system has churned deep cooler waters to the surface which is weakening the system before our eyes. This is a real blessing to see this storm weaken. Frances could strengthen, though, just before reaching West Central Florida when the system moves over warmer waters...



you may be right but an earlier post stated the upwelling is not an issue here. If I remember right it would have to sit in one place for 48 hours. But what do I know Im a new guy here..lol...
0 likes   
Top
frankthetank
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 527
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: La Crosse, WI

#5 Postby frankthetank » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:31 am

heres an overlay from this afternoon

Image

high res http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/gall ... 4.250m.jpg
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
opera ghost
Category 4
Category 4
Posts: 909
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2003 4:40 pm
Location: Houston, Texas

#6 Postby opera ghost » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:40 am

So, essentially, she's going over very shallow waters and *that* could be part of the problem?

Completly OT but my curriosity demands- how shallow ARE those waters... they look very very shallow.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
btangy
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 758
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 11:06 pm
Location: Boulder, CO
Contact:
Contact btangy

#7 Postby btangy » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:52 am

Here's a link to the bathymetry.

http://walrus.wr.usgs.gov/infobank/gaze ... y/bhs.html

They are shallow indeed. More important than bathymetry is the depth of the mixed layer of the ocean because that controls how much heat the upper ocean contains and how quickly mixing/upwelling cools the SSTs. I don't believe the shallowness of the water around the Bahamas are the problem. The main problem is still with the upper atmospheric winds and perhaps some dry air intrusion around 500mb.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#8 Postby bahamaswx » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:55 am

Certainly. The Bahamas did not weaken Frances, and I wouldn't blame dry air very much either. Shear was the major contributer.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 88 guests