11AM DISCUSSION-70NMI EYE

[weatherFrEaK]

HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 43
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2004

MIAMI WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS THAT FRANCES HAS DEVELOPED A LARGE EYE OF
ABOUT 70 NMI IN DIAMETER. SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE CLOUD
PATTERN IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND RECON SUGGESTS THAT AN
EYEWALL MAY BE FORMING. HOWEVER...INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 90
KNOTS AND BECAUSE THE HURRICANE HAS ABOUT 12 TO 18 MORE HOURS OVER
WARM WATERS AND THE SHEAR MAY RELAX...THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL.

RADAR AND RECON INDICATE THAT FRANCES HAS BEEN DRIFTING BETWEEN THE
WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST AND BECAUSE THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD FURTHER...A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
BETWEEN 5 AND 8 KNOTS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS
IS IN AGREEMENT WITH MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH CONSISTENTLY HAS FORECAST
THE HURRICANE TO MOVE ACROSS FLORIDA. FRANCES HAS A LARGE EYE AND
IS MOVING SLOWLY. THEREFORE...THOSE IN THE PATH OF THE CENTER WILL
EXPERIENCE THE CALM OF THE EYE FOR A LONG PERIOD OF TIME. IN
ADDITION...THIS HURRICANE COULD PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG ITS
PATH.

FORECASTER AVILA

[weatherFrEaK]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1025 AM EDT SAT SEP 4 2004

.DISCUSSION...

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES WILL MAKE LANDFALL THIS EVENING ALONG
THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS...

...GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND APPROACHING
HURRICANE FORCE ALONG THE SPACE COAST...

...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MARTIN COUNTY COAST
DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...

...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE AND EXTREME FLOODING POSSIBLE WITH FRANCES...

DISCUSSION...CENTER OF LARGE AND DANGEROUS HURRICANE FRANCES WAS
NORTH OF SPGF1 AS OF 15Z AND MOVING ON A SLOW WNW TO NW HEADING.
SQUALL BANDS WITH GUSTS ABOVE HURCN FORCE /87 MPH/ HAVE ALREADY
BEEN REPORTED AND THESE CONDS WILL SPREAD NWD UP THE TREASURE AND
SPACE COASTS SHORTLY. SEVERAL TOWERS AT CAPE CANAVERAL AFS REPORTED
GUSTS OF 67 MPH WITH THE LAST SQUALL BAND.

FCST TRACK/INTENSITY TREND OF SLIGHT STRENGHTENING BEFORE LANDFALL
APPEARS TO BE RIGHT ON TRACK AND WILL NOT MAKE CHANGES OF MUCH
SIGINIFICANCE TO THE ZFP. WILL NEED TO KNOCK QUITE A BIT BACK OFF
HOURLY AND MAX TEMPS IN THE GRIDS AND ZFP.

&&

.MARINE...AS OF 13Z MOUNTAINOUS SEAS WERE BEING REPORTED AT BOTH
41009 (41P51KT/~19FT) AND 41010 (35G45KT/28FT). CORE OF DANGEROUS
HURRICANE FRANCES WILL MOVE WNW ACROSS OUR SRN WATERS THIS AFTN.
EXTREME WINDS AND SEAS WILL MAKE HAZARDOUS AND LIFE THREATENING SEA
CONDITIONS. SMALL CRAFT REMAIN IN PORT.

[weatherFrEaK]

"Mountainous Seas..."