Frances Trying To Close OFF!

[caneman]

YOu can see on the latest image where the NW and Western sides of the cewnter of cirulation now have have convection. If the SW side closes off look for more strengthening. Frances problably has another 12 hours to gain any further strength over the very warm Gul stream. This is not good. It looks as if shear as completley abated.

[NateFLA]

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=41494

[inotherwords]

I guess everybody has a different opinion about what's going on. Two of our local mets are saying as of five minutes ago that the dry air from the Gulf and the shear will continue to interfere with her strengthening. That there's a chance she could grow again over the gulf stream but that the dry air and shear may not allow that to happen as efficiently.

I don't think anybody knows for sure with this crazy storm.

[ColinD]

According to Max Mayfield, Frances doesn't have the proper structure to make much intensification likely. The windfield is too spread out. There's been more than 24 hours of threads started noting deepening convection and a building western side of the storm but the pressure havn't gone anywhere but up. She still looks quite sheered on the infrared.

Have to admit though that the last infrared looks like an eye suddenly appearing.

[caneman]

According to Max Mayfield, Frances doesn't have the proper structure to make much intensification likely. The windfield is too spread out. There's been more than 24 hours of threads started noting deepening convection and a building western side of the storm but the pressure havn't gone anywhere but up. She still looks quite sheered on the infrared.

Have to admit though that the last infrared looks like an eye suddenly appearing.

It is very apparant the Frances is trying to close off again - if not almost there already. She still has another 12 to 18 hours over water. I expect intensification.

[NateFLA]

According to Max Mayfield, Frances doesn't have the proper structure to make much intensification likely. The windfield is too spread out. There's been more than 24 hours of threads started noting deepening convection and a building western side of the storm but the pressure havn't gone anywhere but up. She still looks quite sheered on the infrared.

Have to admit though that the last infrared looks like an eye suddenly appearing.

I always feel like Mets underestimate potential for intesification. Look at Charley... didn't hear many mets calling for a strong cat 4!

[caneman]

According to Max Mayfield, Frances doesn't have the proper structure to make much intensification likely. The windfield is too spread out. There's been more than 24 hours of threads started noting deepening convection and a building western side of the storm but the pressure havn't gone anywhere but up. She still looks quite sheered on the infrared.

Have to admit though that the last infrared looks like an eye suddenly appearing.

Take a look at the latest NASA Visible it is obvious!

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html
I always feel like Mets underestimate potential for intesification. Look at Charley... didn't hear many mets calling for a strong cat 4!

[B-Bear]

[img]

Well looky here. Man is she really trying to form an eye.[/img]

[NateFLA]

Frances has tightened considerably in the last 4 radar frames, which makes roughly 20 mins....
It could be.

[Air Force Met]

It will also tighten up as it approaches the coast.

[bwstg]

It will also tighten up as it approaches the coast.

AFM, does that mean stronger winds and mroe devastation? Your opinons are always good and informative that is why I like asking you..

[NateFLA]

Compositie Reflectivity 248 and Base Reflecitivity 248 are both showing Frances tightening the 'eye' up for the past 35 mins or so, and it doesn't look like it is stopping...

The CR 248 loop is very convincing.

[flnative]

Air Force Met, what is your take on strengthening? Thanks.

[Innotech]

the storm is going to strengthen as outflow improves and convection moves over hte gulf stream. Im expecting a possible cat 3 major hurricane at landfall, close to 120 mph winds at this rate of improvement.

[Air Force Met]

Air Force Met, what is your take on strengthening? Thanks.

I think it will strengthen slightly. If it stays off shore and the shear lightens enough...it will go back up to cat 3. I don't see a 4...the core is still so disrupted and the shear is still too strong. 120 is not out of the question.

Best case scenario is that it will stay the strength it is.

[NateFLA]

Eye eye eye!

AFM, please loot at KAMX BR 248 and CR 248... I think you'll see what we are all seeing in chat. She is tightening it alot in the past 45 mins... more than she has in the past 5 hours!

[Innotech]

its very obvious on radar and increasingly apparent on satellite that an eye is fully formed under the cloud layers.