Serious doubts about intensity forecast...

[Windfall]

I really do not see how the National Weather Center expects this storm to remain a borderline category 2/3 hurricane. Isn't the sheer decreasing and also the SW quadrant growing a bit more organized as a thunderstorm complex fills in? Even more, this storm is moving so slowly that it is projected to make landfall maybe tomorrow morning. Think about it! Less westerly shear, 12+ hours over the gulf stream, and nearly stationary movement. This translates to a category 4 hurricane. Charley was supposed to be a category 2 when it hit land. Then it got upgraded to category 3 by later forecast predictions. When it actually hit land it became a STRONG category 4 even though it was moving almost 20 mph north.

[jpigott]

any mets want to comment on this, sitting here in N PBC thats a little un-nerving particularly with the more westerly track this thing is expected to take

[NateFLA]

Windfall's assesment seems a *little* doomsdayish to me, but I do see it getting stronger and more organized every frame. With some much time left and only hotter waters ahead, lets just hope she only LOOKS stronger.

[mf_dolphin]

While some intensification is possible, Frances will have trouble wrapping up to a CAT 4. A CAT 3 is very possible. Gusts will run up to CAT 4 I'm sure. Everyone in the path better hunker down because the prep time is just about over. Good Luck all!

[LadyStorm]

I totally agree with you. On the last radar imagery, I saw, there is a lot of convection going on. Be interesting to see what the 11 am report has to say.

I really do not see how the National Weather Center expects this storm to remain a borderline category 2/3 hurricane. Isn't the sheer decreasing and also the SW quadrant growing a bit more organized as a thunderstorm complex fills in? Even more, this storm is moving so slowly that it is projected to make landfall maybe tomorrow morning. Think about it! Less westerly shear, 12+ hours over the gulf stream, and nearly stationary movement. This translates to a category 4 hurricane. Charley was supposed to be a category 2 when it hit land. Then it got upgraded to category 3 by later forecast predictions. When it actually hit land it became a STRONG category 4 even though it was moving almost 20 mph north.

[frankthetank]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=SPGF1

shows the pressure is really dropping near the buoy...one gust of 78nots this am.....Ed Rappaport says CAT 2 at landfall....

[Brent]

Well, the thing is, the storm is very large and it will be hard for it to rapidly strengthen. I think Moderate Cat 3(120 mph) is the strongest this can get. Smaller systems(like Charley and Andrew) are more prone to wild changes in strength.

[kck70]

Very True...but mother nature has a way of surprising us all

[frankthetank]

well...locally ive experienced 60MPH straight line winds during thunderstorms and i didn't like it...so Cat1-Cat3...your still talking very very strong winds...CBS4 http://www.cbs4.com/ some station dude is out on the beach....looks pretty impressive to me...later