Stengthening...The GOM...and the Redneck Las Vegas

[PTPatrick]

These are my humble opinions:

It looks to be strengthening as we speak. I think it will hit Palm Beach County(as I said 3 days ago) as a cat 3(but a 4 isnt out of the question b/c we still have 20 hours or so, and a round of rapid intensification could do that). It will move right over Okochobee and Tampa. I have talked on here about a landfall near New Oreals, Biloxi, and Mobile for days now and a lot of folks said it wouldnt happen, but it appears that that is what will happen. Cant zero in on where just yet, but SE LA to Pensacola seems to be the area, including the Redneck Las Vegas (Biloxi). I think it will have a little less time over land in FL because the stall has occured over water, so it would hit FL early Sunday and reemerge as soon late sunday night. I suspect it will still have a center intact and it should have 20-30 hrs over almost 90 degree gulf water. haveing said that, I am not convinced that upper levels will be favorable for strengthening, so I am not thinking that anything more than a cat is likely to happen on the Gulf Coast. I do think it could very easily be a cat 1 though. We will have to wait and see what it looks like when it gets over Fl, because often systems hold very well coming across FL. Moral of the story, Gulf coasters New Orleans to the Panhandle be ready for a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane.

[Ixolib]

These are my humble opinions:

It looks to be strengthening as we speak. I think it will hit Palm Beach County(as I said 3 days ago) as a cat 3(but a 4 isnt out of the question b/c we still have 20 hours or so, and a round of rapid intensification could do that). It will move right over Okochobee and Tampa. I have talked on here about a landfall near New Oreals, Biloxi, and Mobile for days now and a lot of folks said it wouldnt happen, but it appears that that is what will happen. Cant zero in on where just yet, but SE LA to Pensacola seems to be the area, including the Redneck Las Vegas (Biloxi). I think it will have a little less time over land in FL because the stall has occured over water, so it would hit FL early Sunday and reemerge as soon late sunday night. I suspect it will still have a center intact and it should have 20-30 hrs over almost 90 degree gulf water. haveing said that, I am not convinced that upper levels will be favorable for strengthening, so I am not thinking that anything more than a cat is likely to happen on the Gulf Coast. I do think it could very easily be a cat 1 though. We will have to wait and see what it looks like when it gets over Fl, because often systems hold very well coming across FL. Moral of the story, Gulf coasters New Orleans to the Panhandle be ready for a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane.

Redneck LV -

But seriously, it's always amazed me how "little" it takes to put these casinos in jeopardy. Georges was the only cane to impact the area since they've been in business, and they were closed down for two-three weeks!! And we've had many "minor" brushes with tropical storms that knocked them out of business for days. Very suseptiple to even minimal surge.....

[rtd2]

quote "But seriously, it's always amazed me how "little" it takes to put these casinos in jeopardy. Georges was the only cane to impact the area since they've been in business, and they were closed down for two-three weeks!! And we've had many "minor" brushes with tropical storms that knocked them out of business for days. Very suseptiple to even minimal surge....."




Yep a good cat3 or greater and the "ISLE OF CAPRI " will be the "ISLE OF DEBRI"....there has been several of us lefties thet predicted the track would shift 1st south then west....I just hope it doesnt go over punta gorda on her exit into gomex

[Frank P]

latest model run has it at 97K in GOM per SHIPS..... hmmmm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php ... &version=1

[MSRobi911]

A lot of folks already call it Pile of Debris as it is.

I still can't believe, after all the years they have been there, that the County and the Cities of Biloxi and Gulfport let them build on the south side of Hwy. 90 after Camille. There was a ban on any building on that side of the highway for years. Strange what a little money will do!

[Ixolib]

8-) A lot of folks already call it Pile of Debris as it is.

I still can't believe, after all the years they have been there, that the County and the Cities of Biloxi and Gulfport let them build on the south side of Hwy. 90 after Camille. There was a ban on any building on that side of the highway for years. Strange what a little money will do!

Get one major in here, and the decision to go LAND-BASED will happen real quick - too much revenue possibility to let them sit battered, bashed, and un-useable...

[CFL]

I wonder if Frances could strengthen back up to a cat 2 if it spent enough time in the GOM. She has surprised me with how she has sustained herself despite the shear.

[rsm]

If you want to call it a derogatory name at least get it right - It's called the Redneck RIVIERA - not the redneck Las Vegas. I know because I am from there. And possibly the most beautiful beaches and coastline in North America.

[MSRobi911]

so is he and I think most of the folks in the thread.

[Frank P]

Latest GFDL run takes Frances to my sister city of Pascagoula Ms... I would not be surprised, if the model continues to shift west, that the NHC track will shift a little more west at 5:00 pm....

[MSRobi911]

FrankP, don't want the East side of a storm again...Georges was enough...had 2 feet of water inside house........

in Pascagoula

[Ixolib]

so is he and I think most of the folks in the thread.

We used to call it the RIVERA, but that was BC. Now, the title sticks.

Biloxi Native...

[PTPatrick]

The Riviera is the Panhandle of FL and Gulf Shores...Biloxi is Vegas baby, our beaches suck too bad to call it the Riviera...

PS...dont like GFDL...I mile from ALA/MS line...down in a Bayou. GOT to get out if it follows that track

[rtd2]

quote "Get one major in here, and the decision to go LAND-BASED will happen real quick - too much revenue possibility to let them sit battered, bashed, and un-useable..."






I too beleive that will be the force behind land-based ...with the exception of the Beau Rivage There would be alot of empty barges in a strong enough storm!

[PurdueWx80]

If you want to call it a derogatory name at least get it right - It's called the Redneck RIVIERA - not the redneck Las Vegas. I know because I am from there. And possibly the most beautiful beaches and coastline in North America.

I know it as the riviera as well. LOL I'd have to disagree w/ you on it being the most beautiful coastline in N.A. It is the most beautiful sandy beach I've seen, but the coastline in the Pacific Northwest as absolutely breathtaking when it's sunny. Giant mountains to the east, giant ocean to the west - it really is God's country up there.

[Frank P]

well MSRobi, I don't want to alarm you, as you know how fickle these things are.... but....

GFDL shows it coming your way....
SHIPS intensity = 97K

IF this comes to fruition... and by no means I'm saying it will..... heck I'm still waiting for this thing to hit FL.... then you have another situation very similar to Georges for your area... I hope not... but the scary thing is that the NHC likes the GFDL.... intensity models are hit and miss.... so lets just pay real close attention to where Frances exits Florida, and how close the GFDL has a handle on her... and what the environment in the GOM as to supporting her further development

stay tuned GOM residents..... it just might be out turn next.... hopefully not.....

[MSRobi911]

Frank P

I saw all the models on Wunderground....really don't like the looks of them and I know they always shift the track, Frederic, Elena, Georges....you know Peter Reader said Georges was going into the mouth of the MS for how long, till it was blowing down the station...... But NASH had it right all along...wish we still got WWL!

[Lindaloo]

The Riviera is the Panhandle of FL and Gulf Shores...Biloxi is Vegas baby, our beaches suck too bad to call it the Riviera...

PS...dont like GFDL...I mile from ALA/MS line...down in a Bayou. GOT to get out if it follows that track

Yep you are in Pecan.

It is not the beaches that suck it is the water. hehehe

I am 8 miles from the MS/AL line.

[Lindaloo]

Frank P

I saw all the models on Wunderground....really don't like the looks of them and I know they always shift the track, Frederic, Elena, Georges....you know Peter Reader said Georges was going into the mouth of the MS for how long, till it was blowing down the station...... But NASH had it right all along...wish we still got WWL!

Peter (Mike) Reader actually was dead on with landfall for georges. He warned us here in Pascagoula that we would get hammered and we did. I remember him freaking out because they had to move to another part of the station because one of the towers was going to fall.

My cousin that lives on Washington Ave. (close to 11th street) stayed at her house. She said the water came in sideways and they had to go to the second floor and also move stuff up there. She vowed to never stay again.

[Agua]

I'd have to disagree w/ you on it being the most beautiful coastline in N.A. It is the most beautiful sandy beach I've seen, but the coastline in the Pacific Northwest as absolutely breathtaking when it's sunny. Giant mountains to the east, giant ocean to the west - it really is God's country up there.

Got to agree there. Most beautiful area I've ever seen.