Interesting look into the AVN model ensemble....

[ericinmia]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/com ... 12/M8.html

IF you look at tracks for AVNN1 through AVNN5....

Where the blue dots are on the maps, the model did not accurately forcast that part of the track...

AVNN3 and AVNN4 both pull frances a little wnw with a landfall just north, or in north west palm beach county. Followed by a westward track across Fla.

AVNN5 interesting pulls Frances directly west across what appears to be broward county.

AVNN1 and AVNN2 both curve northward rather rapidly, and this does not appear to be a plausible solution.

I am thinking that for this model the north-ward jog is being give to much emphasis in the consensus that is released. I am starting to believe (not just from this model) that the storm will continue a little wnw but around or by the 11am advisory she should be moving about 6-12mph just north of west... hitting the upper west palm area. This of course could shift further south if the wnw track does not persist so long, and the west course occurs sooner.

The shear to the west of the storm and the pocket that the storm has pushed itself into (within the high) has caused it to stall out. Now depending on how the high to its southwest, and west errodes the storm will either pick up speed, and begin its more westward track, or a bad scenario....

The storm could simply keep drifting toward florida, and with the shear on the western quadrants of the storm decreasing the storm bands should begin to travel deeper across south and central florida while the storm begins to organize and increase in strength.

Either way, south-central fla. seems to be in for a long few days.
-Eric

[ericinmia]

Here is a pic of AVNN4:


Here is a pic of AVNN5:


-Eric

[ericinmia]

Here is the most likely track "short term, pre gulf":

-Eric

[cape_escape]

Well, that could explaine the advisorys over here in the Ft Myers area.

[MWatkins]

Note: Not much difference in the evoultion of Ivan.

MW

[c5Camille]

looks like her track right now is ship wreck hunting
in the bahamas... she may still be there tomorrow
afternoon... once these storms stall like this... and
with no trough forcast soon... she could go anywhere

[ericinmia]

Note: Not much difference in the evoultion of Ivan.

MW

Very true... I am thinking that Ivan is going to take a similar course to Frances; however more to the south. This would put the upper lesser antilles, puerto rico, and possibly hispanola in the line of fire in the coming few days.

It is defintely something to be concered with, and watch. It has a good potential to be even more of south fla. problem than frances was/is. However a couple factors still are unsure, and Ivan could possibly resemble more of a Floyd track.
-Eric