Accuweather 3 PM Discussion

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

Today's Discussion
POSTED: September 4, 2004 3:07 p.m.


Hurricane Frances, as of 2:00 p.m. EDT Saturday, was located near 26.9 north and 79.0 west, or about 70 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida. The storm is moving to the west-northwest at 5 mph. This motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, bringing the center of the storm to the Florida coast to near or just south of Vero Beach early Sunday morning. Regardless of the exact position of the center, the east coast of Florida will be battered by wind gusts over 60 mph with gusts over 100 mph along the central coast of Florida from Melbourne to West Palm Beach.

A hurricane warning remains in effect for the northwestern Bahamas. A hurricane warning also remains in effect for Florida's east coast from Florida City northward to Flagler Beach, including Lake Okeechobee. A tropical storm warning is in effect north of Flagler Beach to Altamaha Sound, Georgia. There is also a hurricane watch from north of Flagler Beach to Fernandina Beach. A tropical storm warning is in effect on the west coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island around the southern end of the peninsula to just south of Florida City on the southeast coast, and for the middle and upper Keys from south of Florida City to the Seven Mile Bridge, and for Florida Bay. A tropical storm watch is in effect for the west coast of Florida from north of Anna Maria Island to St. Marks. Maximum sustained winds are 105 mph with gusts to 125 mph, making Frances a Category 2 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. There have been some signs on radar of the large eye -- currently 70 miles in diameter -- trying to tighten which would result in an increase in the sustained winds. Whether it reaches the coast as a strong Category 2 or Category 3, where the center reaches the coast is not all that important. This is because it is so huge with hurricane-force winds (greater than 74 mph) extend up to 105 miles from the center in some portions of the storm and tropical storm-force winds (39 mph plus) extend out to 185 miles from the center. With this in mind, much of Florida will have winds gusting to 60-80 mph at times through Saturday night with higher gusts over the central east coast. Jupiter Inlet had a gust to 91 mph saturday morning, and 70-mph winds whipped through Boynton Beach. Devastatingly heavy rain will be a major problem over the next few days, as parts of the state will pick up 10 to perhaps 20 inches, leading to widespread flooding. Storm surge of 4-8 feet is likely near and north of where the center crosses the coast. The surge could have been worse, but since the coast curves northwestward, the storm will not be coming in perpendicularly. There can also be tornadoes in northern and central Florida and southern Georgia Sunday.

As of 11:00 a.m. EDT Saturday, Tropical Storm Ivan was located near 8.9 north and 38.9 west, or about 1575 miles east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph, and some intensification is expected over the next 24 hours. The storm is moving west near 18 mph. Recent computer model output shows this system moving nearly due west for the next several days, then taking a gradual turn to the northwest. Current trends in satellite images suggest Ivan is in a good position to intensify into a hurricane within the next 24-36 hours. Long range forecast models take Ivan into the Caribbean Tuesday night, then into the western Caribbean by the end of next week. There is great uncertainty where this system will end up toward the end of next week.

We are also keeping an eye on two other areas of disturbed weather. One is located about 1,300 miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. The other area of concern is located near 25 north and 40 west, or well northwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Both features have strong thunderstorms. However, both are being sheared at this point. The system well northeast of the Leewards is moving west-northwest, and there is some concern it could develop into a depression in a day or two.