probably more intense now

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:06 am

the last recon showd flight level winds to 97KT, an increase and the sat and radar imagery shows much better organization. We may yet see a major hurricane out of this system

ColinD · #2 Postby **ColinD** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:07 am

Looks like a closed eye is forming on the latest infrared image.

ColinD · #3 Postby **ColinD** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:09 am

What are your thoughts on the lack of drop of pressure on that last recon though?

Innotech · #4 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:17 am

ColinD wrote:What are your thoughts on the lack of drop of pressure on that last recon though?

It is being sheared by high pressure environments, so pressure drops will not be indicative of true strength. Higher pressure can sitll bring highr winds in htis storm.

Derek Ortt · #5 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:23 am

the lack of a pressure drop is some good news; however, I am concerned about the 90+ FL winds expanding to the NW quad

#6 Postby **Jupiter** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:24 am

Please I have no clue derek...explain "concerned"
THanks

#7 Postby **Jupiter** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:25 am

Sorry I know what the word means, but what could happen due to this?

Website · #8 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:31 am

He means it will probably strengthen before landfall(if it hasn't already). Keep in mind, it still has around 24 hours until it does strike land.

#9 Postby **Jupiter** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:34 am

Thank You!
(not for the strengthening, but for the info....)

B-Bear · #10 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:36 am

Well if most DEFINITELY looks like it is trying to get its act together on the western side of the storm. Still struggling to get it done though.

#11 Postby **PurdueWx80** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:37 am

The upper level outflow has also been expanding to the Northwest, something we haven't really seen much of for the last day. You might also notice this in the western half of the storm now, over Florida. The water vapor loops still shows some shear, epecially over the southwestern side of the storm - which is probably why that area is still relatively devoid of convection. If she can move a bit more to the north, the shear will greatly be reduced, and there is nothing short of more shear or dry air to prevent strengthening. Landfall does still appear to be another 24 hours from now - and we all know how fast a hurricane can strengthen given the right conditions. Point is - the EC of FL should still be prepared as if a Cat 4 is coming their way, whether or not it does will be seen within the next 12 hours.

#12 Postby **NateFLA** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:39 am

I am seeing what I think is outflow in Tampa now, started seeing it last night around 3am. Seems to be increasing...

More moisture being pumped in?

guanaskip · #13 Postby **guanaskip** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:41 am

Derek--appreciate your thoughts on Frances.Now that it has pulverized Abaco--any thoughts on Ivan goin N rather than S of PR

B-Bear · #14 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 7:42 am

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

On this image you can see good outflow in all directions now except the west, and it really looks like its trying to wrap around itself to the west now.

#15 Postby **jlauderdal** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:06 am

Derek Ortt wrote:the last recon showd flight level winds to 97KT, an increase and the sat and radar imagery shows much better organization. We may yet see a major hurricane out of this system

nhc has done a really good job the last day an 1/2..they saw this NW and now wnw w move and said when it makes that run as it is now there could be a nintensity increase albeit slight. really good work by nhc in a very diffucult forecasting envioronment the last few days. nice work by derek also..pretty much stuck the track days ago..little high on intensity but intensity is somewhat a mystery. keep up the good work.

#16 Postby **JPmia** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:45 am

I agree with you jlauderdal...the NHC has done a great job with this storm even with the complexities involved with strength..track..and impact. Hopefully they will continue with Ivan!

clueless newbie · #17 Postby **clueless newbie** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:56 am

Looking at the radar loop from Melbourne, the center of circulation became much better organized: fully closed and circular. Luckily, it is now very close to the land and will not have time to strenghten much.

B-Bear · #18 Postby **B-Bear** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 8:57 am

clueless newbie wrote:Looking at the radar loop from Melbourne, the center of circulation became much better organized: fully closed and circular. Luckily, it is now very close to the land and will not have time to strenghten much.

It's got lots of time left to strengthen yet--still about 24 hours prior to landfall.

RichG · #19 Postby **RichG** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:00 am

derek, thanks for the forcasts and hard work, it looks like you were right on days ago good job

Innotech · #20 Postby **Innotech** » Sat Sep 04, 2004 9:01 am

it went from open eye, open to the west, to closed eye, and wrapping to the west in under an hour! Frances has spunk.

probably more intense now

probably more intense now

Re: probably more intense now

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