18:00 UTC models for Ivan

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cycloneye
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18:00 UTC models for Ivan

#1 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 04, 2004 1:59 pm

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IVAN (AL092004) ON 20040904 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
040904 1800 040905 0600 040905 1800 040906 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 9.0N 39.9W 9.3N 42.5W 9.8N 45.1W 10.5N 47.7W
BAMM 9.0N 39.9W 9.2N 42.7W 9.7N 45.8W 10.2N 48.9W
A98E 9.0N 39.9W 9.1N 43.3W 9.2N 46.6W 9.3N 49.5W
LBAR 9.0N 39.9W 9.1N 43.0W 9.4N 46.4W 9.5N 49.8W
SHIP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 66KTS
DSHP 50KTS 54KTS 59KTS 66KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
040906 1800 040907 1800 040908 1800 040909 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 11.0N 50.4W 12.2N 55.8W 13.8N 60.5W 16.0N 64.5W
BAMM 10.7N 52.0W 11.2N 58.4W 12.1N 64.7W 13.4N 70.3W
A98E 9.3N 52.2W 9.8N 56.6W 10.6N 60.6W 11.8N 65.1W
LBAR 9.6N 53.6W 9.4N 60.2W 10.9N 65.4W .0N .0W
SHIP 74KTS 87KTS 95KTS 101KTS
DSHP 74KTS 87KTS 95KTS 101KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 9.0N LONCUR = 39.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 17KT
LATM12 = 8.9N LONM12 = 36.5W DIRM12 = 267DEG SPDM12 = 16KT
LATM24 = 9.3N LONM24 = 33.6W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 60NM RD34SE = 100NM RD34SW = 100NM RD34NW = 60NM

The BAMD model is the most closest to Puerto Rico as the others are further south.
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#2 Postby Brent » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:00 pm

The GFDL just takes it just SW of Puerto Rico at the end of the run.

Image
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#3 Postby canegrl04 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:01 pm

Looks like all are in agreement this is either a GOM,or Florida cane.
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#4 Postby Hurricanehink » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:02 pm

Still the same strength? It looks better organized. I'm not complaining, though.
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#5 Postby dhweather » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:03 pm

Luis, the NHC track has you in the NE quad!

Of course, it's >72 hours, so I don't trust it. :)
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#6 Postby cycloneye » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:09 pm

And the 5 day forecast is worse as the margin of error is more big.
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#7 Postby Fego » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:28 pm

Can anyone explain the pros and con of each one of those models. I know that some are good in short range, others in long range. Thanks!
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