Slow move W noted on Radar

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2779
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

Slow move W noted on Radar

#1 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:56 pm

Last couple of frames show the inner side of the west eye wall moving slowly west...... also reported on TWC but I needed to see it to believe it...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml
Last edited by Frank P on Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#2 Postby chris_fit » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:56 pm

Tom Terry CHANNEL 9 says it's moving NW, drifting speed.
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#3 Postby dennis1x1 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 2:58 pm

yep...looks like shell be onshore in about 3 hours
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#4 Postby dennis1x1 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:00 pm

just hit me how amazing the forecasting on this storm was....considering the model divergence......ft pierce has been pegged for days.

although the intensity forecast left someting to be desired...especially considering the models they use to forecast strengthening was calling for weakening and that was ignored...
Last edited by dennis1x1 on Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Top
Frank P
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2779
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 10:52 am
Location: Biloxi Beach, Ms
Contact:
Contact Frank P

#5 Postby Frank P » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:01 pm

looks just north of due west to me... maybe wnw... just don't have enough frames to confirm... but it is moving, but slow....
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#6 Postby Anonymous » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:03 pm

yep...looks like shell be onshore in about 3 hours


Wow, didnt know Frances was moving 20 mph.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
southerngale
Retired Staff
Retired Staff
Posts: 27418
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 1:27 am
Location: Southeast Texas (Beaumont area)

Re: Slow move W noted on Radar

#7 Postby southerngale » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:04 pm

Frank P wrote:Last couple of frames show the inner side of the west eye wall moving slowly west...... also reported on TWC but I needed to see it to believe it...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS.p ... kmlb.shtml


I compared two radar loops that end at 18:16 UTC and the other at 19:57 UTC and it does appear to have moved a little west, or slightly north of west. Also, the convection coming onshore is much stronger now.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
chris_fit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3261
Age: 42
Joined: Wed Sep 10, 2003 11:58 pm
Location: Tampa Bay Area, FL

#8 Postby chris_fit » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:04 pm

Houstoner wrote:
yep...looks like shell be onshore in about 3 hours


Wow, didnt know Frances was moving 20 mph.




LOL
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#9 Postby dennis1x1 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:10 pm

the western eyewall is not 60 miles offshore.....landfall is defined when the outermost of the eye touches land......that will be in about 3 hours at present rate.
0 likes   
Top
Anonymous

#10 Postby Anonymous » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:12 pm

No, I understand landfall as when a hurricane crosses the shore (meaning the lowest barometric pressure is read onshore). If the outer eyewall of Frances touches the shore, it (the center) will still be over water, thus not making it 'land' falling.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
dhweather
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6199
Joined: Sat Aug 14, 2004 9:29 pm
Location: Heath, TX
Contact:
Contact dhweather

#11 Postby dhweather » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:15 pm

Based on GR Level III, I'd say it's moving west, or just south of it.
0 likes   
Top
dennis1x1

#12 Postby dennis1x1 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:15 pm

nope. dont think so...looking for a link...but landfall is always declared when eye touches shore.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
AL Chili Pepper
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 873
Joined: Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:15 pm
Location: Mobile, AL

#13 Postby AL Chili Pepper » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:17 pm

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radbl ... &map.y=388

I've been watching this loop (small - 4 frames) for the last couple of hours, and it has moved to the west some. Interesting little vortex rotating around in the larger eye feature. Also looks like Melbourne's about to get some bad stuff.
0 likes   
Top
rtd2
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1183
Joined: Tue Aug 12, 2003 12:45 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#14 Postby rtd2 » Sat Sep 04, 2004 3:42 pm

Quote" nope. dont think so...looking for a link...but landfall is always declared when eye touches shore"





That is correct! Now if a storm has no closed eye what is the call then? Since they would use recon for fixes(find lowest press.) and NOT radar I would say the last recon before shore line would be a close enough fix to call it!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Ixolib
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2741
Age: 68
Joined: Sun Aug 08, 2004 8:55 pm
Location: Biloxi, MS

#15 Postby Ixolib » Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:08 pm

AL Chili Pepper wrote:http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&ID=MLB&type=N0R&frame=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&num=4&showstorms=0&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&map.x=496&map.y=388

I've been watching this loop (small - 4 frames) for the last couple of hours, and it has moved to the west some. Interesting little vortex rotating around in the larger eye feature. Also looks like Melbourne's about to get some bad stuff.


Also looks like the squalls/bands that come on shore are maintaining themselves pretty well. If theis motion continues, SWFL will soon be under the gun (again)...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
BonesXL
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 148
Joined: Sat May 15, 2004 10:17 am
Location: Homestead, Florida
Contact:
Contact BonesXL

#16 Postby BonesXL » Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:12 pm

Can I clear up the direction arguement:

11:00am 26.9N Latitude 78.8W Longitude

2:00pm 26.9N Latitude 79.0W Longitude....-Moving West

5:00pm 26.9N Latitude 79.3W Longitude....-Moving West

In short, the storm is drifting west.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
debbiet
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Sun Sep 14, 2003 5:23 pm
Location: Gloucester, Virginia

#17 Postby debbiet » Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:14 pm

I thought eye wall too, but unless I totally misunderstood them, TWC said landfall was considered when the CENTER of circulation crossed the shore, which with Frances was in the middle of what we see as the big eye.
0 likes   
Top
simplykristi
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1220
Joined: Sat May 10, 2003 1:59 pm
Location: Near KCMO
Contact:
Contact simplykristi

#18 Postby simplykristi » Sat Sep 04, 2004 4:37 pm

Looks like W Palm Beach will see the eye if Frances is moving west.

Kristi
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], StormWeather, Teban54 and 328 guests