12 UTC UKMET for Ivan=All the way to central Bahamas

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 37.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.09.2004 8.8N 37.8W MODERATE

00UTC 05.09.2004 9.6N 40.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2004 10.2N 44.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2004 10.9N 48.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2004 11.9N 51.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2004 12.8N 55.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2004 13.5N 58.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2004 14.4N 61.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2004 15.3N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2004 16.5N 68.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2004 18.8N 70.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2004 20.2N 74.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2004 21.9N 75.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Another major cane for the Florida area?

[Brent]

21.9 N/75.8 W is in the Central Bahamas.

[NateFLA]

I'm chanting "not Tampa!"

Sorry rest of the state, but Tampa bay (the actual bay) is a disater waiting to happen for a major storm. My house is miles inland, and only 17 feet about sea level. With charley, they were predicting storm surge over 15 feet for us.

I can't imagine a well developed cat 5 or 4 coming up the bay... we would be obliterated.

[cycloneye]

Do the Bahamas people need more of this kind of system another major cane?

[Patrick99]

Tropics could be making up for lost time, in terms of Florida hits.

[hibiscushouse]

Another major cane for the Florida area?

Newbie question here :
Which line in the above list tells you that it's coming this way?

[Brent]

Another major cane for the Florida area?

Newbie question here :
Which line in the above list tells you that it's coming this way?

You have to plot the coordinates and look at the motion. The 21.9 N/75.8 W(on Friday) is in the Central Bahamas and it's moving NW towards Florida.

[NJCane]

If you match the latitude and longitude from each line to calculate a heading, it would be in the central Bahamas moving NW at south FL at the end of the forecast.

[B-Bear]

Okay, but doesn't the UKMET have Ivan tracking directly over Hispaniola? Those 10,000 foot mountains would tear that hurricane up. It would probably be little more than a tropical storm by the time it emerged on the northern side of the island.

[ROCK]

TROPICAL STORM IVAN ANALYSED POSITION : 8.8N 37.8W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092004



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 04.09.2004 8.8N 37.8W MODERATE

00UTC 05.09.2004 9.6N 40.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 05.09.2004 10.2N 44.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 06.09.2004 10.9N 48.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 06.09.2004 11.9N 51.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.09.2004 12.8N 55.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 07.09.2004 13.5N 58.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 08.09.2004 14.4N 61.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.09.2004 15.3N 65.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.09.2004 16.5N 68.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 09.09.2004 18.8N 70.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 10.09.2004 20.2N 74.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 10.09.2004 21.9N 75.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

Another major cane for the Florida area?

GFS takes into Central / Northern carib. Im thinking the long awaited GOM event for this year....

[NJCane]

You are correct, but there is no point in talking about an island 6 days away ripping the storm apart. Do not take the exact location away from the forecast, but the general movement of it going from west, to wnw, to nw

[southerngale]

Another Florida event maybe? Geez, they need a break!

[dhweather]

Luis, how close will this path be to you?

[Brent]

Seems to take it along the south coast and then across the tip of Haiti and then Central Bahamas.

[B-Bear]

You are correct, but there is no point in talking about an island 6 days away ripping the storm apart. Do not take the exact location away from the forecast, but the general movement of it going from west, to wnw, to nw

True enough. It just seemed to me that if you're going to look at a model's track, you have to consider the entire track. Sure, it could still end up in the same place at the end and miss Hispaniola. But I was just pointing out that the current UKMET has Ivan going directly over Hispaniola, and, if that did indeed happen, he probably would not be a serious immediate threat to the Bahamas once he got past Hispaniola.

[alicia-w]

10000 ft mountains in Hispaniola? Sorry, I think they're more like 6500, 7000 max.

[anjou]

If Ivan is decent potential risk for Florida - even this far out - definitely think it's worth some discussion as a what-if... given that power outages and road blockages and flooding are likely to still be crippling parts of Florida around the time that Ivan could pose a threat to the state.

Not fun for the emergency management folks, or anyone else.

[Cape Verde]

I hear the ski resorts in Haiti and the Dominican Republic rival Aspen.

[B-Bear]

10000 ft mountains in Hispaniola? Sorry, I think they're more like 6500, 7000 max.

The terrain, dominated by the Cordillera Central, is high and rugged; Pico Duarte (10,417 ft/3,175 m high)

http://www.encyclopedia.com/html/h/hispanio.asp

[B-Bear]

Wow! Sure got quiet all of the sudden.