Accuweather 8 AM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 4, 2004 7:39 a.m.


Hurricane Frances as of 8AM was located near 26.7 north, 78.4 west which is very near Freeport on Grand Bahama Island. This puts the center of the hurricane about 110 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph with higher gusts. Frances is moving generally to the northwest. Minimum central pressure was at 960 mb or 28.78 inches.


The hurricane will approach the Florida coast Saturday night, and could make landfall close toward dawn Sunday between West Palm Beach and Melbourne Florida. After the satellite presentation looked somewhat ragged Friday, later images Friday night both by satellite and radar suggest the hurricane is attempting to strengthen. Reports from reconnaissance aircraft show no important change in pressure Friday night. There is still some time for Frances to become stronger. The slow foreword motion will cause the path that Frances takes to become more erratic. A large wobble to the north or south could affect landfall time and location.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the central and northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for Florida's east coast from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the middle and upper Florida Keys from south of Florida City to the Seven Mile Bridge, including Florida Bay. A hurricane watch is in effect from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach.

Now that we have discussed the possibilities, here is the current expectation. While Frances is not a growing Category 4 like Charley, or even Andrew, it remains a strong enough storm to cause major problems across Florida. Current thought is that Frances could remain a Category 2 hurricane or intensify slightly to perhaps to a Category 3, but it is doubtful that this hurricane will intensify any stronger than a Category 3. A slower motion will cause upwelling under the hurricane, meaning the very rough seas under the hurricane will bring colder water up to the surface, causing the hurricane to weaken. However, we are still talking about winds of more than 100 mph with gusts over 120 mph even with a Category 2, which can still cause tremendous damage. The slow movement of this hurricane will translate into torrential, flooding rain for several hours within a couple of hundred miles along the path Frances takes into the Deep South or Southeast. A storm surge of 3-6 feet appears likely near and north of where the eye crosses the coast. The storm surge will be limited to 3-6 feet by the fact the hurricane is moving very slowly and the coast curves northwestward, and therefore the storm will not be coming in perpendicular to the coast. Another aspect of landfalling hurricanes is the threat for tornadoes. This will be a big concern throughout the state of Florida from Saturday into Sunday.

As of 5:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Ivan was located near 9.0 north and 37.4 west, or about 1670 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph and some intensification is expected over the next 24 hours. The storm is moving west near 18 mph. Recent computer model output shows this system moving nearly due west for the next several days, then a gradual turn to the northwest. Current trends in satellite images suggest Ivan is in a good position to intensify into a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours. Long range forecast models take Ivan into the Caribbean Tuesday night, then into the western Caribbean by the end of next week. There is great uncertainty where this system will end up toward the end of next week.

We are also keeping an eye on two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located about 1,300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 25 north and 40 west, or well northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both features have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. The system well northeast of the Leewards is moving west-northwest, and there is some concern it could develop into a depression in a day or two.