Items to ponder the rest of the day as Frances tries to tighten up and nears Gulf Stream on her way in:
Frances at 8am: 960 mb
Charley, morning of his landfall:
5am adv: 970mb, 15 mile eye
11am: 965mb, 10 mile eye
2pm: 954mb, 5 mile eye
5pm: 935-940mb (just after Charlotte landfall)
Pressure drop of 30+ in 12 hours, with little shear except well N of storm
Now...Frances has one big DIS-advantage if you are looking for this kind of pressure fall...no real eye to work with...BUT if she can gather some spin, it is not impossible to see a 10+mb drop in pressure, especially with 10-12 hours remaining to landfall and Gulf Stream to go...SW quad must fill in and thunderstorm consolidation must quicken.
My best estimate at landfall...in the 950's, unless something drastic occurs with the eye.
Frances vs Charley landfalling pressure comparisons
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: duilaslol and 284 guests