So, what are the New Orleans mets saying now?

[MGC]

As Frances track shifts futher and futher west? I am at work and will not be able to watch the evening news today......MGC

[Geoff Stormcloud]

Its the weekend. The big boys are kickin it. Weekend guys just say. Looks like this thing coould come a lot further west t han we first thought. Perhaps as far wext as Biloxi. But no panic....Yet.

[Brent]

NHC brings it inland between Destin and Panama City as a borderline Cat 1 hurricane. The models seem to be split with a few going west of that and a few keeping it inland over Florida.

[Frank P]

shoot, right now I'm wondering if it will get as far west as Florida.... see what the models will do with it as it continues to stall... relative to a potential NGOM event....

[TS Zack]

They say we shouldn't see any effect!

[BigO]

WWL and WGNO say there is a chance, but that it is ever so slight.

Considering how unpredictably this storm has behaved and how widely different the models have been at times, I'm not making any call on it until it is in the GOM and turns north. I can't think that as broad as this storm is that we would get absolutely no effect from it, but I'm an amateur.

For me, landfall at MS coast would be worse for me than a Cat 1 or 2 hit directly. I have a camp house on Lake Pontchartrain and the 'canes that hit there push all of the water onto the southshore of the lake and endanger it from wave battering. The house is 12' up off the water, but the last one to go through there had the water withion a foot of the bottom of the house with huge waves crashing over it. Georges wiped out 50 of the 55 camp houses that used to be out there.

[crazycajuncane]

Last night, Rob went out on a limb and said we would have great weather next week as Frances hits the Pandhandle.

He said it will drag in some dry air on this side. It doesn't look to be any problem for Louisiana at all.

Ivan is already on our mind.

[rtd2]

quote" Frances track shifts futher and futher west?"







Slight chance (up from 0 chance...lol) but they will say what NHC tells them

[goodlife]

this is what our local met posted a little earlier....his sat mini update

Frances continues on track. She is CRAWLING right now. In fact, radar shows she has stalled. This is bad news for the FL east coast because it looks as though the shear may be letting up a bit and there is a potential for some strengthening before landfall tonight. She is going to come onshore exactly where I thought - between Ft. Pierce and West Palm.

Computer guidance has shifted a little west this afternoon after she crosses FL and NHC has adjusted their track accordingly. I still foresee no problems for our area, maybe a slight chance for some spotty showers on Tuesday. Threat of heavy rain will be the main problem for the FL panhandle since the storm won't have much Gulf to go over to strengthen again. It could, perhaps be a tropical storm on its secondary landfall in the panhandle, maybe even a depression.

I'm going to go look at some more data and I'll have much more on all of this later this afternoon.

[Ixolib]

As Frances track shifts futher and futher west? I am at work and will not be able to watch the evening news today......MGC

Seems the N.O. guys are all continuing to stick to their allegence to the NHC. Here's a look at the thread that started on Thursday about this very topic...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=40922

[rtd2]

Quote:
Frances continues on track. She is CRAWLING right now. In fact, radar shows she has stalled. This is bad news for the FL east coast because it looks as though the shear may be letting up a bit and there is a potential for some strengthening before landfall tonight. She is going to come onshore exactly where I thought - between Ft. Pierce and West Palm.

Computer guidance has shifted a little west this afternoon after she crosses FL and NHC has adjusted their track accordingly. I still foresee no problems for our area, maybe a slight chance for some spotty showers on Tuesday. Threat of heavy rain will be the main problem for the FL panhandle since the storm won't have much Gulf to go over to strengthen again. It could, perhaps be a tropical storm on its secondary landfall in the panhandle, maybe even a depression.

I'm going to go look at some more data and I'll have much more on all of this later this afternoon.





ROLFLMAO!!!!!! "JUST WHERE I THOUGHT IT WOULD COME ASHORE"

[Janie34]

WWL can say what it wants, I suppose. NWS-Mobile is getting a bit concerned, though.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
346 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-051900-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
346 PM CDT SAT SEP 4 2004

...HURRICANE FRANCES TO AFFECT THE AREA BY MONDAY...

HURRICANE FRANCES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE ON THE EAST CENTRAL
COAST OF FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS A CATEGORY
TWO HURRICANE. FRANCES WILL THEN EMERGE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO LATE SUNDAY AND CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.

LATEST FORECASTS HAVE FRANCES MOVING ONSHORE AS A TROPICAL STORM LATE
MONDAY BETWEEN PENSACOLA AND PANAMA CITY. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS AS EARLY AS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND OKALOOSA COUNTY IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BY MIDDAY MONDAY. THE HIGHER WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE CENTER OF FRANCES IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE NORTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA.

THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE EASTERN COASTAL AREAS WILL BE FROM
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...WHILE INLAND AREAS COULD SEE WEAKER
SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE PRIMARY
THREAT INLAND WILL BE FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE
ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS
OVER 10 INCHES...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE TRACK OF FRANCES. THIS
COULD CREATE FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS
LATE MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

PLEASE KEEP IN MIND THAT ANY SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF FRANCES COULD
AFFECT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG WITH THE IMPACTS OF THIS STORM
DRAMATICALLY. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST UPDATES FROM THE TROPICAL
PREDICTION CENTER AND YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

AS WITH ANY LANDFALLING TROPICAL SYSTEM...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE POSSIBLE. GENERALLY THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR ANY TORNADOES
WILL BE IN THE RIGHT FRONT QUADRANT OF THE STORM.

STORM SURGE SHOULD NOT BE A PROBLEM ALONG COASTAL AREAS FROM DAUPHIN
ISLAND TO DESTIN ON THE PRESENT TRACK. HOWEVER...IF FRANCES MOVES
FURTHER WEST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED STORM SURGE COULD REACH 2 TO 4
FEET.

...TIDES...
HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 4 AM ALONG THE ALABAMA AND
NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

[goodlife]

uhh..there's a good bit of distance between Mobile and N.O. If I were in MObile...I'd be a bit concerned too..

[BigO]

For the record, I am not relying on NHC. That was a measured judgment based of several days of observations of the computer models. It has shifted from inland peninsula all the way over to between Appalachicola and Pensacola by my eyes...not an insignificant shift.

All I am saying is that I'd like to get it across the peninsula and into the GOM before I start making guesses as to whether or not we'll get any piece of Frances.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I've got the 5:00 local news on now---WWL-TV Channel 4, and I'll let you know what is said.

[Janie34]

uhh..there's a good bit of distance between Mobile and N.O.

Yes, I am aware of the distance between New Orleans and Mobile. I am also aware that Harrison and Jackson counties along the Mississippi coast are in the New Orleans CWA. The last time I checked, it was a fair distance between Pascagoula and New Orleans as well.

It is quite likely that if Mobile were innundated by heavy rain, Pascagoula would "share the bounty" so to speak and that was the reasoning behind my post. Its best to stay on ones toes, ja?

[Sean in New Orleans]

John Gumm says Panhandle of Florida...keeping an eye on Ivan, now..