What Did Frances Just Do?
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What Did Frances Just Do?
Okay, please pardon the newbie nature of this post. I really, really don't want to get into the wobble debate... but - I am looking at this latest track on TWC (I know, I'm sorry), and it appears that Frances just suddenly went almost straight North in the last few hours? Am I imagining that? Is it just another one of those oh-so-frequent wobbles? Or could this be something more significant? I have a friend who lives just above the FL/GA border - she's got friends staying with her from Florida - and they both just called my butt at 5AM after seeing that little jump to the North!
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So I should just ignore that little line that they draw showing the "track" that just showed it go "bounce" to the North basically? Really, I'm just trying to learn what I should or should not be paying attention to. I am not educated enough on weather to really understand the radar or the vapor images, etc. so well - so I tend to follow where that little line they show me goes. I guess that's bad yeah? 
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AlexiBlue wrote:So I should just ignore that little line that they draw showing the "track" that just showed it go "bounce" to the North basically? Really, I'm just trying to learn what I should or should not be paying attention to. I am not educated enough on weather to really understand the radar or the vapor images, etc. so well - so I tend to follow where that little line they show me goes. I guess that's bad yeah?
This map has pretty good resolution.
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html
The Blue track already happened. Black is forecasted.
You can also watch the radar.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar/loop/DS. ... kamx.shtml
The black area in the middle of the bands of rotating rain is the center of the circulation.
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Frances is moving so slow that low lying areas prone to flooding should be watching the system. Regardless of where the center makes landfall we will see large accumulations over a wide area particularly in the northeast quadrant.
Last edited by Nimbus on Sat Sep 04, 2004 5:21 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Hmmm, okay, I've now come across several reports from local mets coming out of Florida who seem to be thinking that this thing may actually really, believe it or not, strengthen and turn northwards. One reported here that I also saw elsewhere said "shoot straight up I-95". Is there anything to this people?
Extreme Northern Florida and South Georgia are chock full of people who evacuated from Florida - some of them are my friends. Should they be on the lookout to jump back into the cars post-haste or is all this North stuff really silliness still like everyone has been saying for the past week?
Extreme Northern Florida and South Georgia are chock full of people who evacuated from Florida - some of them are my friends. Should they be on the lookout to jump back into the cars post-haste or is all this North stuff really silliness still like everyone has been saying for the past week?
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AlexiBlue wrote:Hmmm, okay, I've now come across several reports from local mets coming out of Florida who seem to be thinking that this thing may actually really, believe it or not, strengthen and turn northwards. One reported here that I also saw elsewhere said "shoot straight up I-95". Is there anything to this people?
Extreme Northern Florida and South Georgia are chock full of people who evacuated from Florida - some of them are my friends. Should they be on the lookout to jump back into the cars post-haste or is all this North stuff really silliness still like everyone has been saying for the past week?
Radars:
http://www.wxnation.com/westpalmbeach/
http://www.wxnation.com/miami/
Not likely to strengthen much. Some positive factors in that regard (ocean temps) but it doesn't have a structure that makes it too likely.
Track expected to bend West, not North.
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Thanks ColinD. The local radars are great. However, I wanted to ask you about the track map you mentioned earlier at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html
That track now also shows that swing more northward. It shows that this thing is going to have to make a sharper and sharper left turn to go inland in central Florida. What is going to make it do that? If it followed the track of the last three dots, it would end up in extreme Northern Florida or Southern Georgia.
Can someone explain to me (a complete weather idiot), what force will turn it left and why it won't continue that more NW track?
That track now also shows that swing more northward. It shows that this thing is going to have to make a sharper and sharper left turn to go inland in central Florida. What is going to make it do that? If it followed the track of the last three dots, it would end up in extreme Northern Florida or Southern Georgia.
Can someone explain to me (a complete weather idiot), what force will turn it left and why it won't continue that more NW track?
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tampastorm
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AlexiBlue wrote:Thanks ColinD. The local radars are great. However, I wanted to ask you about the track map you mentioned earlier at http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... _full.html
That track now also shows that swing more northward. It shows that this thing is going to have to make a sharper and sharper left turn to go inland in central Florida. What is going to make it do that? If it followed the track of the last three dots, it would end up in extreme Northern Florida or Southern Georgia.
Can someone explain to me (a complete weather idiot), what force will turn it left and why it won't continue that more NW track?
It went a little more NW for a while almost exactly as forecast. There's high pressure to the North of Frances that should block her from going North and effectively push her west.
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I know what you mean nomolos. I have been reading over the past week it's going to go west..."now"....no...."now"....no..."now"
It's driving me crazy. Not for myself, I think it is about as likely as winning the lottery to have it come all the way up here to Charleston. But I do worry about my friends in South Georgia and Northern Florida.
It continues to stay off the Florida coast, while slowly, slowly inching northwards. And what I really don't think has been clearly established yet is how far North this thing is going to inch before it finally makes that left west turn.
It's driving me crazy. Not for myself, I think it is about as likely as winning the lottery to have it come all the way up here to Charleston. But I do worry about my friends in South Georgia and Northern Florida.
It continues to stay off the Florida coast, while slowly, slowly inching northwards. And what I really don't think has been clearly established yet is how far North this thing is going to inch before it finally makes that left west turn.
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tampastorm
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It's not that I don't see that or believe you tampastorm. But I've seen and heard the same thing over and over again in the past few days. It takes that tiny move to the west, but never quite turns that way.
It's not that I don't think it won't HIT around where they say - it's probably way too close not to! What I'm worried about here is that it may start to scrape up the coast in that horrible slow motion, rather than crossing. That kind of extreme rain and wind fields lingering and moving slowly up the east coast or interior of Florida could have major affect on Northern Florida/South Georgia.
After all, Gaston was only a tropical storm - and the wind here from that put trees into houses and tore up the place pretty good. It did even worse in Virginia! And Bonnie did some fun things too way after it was little more than thunderstorms.
So what I am worried about primarily is this thing's potential to come more north than currently tracked and dump big rain and some TS strength winds on south Georgia and Northern Florida that people perhaps are not expecting because they think it is going to do that 'big west turn' and go more GOM.
It's not that I don't think it won't HIT around where they say - it's probably way too close not to! What I'm worried about here is that it may start to scrape up the coast in that horrible slow motion, rather than crossing. That kind of extreme rain and wind fields lingering and moving slowly up the east coast or interior of Florida could have major affect on Northern Florida/South Georgia.
After all, Gaston was only a tropical storm - and the wind here from that put trees into houses and tore up the place pretty good. It did even worse in Virginia! And Bonnie did some fun things too way after it was little more than thunderstorms.
So what I am worried about primarily is this thing's potential to come more north than currently tracked and dump big rain and some TS strength winds on south Georgia and Northern Florida that people perhaps are not expecting because they think it is going to do that 'big west turn' and go more GOM.
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tampastorm
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nomolos wrote:i see a trend here...for the longest time we've heard that Frances is going be heading west and cut across Florida....and for this entire time it has defied predicitons.....the last update i saw was a more NW turn....hopefully this IS just a wobble.
just has me concerned here in Jax.
I'd say it's followed very nearly the forecast for quite a long while .. other than maybe the timing.
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Islandgirl
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I too am concerned about the possible northern turn.There are already so many evacuated people here in Brunswick, so no hotel rooms available. I live in a moble home.And my husband cut the grass yesterday and said the yard is so wet that the mower was slipping and sliding . So, if we get alot of rain, we have a problem.Currently, we are under a surf and wind advisory.Well, let's just watch and see what happens. 
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