11 a.m. NHC - GOM/Fl. Panhandle/AL back in play

[tallywx]

NHC forecast track now has a restrengthening Frances bumping right along the FL Panhandle coast from Apalachicola to Mobile on Monday. They have a 60 kt position a few miles south of Apalachicola, meaning that it could be a cat. 1 hurricane again at its second landfall. See below:

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/1500z 26.9n 78.8w 90 kt
12hr VT 05/0000z 27.3n 79.5w 95 kt
24hr VT 05/1200z 28.0n 81.2w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 06/0000z 28.5n 83.0w 50 kt...over water
48hr VT 06/1200z 29.5n 85.0w 60 kt...over water
72hr VT 07/1200z 32.0n 88.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 08/1200z 34.5n 89.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 09/1200z 39.6n 86.5w 20 kt...inland

[Frank P]

I think a big factor for the GOM will be the latitude Frances exits FL... good measuring stick will be the Tampa Bay Area and what direction she'll be heading when exiting Fl....

if north of Tampa probably closer to PC/Apal..
south of Tampa probably closer to Mobile... but a little more time for development....

its not there yet but many people did not think it would ever make it to the GOM.... models have consistents shift west with her over the past 12-18 hours to... we've got plenty time to monitor, interesting to see what the models say during the next couple of runs..

right now however all eye are looking at a landing approaching hurricane that appears to continue to get better organized...

another note, stated on TWC, appears she might be trying to create a smaller eye in the northern section of the large one... you can see this process developing on the radar loop... still appears to be moving north of due west...