Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 43
Statement as of 15:00Z on September 04, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Georgia coast to Altamaha Sound. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Altamaha Sound.
A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Anna Maria Island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Peninsula
...On the West Coast...from Anna Maria Island around the southern
end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the southeast
coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida
City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward along the the Florida West Coast to St. Marks. A tropical
storm watch is now in effect for the Florida West Coast to just
north of Anna Maria Island to St. Marks.
Hurricane center located near 26.9n 78.8w at 04/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 961 mb
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 90ne 50se 50sw 75nw.
50 kt.......125ne 100se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt.......160ne 160se 120sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 26.9n 78.8w at 04/1500z
at 04/1200z center was located near 26.8n 78.5w
forecast valid 05/0000z 27.3n 79.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 90ne 50se 50sw 75nw.
50 kt...125ne 110se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 120sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 05/1200z 28.0n 81.2w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt...125ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 06/0000z 28.5n 83.0w...over water
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 06/1200z 29.5n 85.0w...over water
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 32.0n 88.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 08/1200z 34.5n 89.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Outlook valid 09/1200z 39.6n 86.5w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.9n 78.8w
next advisory at 04/2100z
forecaster Avila
11am Frances-105 mph winds, 961 mb pressure
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bwstg
Re: 11am Frances-105 mph winds, 961 mb pressure
Brent wrote:Hurricane Frances Forecast/Advisory Number 43
Statement as of 15:00Z on September 04, 2004
a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Georgia coast to Altamaha Sound. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Altamaha Sound.
A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Anna Maria Island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Peninsula
...On the West Coast...from Anna Maria Island around the southern
end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the southeast
coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida
City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward along the the Florida West Coast to St. Marks. A tropical
storm watch is now in effect for the Florida West Coast to just
north of Anna Maria Island to St. Marks.
Hurricane center located near 26.9n 78.8w at 04/1500z
position accurate within 15 nm
present movement toward the west-northwest or 300 degrees at 4 kt
estimated minimum central pressure 961 mb
Max sustained winds 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt.
64 kt....... 90ne 50se 50sw 75nw.
50 kt.......125ne 100se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt.......160ne 160se 120sw 150nw.
12 ft seas..350ne 180se 180sw 350nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.
Repeat...center located near 26.9n 78.8w at 04/1500z
at 04/1200z center was located near 26.8n 78.5w
forecast valid 05/0000z 27.3n 79.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.
64 kt... 90ne 50se 50sw 75nw.
50 kt...125ne 110se 80sw 110nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 120sw 150nw.
Forecast valid 05/1200z 28.0n 81.2w...inland
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 50ne 0se 0sw 0nw.
50 kt...125ne 75se 25sw 75nw.
34 kt...160ne 160se 100sw 125nw.
Forecast valid 06/0000z 28.5n 83.0w...over water
Max wind 50 kt...gusts 60 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 06/1200z 29.5n 85.0w...over water
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 25ne 25se 25sw 25nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.
Forecast valid 07/1200z 32.0n 88.5w...inland
Max wind 30 kt...gusts 40 kt.
Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day
outlook valid 08/1200z 34.5n 89.5w...inland
Max wind 25 kt...gusts 35 kt.
Outlook valid 09/1200z 39.6n 86.5w...inland
Max wind 20 kt...gusts 25 kt.
Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 26.9n 78.8w
next advisory at 04/2100z
forecaster Avila
How are you getting these quicker than the forecasters?
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Hurricane Frances Discussion Number 43
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004
Miami WSR-88D radar shows that Frances has developed a large eye of
about 70 nmi in diameter. Satellite images suggest that the cloud
pattern is a little better organized and recon suggests that an
eyewall may be forming. However...initial intensity continues at 90
knots and because the hurricane has about 12 to 18 more hours over
warm waters and the shear may relax...there is an opportunity for
strengthening before landfall.
Radar and recon indicate that Frances has been drifting between the
west and west-northwest and because the subtropical high to the
north is forecast to build further...a general west-northwest track
between 5 and 8 knots is expected during the next day or two. This
is in agreement with model guidance which consistently has forecast
the hurricane to move across Florida. Frances has a large eye and
is moving slowly. Therefore...those in the path of the center will
experience the calm of the eye for a long period of time. In
addition...this hurricane could produce torrential rains along its
path.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/1500z 26.9n 78.8w 90 kt
12hr VT 05/0000z 27.3n 79.5w 95 kt
24hr VT 05/1200z 28.0n 81.2w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 06/0000z 28.5n 83.0w 50 kt...over water
48hr VT 06/1200z 29.5n 85.0w 60 kt...over water
72hr VT 07/1200z 32.0n 88.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 08/1200z 34.5n 89.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 09/1200z 39.6n 86.5w 20 kt...inland
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004
Miami WSR-88D radar shows that Frances has developed a large eye of
about 70 nmi in diameter. Satellite images suggest that the cloud
pattern is a little better organized and recon suggests that an
eyewall may be forming. However...initial intensity continues at 90
knots and because the hurricane has about 12 to 18 more hours over
warm waters and the shear may relax...there is an opportunity for
strengthening before landfall.
Radar and recon indicate that Frances has been drifting between the
west and west-northwest and because the subtropical high to the
north is forecast to build further...a general west-northwest track
between 5 and 8 knots is expected during the next day or two. This
is in agreement with model guidance which consistently has forecast
the hurricane to move across Florida. Frances has a large eye and
is moving slowly. Therefore...those in the path of the center will
experience the calm of the eye for a long period of time. In
addition...this hurricane could produce torrential rains along its
path.
Forecaster Avila
forecast positions and Max winds
initial 04/1500z 26.9n 78.8w 90 kt
12hr VT 05/0000z 27.3n 79.5w 95 kt
24hr VT 05/1200z 28.0n 81.2w 65 kt...inland
36hr VT 06/0000z 28.5n 83.0w 50 kt...over water
48hr VT 06/1200z 29.5n 85.0w 60 kt...over water
72hr VT 07/1200z 32.0n 88.5w 30 kt...inland
96hr VT 08/1200z 34.5n 89.5w 25 kt...inland
120hr VT 09/1200z 39.6n 86.5w 20 kt...inland
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#neversummer
-
Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 38264
- Age: 37
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Actually, the center is forecast to pass farther west from me now(I'm almost on the Georgia stateline)
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 43
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004
...Frances heading for Florida...weather expected to worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Georgia coast to Altamaha Sound. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Altamaha Sound.
A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Anna Maria Island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Peninsula
...On the West Coast...from Anna Maria Island around the southern
end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the southeast
coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida
City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward along the the Florida West Coast to St. Marks. A tropical
storm watch is now in effect for the Florida West Coast to just
north of Anna Maria Island to St. Marks.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
by radar and reconnaissance near latitude 26.9 north...longitude
78.8 west or about 80 miles... 130 km...east of Palm Beach Florida.
Frances has been drifting between the west and west-northwest during
the past few hours but is expected to resume a west-northwest track
near 5 mph... 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track...the large eye
of Hurricane Frances will be very near the Florida East Coast by
late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts... stronger winds...especially in gusts...are possible on
high rise buildings. Some strengthening is possible before landfall
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. Strong winds are already affecting the East
Coast of Florida and will be spreading inland...where warnings for
hurricane force winds has been issued. For storm information
specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your
local weather office. A wind gust of 91 mph was reported at Jupiter
Inlet at 9 am EDT and a wind gust of 70 mph was reported at Boynton
Beach at 1020 am EDT.
Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 961
mb...28.38 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be
expected on the west side of islands of the northern Bahamas.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances.
Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...are expected over the Florida Peninsula in association
with Frances.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over central Florida today.
Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...26.9 N... 78.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 961 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
Hurricane Frances Advisory Number 43
Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on September 04, 2004
...Frances heading for Florida...weather expected to worsen...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the East Coast of Florida
from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach...including Lake
Okeechobee. A Hurricane Warning also remains in effect for the
northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Georgia coast to Altamaha Sound. A Tropical
Storm Warning is now in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Altamaha Sound.
A Hurricane Watch remain in effect from north of Flagler Beach to
Fernandina Beach.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the Tropical Storm Warning is extended
northward along the Florida West Coast to Anna Maria Island. A
Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Florida Peninsula
...On the West Coast...from Anna Maria Island around the southern
end of the pennisula to just south of Florida City on the southeast
coast...and for the middle and Upper Keys from south of Florida
City to the Seven Mile Bridge...and for Florida Bay.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the tropical storm watch has been extended
northward along the the Florida West Coast to St. Marks. A tropical
storm watch is now in effect for the Florida West Coast to just
north of Anna Maria Island to St. Marks.
At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Hurricane Frances was located
by radar and reconnaissance near latitude 26.9 north...longitude
78.8 west or about 80 miles... 130 km...east of Palm Beach Florida.
Frances has been drifting between the west and west-northwest during
the past few hours but is expected to resume a west-northwest track
near 5 mph... 7 km/hr today. On the forecast track...the large eye
of Hurricane Frances will be very near the Florida East Coast by
late tonight or early Sunday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph...165 km/hr...with higher
gusts... stronger winds...especially in gusts...are possible on
high rise buildings. Some strengthening is possible before landfall
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 105 miles...165 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 185 miles...295 km. Strong winds are already affecting the East
Coast of Florida and will be spreading inland...where warnings for
hurricane force winds has been issued. For storm information
specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your
local weather office. A wind gust of 91 mph was reported at Jupiter
Inlet at 9 am EDT and a wind gust of 70 mph was reported at Boynton
Beach at 1020 am EDT.
Minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was 961
mb...28.38 inches.
Storm surge flooding of 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels can be
expected on the west side of islands of the northern Bahamas.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 4 to 6 feet above normal tide
levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...is
expected near and to the north of where the center makes landfall
in Florida. Storm surge flooding of 5 feet above normal levels is
expected in Lake Okeechobee. Along the southwest Florida
coast...storm surge flooding of 1 to 3 feet above normal tide
levels is expected south of the path of Frances.
Storm total rainfall amounts could reach 20 inches in the northwest
Bahamas. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...with locally higher
amounts...are expected over the Florida Peninsula in association
with Frances.
Isolated tornadoes are possible over central Florida today.
Swells generated by Frances are affecting portions of the
southeastern coast of the United States. These swells could cause
dangerous surf and rip currents.
Repeating the 11 am EDT position...26.9 N... 78.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 5 mph. Maximum sustained
winds...105 mph. Minimum central pressure... 961 mb.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane
Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next complete advisory at 5 PM
EDT.
Forecaster Avila
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