5pm Ivan-60 mph winds, 994 mb pressure

[Brent]

Tropical Storm Ivan Forecast/Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 21:00Z on September 04, 2004

tropical storm center located near 9.1n 40.8w at 04/2100z
position accurate within 45 nm

present movement toward the west or 275 degrees at 17 kt

estimated minimum central pressure 994 mb
Max sustained winds 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt.
50 kt....... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt....... 60ne 100se 60sw 60nw.
12 ft seas..100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.
Winds and seas vary greatly in each quadrant. Radii in nautical
miles are the largest radii expected anywhere in that quadrant.

Repeat...center located near 9.1n 40.8w at 04/2100z
at 04/1800z center was located near 9.0n 39.9w

forecast valid 05/0600z 9.7n 43.3w
Max wind 60 kt...gusts 75 kt.
50 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
34 kt... 90ne 100se 60sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 05/1800z 10.4n 46.6w
Max wind 65 kt...gusts 80 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 06/0600z 11.4n 49.8w
Max wind 70 kt...gusts 85 kt.
64 kt... 20ne 20se 20sw 20nw.
50 kt... 40ne 40se 40sw 40nw.
34 kt... 90ne 90se 90sw 90nw.

Forecast valid 06/1800z 12.3n 53.0w
Max wind 75 kt...gusts 90 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Forecast valid 07/1800z 14.0n 59.5w
Max wind 85 kt...gusts 105 kt.
50 kt... 50ne 50se 50sw 50nw.
34 kt...100ne 100se 100sw 100nw.

Extended outlook. Note...errors for track have averaged near 250 nm
on day 4 and 325 nm on day 5...and for intensity near 20 kt each day

outlook valid 08/1800z 16.0n 65.5w
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Outlook valid 09/1800z 18.5n 70.5w...inland
Max wind 95 kt...gusts 115 kt.

Request for 3 hourly ship reports within 300 miles of 9.1n 40.8w

next advisory at 05/0300z

forecaster Pasch

[btsgmdad]

Someone please tell Ivan Russia is the other way, we don't need his type of immigrant over here.

[cycloneye]

Landfall at Hispanola.

[Brent]

Ummmm... weren't the winds 60 at 11am?

Tropical Storm Ivan Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM AST on September 04, 2004

...Ivan gradually becoming stronger over the tropical Atlantic...

At 5 PM AST...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Ivan was located
near latitude 9.1 north...longitude 40.8 west or about 1450
miles...2335 km...east-southeast of the Lesser Antilles.

Ivan is moving toward the west near 20 mph...32 km/hr...and this
motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now
near 65 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher gusts. A continued gradual
increase in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.

Repeating the 5 PM AST position... 9.1 N... 40.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 60 mph.
Minimum central pressure... 994 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM AST.

Forecaster Pasch

Tropical Storm Ivan Discussion Number 9

Statement as of 5:00 PM EDT on September 04, 2004

satellite images this afternoon show that Ivan has become better
organized. There is a band of deep convection that wraps
practically all the way around the system center...which using the
Dvorak technique gives a data T number of 3.5 or 55 kt for the
current intensity. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Ivan will
remain in a weak shear environment over the next several days.
So...continued intensification is likely.
A swift...mostly westward...motion continues. There are no
important changes to the synoptic reasoning behind the track
forecast since the previous advisories. A strong ridge is expected
to prevail to the north of the tropical cyclone. Therefore only a
gentle Bend to the north is forecast...without much decrease in
forward speed until late in the period.
Because of the typical track forecast errors at 5 days...the center
could easily pass south...or north...of the island of Hispaniola.
Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 04/2100z 9.1n 40.8w 50 kt
12hr VT 05/0600z 9.7n 43.3w 60 kt
24hr VT 05/1800z 10.4n 46.6w 65 kt
36hr VT 06/0600z 11.4n 49.8w 70 kt
48hr VT 06/1800z 12.3n 53.0w 75 kt
72hr VT 07/1800z 14.0n 59.5w 85 kt
96hr VT 08/1800z 16.0n 65.5w 95 kt
120hr VT 09/1800z 18.5n 70.5w 95 kt...inland over Hispaniola

[kevin]

Hispaniola will kill anything.

[btsgmdad]

Yep, bad news for Hispanola is good news for the USA.

[lilbump3000]

If its traveling quick enough it will not complete kill this thing.

[Derek Ortt]

the quicker motion will kill it quicker. Iris went from 130KT to a tropical wave over lower mountains in belize and mexico

[blizzard20]

This storm will be strong Hurricane in the bahamas area by the some time next week. Some of you people like to destroy a hurrinecane because it might go over that land area chance it won't go over that land area. I seen storms get stronger after they go over that area and then become stronger Hurricane north of that land area. This storm will cat 3 in the bahamas area.

[TerryAlly]

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now
near 65 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher gusts. A continued gradual
increase in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Something's wrong ... hurricane centre advisory says 60 mph not 65 mph

[ROCK]

This storm will be strong Hurricane in the bahamas area by the some time next week. Some of you people like to destroy a hurrinecane because it might go over that land area chance it won't go over that land area. I seen storms get stronger after they go over that area and then become stronger Hurricane north of that land area. This storm will cat 3 in the bahamas area.

some models show a southern track across the carib. 5 days out. I still feel a GOM event in 10 days. just my opinion....

[Brent]

Satellite images indicate that the maximum sustained winds are now
near 65 mph... 95 km/hr...with higher gusts. A continued gradual
increase in strength is forecast during the next 24 hours.

Something's wrong ... hurricane centre advisory says 60 mph not 65 mph

It's wrong. It was 60 mph at 11am and the NHC advisory said it has strengthened so it's 65 mph now.

[calidoug]

50 kt is not 65 mph

mph = knots * 1.15 (NOT: mph = knots + 15)

So, 50 kt = 57.5 mph

[Brent]

From the discussion:

satellite images this afternoon show that Ivan has become better
organized. There is a band of deep convection that wraps
practically all the way around the system center...which using the
Dvorak technique gives a data T number of 3.5 or 55 kt for the
current intensity. The SHIPS guidance suggests that Ivan will
remain in a weak shear environment over the next several days.
So...continued intensification is likely.

65 mph.

[canegrl04]

It says Ivan could easily pass NORTH OR SOUTH OF HISPANOLA.That doesn't mean a direct hit. Ivan will either pass over S.FLorida or go right into the GOM,which would be very bad news.Remeber Lili from 2002?She was a cat.5 but thankfully decreased before landfall due to a freak pool of cold water.

[calidoug]

That's what the *satellite* suggested, but the NHC went with 50kt, not 55kt, for their estimate.

Finally, 55kt = 63.25 mph.

Even if you average 50 and 55 kt, you get roughly 60 mph, not 65 mph.

It's strengthening. No need to hype it beyond reality.

[Brent]

Sorry, but if they hadn't used 55 kt for the intensity they should have said "The initial intensity will remain 50 kt". That statement leads me to believe it WAS 55 kt.

[CFL]

It says Ivan could easily pass NORTH OR SOUTH OF HISPANOLA.That doesn't mean a direct hit. Ivan will either pass over S.FLorida or go right into the GOM,which would be very bad news.Remeber Lili from 2002?She was a cat.5 but thankfully decreased before landfall due to a freak pool of cold water.

I sure hope it doesn't bother South Florida. Those poor folks can't take much more.