Will Hurricane Frances strengthen?

ColdFront77 · #1 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:33 am

Comments welcomed...

Anonymous · #2 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:38 am

I'm not sure it'll strengthen. I think because of the dry air entrainment and the shear, it'll stay about the same. It could even weaken to 95 mph sustained winds by landfall. However, while the weakening is excellent news for Florida, the slow forward movement means a prolonged period of beach erosion and potentially horrific flooding from torrential rains.

c5Camille · #3 Postby **c5Camille** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:40 am

cold front... your opinion?

#4 Postby **btangy** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:41 am

Shear does weaken right before Frances makes landfall. With the warm waters of the Gulf Stream, Frances should make a comeback, but I think it will be too late for it to strengthen back to more than a weak Cat 3.

opera ghost · #5 Postby **opera ghost** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:41 am

May stregenthen a bit- I'm no longer expecting to see a Cat5 out of this- and probably not a Cat4 either. I think Cat 3 is about as strong as it'll spin up- and that's a maybe.

SouthernWx · #6 Postby **SouthernWx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 12:59 am

I'm expecting a borderline cat-3/4 at landfall tomorrow evening....115-120 kts and central pressure in the 940-948 mb range.

One thing to remember....this is an area that hasn't experienced even a "weak" (115 mb) cat-3 hurricane since 1950 or earlier...over half century ago. The last major hurricane to make a direct hit on Palm Beach and Martin county occurred in 1949....the last major landfalling hurricane in St Lucie and Indian River county occurred in 1928....the last one to impact Broward county occurred in October 1950. For Brevard county, there hasn't been a direct hit by a major hurricane in at least 124 years (an August 1880 hurricane was "borderline" cat-2/3 in the Vero Beach to Cocoa Beach area).

ColdFront77 · #7 Postby **ColdFront77** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:00 am

I am between Frances strengthening a bit and a lot, leaning more toward a lot.

There is a lot of warm water between the Bahamas and Florida and the upper level wind shear is currently expected to decrease. The dry air entrainment isn't excessive, so can technically not be too much of a problem in the coming hours as the storm moves slowly toward the Florida east coast.

Prior to posting this poll I was thinking of the choices being, "Strengthening", "Remain the same", "Continued weakening"
and "Not sure." -- then it came out that way. Oh well.

Sean in New Orleans · #8 Postby **Sean in New Orleans** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:01 am

A little--We've definitely already witnessed Frances' most powerful days, IMO.

Anonymous · #9 Postby **Anonymous** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:04 am

I want to say just a little, but Coldfront brings up a good point. The gulfstream has rapidly intensified two systems already, and if the shear decreases than Frances would have no problem intensifying. Its size also scares me.

hurricane_lover · #10 Postby **hurricane_lover** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:17 am

word to the herbs, kid.

HurricaneBill · #11 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:30 am

I think Frances went into rehab for ERC addiction and has been going through withdrawal symptoms.

bahamaswx · #12 Postby **bahamaswx** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:32 am

I voted a lot... less than 950mb at landfall.

lilbump3000 · #13 Postby **lilbump3000** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:27 pm

I say she will strengthen a little maybe to 115, 120 at best. If she tries to pull a charley then i would say probably as high as 135mph.

btsgmdad · #14 Postby **btsgmdad** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:28 pm

Given the latest NHC data, 115-120 at landfall.